Author Archives: Joel Hollingsworth

Tennessee opened as a 2.5-point favorite over the Gamecocks this week, and the line is now vacillating between 3 and 3.5. So . . . does the Statsy Preview Machine think the Vols will cover against South Carolina Saturday night? Let’s take a look and then decide whether we think it’s right.

From the perspective of Tennessee

Neither Tennessee nor South Carolina have played a game yet this year, so the SPM will be using the prior year’s data both for (1) scoring offense and defense, and (2) comps.

Tennessee’s Scoring Offense last year: 24.2
South Carolina’s Scoring Offense last year: 22.4

Tennessee’s Scoring Defense last year: 21.7
South Carolina’s Scoring Defense last year: 26.1

The South Carolina scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
South Carolina 26.1
BYU 25.5

Against BYU, Tennessee scored 26 points
Against South Carolina, Tennessee scored 41 points
So, against the two best comps, Tennessee is scoring 130% of what those teams usually give up.

Estimated points for Tennessee against South Carolina: 33.9

The South Carolina scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
South Carolina 22.4
UAB 23.1

Against UAB, Tennessee allowed 7 points
Against South Carolina, Tennessee allowed 21 points
So, against the two best comps, Tennessee is allowing 61% of what those teams usually score.

Estimated points for South Carolina against Tennessee: 13.7

Estimated score: Tennessee 33.9, South Carolina 13.7

From the perspective of South Carolina

South Carolina’s Scoring Offense last year: 22.4
Tennessee’s Scoring Offense last year: 24.2

South Carolina’s Scoring Defense last year: 26.1
Tennessee’s Scoring Defense last year: 21.7

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior South Carolina opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
Tennessee 21.7
Texas A&M 22.5

Against Tennessee, South Carolina scored 21 points
Against Texas A&M, South Carolina scored 6 points
So, against the two best comps, South Carolina is scoring 61% of what those teams usually give up.

Estimated points for South Carolina against Tennessee: 13.2

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior South Carolina opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
Tennessee 24.2
Missouri 25.3

Against Missouri, South Carolina allowed 34 points
Against Tennessee, South Carolina allowed 41 points
So, against the two best comps, South Carolina is allowing 152% of what those teams usually score.

Estimated points for Tennessee against South Carolina: 36.8

Estimated score: South Carolina 13.2, Tennessee 36.8

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 35.3, South Carolina 13.4

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee –21.9

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 19.4

That’s a huge difference between the SPM’s projected spread and the Vegas line. It’s so big, in fact, that it’s over the sweet spot and into possibly-wonky territory.

Eyeball adjustments

The estimated points for Tennessee is probably inflated a bit just based on last year’s numbers, as it relies on the Vols’ 41 points against South Carolina in their last meeting, which was a bit of an anomaly. We probably shouldn’t expect them to get that 130% of what teams usually give up unless JIM CHANEY YEAR 2 WOO. If we remove last year’s game, the next best comp is Indiana, a game in which the Vols basically scored what the Hoosiers averaged giving up. So, if we use 100% instead of 130%, we get an estimated point total for the Vols of 26 from Tennessee’s perspective. With that, the combined estimated points for the Vols (from both teams’ perspectives) falls to 31.5.

Similarly, removing UAB as the second-best comp for Carolina’s defense leaves Missouri as the next-best, and the Vols held them to about 80% of what they averaged last season. At 80% instead of 60%, that’s still only 18 points for the Gamecocks from Tennessee’s perspective. So, their cumulative points moves only from 13 to 16, and we still have the Vols doubling them up.

From South Carolina’s perspective, if we removed Tennessee’s 41 points scored against them last year and look at Kentucky instead, that moves their percentage to 78%, which would make the Vols points 19. Combined, that’s still 22 points for Tennessee against 13-16 for the Gamecocks.

As far as intangibles go, my gut is in accord with the machine this week. If there’s any such thing as a hot seat in a pandemic year, Will Muschamp is on it. And until I see otherwise, I’m believing in significant improvement from Tennessee’s offense in Jim Chaney’s second year. I like the Vols by at least a touchdown and am fairly confident in something more.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Tennessee 28, South Carolina 13. Both I and the Statsy Preview Machine like the Vols to cover in this one.

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, the Vols opened as 2.5-point favorites and are currently 3 – 3.5-point favorites. With an over/under of 43.5 – 48, that translates to something like Tennessee 24, South Carolina 21.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee 24-20 (Vols -4), and gives the Vols a 60% chance of winning.

Bottom line

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine loves the Vols and I like them a lot as either a 2.5- or 3.5-point favorite. It has overshot the sweet spot for the machine, though, so some suspicion is advised.

• Vegas: Tennessee, -3.5 (~Tennessee 24, South Carolina 21)
• SP+: Tennessee 24, South Carolina 20 (covers)
• SPM: Tennessee 35, South Carolina 13 (covers with a woo)
• Me: Tennessee 28, South Carolina 13 (covers)

What do y’all think?

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine got coronavirused after Week 1. Turns out, the thing is not a fan of teams starting the season at different times, as it was programmed to use weeks as a rough approximation of games played. But when it came up against matchups that featured teams with unequal number of games played and, in addition, for which one team had adequate comps from this season while the other did not, well, it kind of threw up all over its shoes.

An entire weekend in the shop, and it is now good as new and able to contend with teams playing opponents at different stages of their respective seasons. Last week, it went 10-5 (66.67%) overall, 8-2 (80%) in Category 2, and 3-1 (75%) in the favored Category 3 games. That makes up some ground from the first couple of weeks, and it is now, for the young season, 17-17 (50%) in Category 1, 11-5 (68.75%) in Category 2, and 5-3 (62.5%) in Category 3.

So, off we go.

As a reminder, there’s a reason we do this, and it might not be what you think. That link also includes an explanation of what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 4 Picks

With yet another (and probably not the last) word of warning about The Unknowable, here are the Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 4 of the 2020 college football season:

The six games in green are Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week.

What are you favorite games this week?

And now the real football season begins, as the SEC kicks off a 10-game conference-only schedule this week.

First up is this week’s college football TV schedule curated just for Vols fans. Again, this means a little something different this year. We’re assuming you’re hungry for pretty much anything resembling football at this point.

Thursday, September 24, 2020

Not a lot to see here, but it’s Thursday night of a real college football week now that the SEC is playing games. And just the general sound of ESPN — the on-air personalities, the theme music, etc. — warms a heart.

Friday, September 25, 2020

This may be a maybe-maybe-not game for you, depending on how hungry you still are for anything resembling football. Honestly, I probably won’t catch this one.

Gameday, September 26, 2020

And finally, it’s the SEC all day, baby! At noon, we have two future Vols opponents (Week 4 and Week 8). The Vols are competing in the East, so we’re rooting for West teams over East teams every time to get a leg up on the standings. Kentucky’s no slouch, but Auburn should get them and help the Vols a bit right out of the gate.

The afternoon slot features our first look at Georgia, which should be downright frightening on defense but possibly anything but on offense. New Hogs head man Sam Pittman goes up against his former team, and although they’re not likely to score many (if any) points, maybe he can do something on defense. Woo Pig Sooie.

And then, finally, it’s Football Time in Tennessee, although it’s actually taking place in the Palmetto State as the Vols travel to South Carolina to take on the Gamecocks at 7:30 on the SEC Network. I’m liking the Vols a lot in this one. But don’t forget to set your DVR to catch two other future Vols opponents in Vanderbilt and Texas A&M taking place in the same time slot.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the South Carolina Gamecocks. This obviously uses last year’s data for both teams, but assuming the teams don’t deviate too far from who they were in 2019, the stat matchups suggest that the Vols defense should give its offense plenty of time to figure out whether it wants to lean on the run or the pass against the Gamecocks.

Details below.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

To the extent that last year is any indication (which is questionable), the Vols should be able to protect Jarrett Guarantano, and the offense should be able to convert third downs at a pretty good percentage.

Where’s the danger?

Watch out for interceptions, and brace for struggles on first down. If either one of those things turns out not to be a problem, that’s a very good sign.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

I’d think that Jim Chaney is going to want to test the run game against these guys. Even though it looks like the o-line would be able to protect Guarantano all day, South Carolina’s secondary appears to be a bigger threat to the Vols’ passing game than the Gamecocks’ run defense does to Tennessee’s run game, which should be much improved this year. I’d start there and see what happens.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

The Gamecocks were not a threat through the air to anyone last year, and Tennesse’s defense ranks well in defending the pass. They have a new quarterback this year, but we’ll see whether that’s an improvement or not. Overall, their offense is not much of a threat at all, so the Vols should be able to pin them down early and keep them there most of the game.

Where’s the danger?

Mistakes and the general wonkiness introduced into the system by the virus.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Do what you do. Focus on discipline and don’t make mistakes, and the defense should fine.

Special teams

Link to table

Assuming the Vols can find someone to fill the big shoes of Marquez Callaway in the punt return game (Eric Gray, Velus Jones?), Tennessee should have an advantage in punt returns. South Carolina appears to have an advantage in actual punting, though.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Not much to see here except that the Gamecocks were better last year than the Vols in the turnover game. We’ll see whether the Vols can make any progress there.

As we prep for the 2020 season, here’s a quick look at how the Vols’ national rankings have trended in each of the official NCAA stat categories for the past seven years.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Did well last year: Passing Yards per Completion, sacks allowed, 3rd down conversion percentage

Did not do well last year: 4th down conversion percentage, completion percentage, interceptions, total offense, scoring offense . . .

With the exception of the top four categories, this whole thing leans into the basement. We’re expecting to see some major improvement overall on the offense this fall, but we’ll obviously have to wait and see.

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Did well last year: Getting interceptions, passing yards allowed, total defense, passing efficiency defense, scoring defense, getting sacks

Did not do well last year: Getting tackles for loss

Conversely, with the exception of tackles for loss (which you would think would trend right along with sacks but did not in this case), the entire defense is trending toward the penthouse. We haven’t seen that much green since 2014. A belated high-five to John Jancek.

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Did well last year: Punt returns, kickoff return defense

Needs attention: There really wasn’t anything the Vols were really bad at on special teams last year, but they could improve in the punt game.

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Um . . .

Did not do well last year: Fumbles Recovered

There’s a lot of room for improvement in both penalties and turnovers this year. The team was not very good at either keeping possession or taking it from the other team last fall, and there are a lot of hidden yards in the penalty department, as long as fixing that doesn’t come at the cost of necessary aggression.