Turnovers. Anathema to college football. A temporary indiscretion that holds the power to undo untold amounts of hard work. In an instant, they can ruin your play, your day, or even your season.

Tennessee had four of them yesterday against the Kentucky Wildcats, and they all came in such rapid succession that it sucked the wind out of the sails for the rest of the game.

The Vols’ offense punted on its first series after a 32-yard drive and then recovered a Kentucky fumble at the Wildcats’ 45-yard line. Tennessee then drove to the 26, but fumbled when the running back bumped into quarterback Jarrett Guarantano’s arm as he was beginning his throwing motion. Kentucky recovered.

No harm done. Yet. The defense forced a punt after Kentucky went only 9 yards, and although the punt flipped the field, the Vols got the ball back.

And then came the harm. With fury and malice.

Guarantano threw a deep out route to the opposite side of the field, and defensive back Kelvin Joseph jumped the route, intercepted the ball, and ran it back 41 yards for a touchdown.

On the Vols’ next series, Guarantano led the team from its own 25-yard line to the Kentucky 28, but then threw another interception, this one to Jamin Davis, who ran it back 85 yards for another touchdown.

Jeremy Pruitt sat Guarantano and gave the reins to J.T. Shrout for the next series. The offense ran one play for 3 yards, had a personal foul penalty on the next, and then Shrout threw an interception. Seven plays later, Kentucky converted that gift into a field goal.

At that point, Kentucky had only 56 total yards, but led 17-0. The drive chart looked like this:

That’s not how drive charts are supposed to look.

Going back to the second half against Georgia last week, Tennessee has had two fumbles, two interceptions, a fumble recovered for a touchdown, two interceptions returned for touchdowns, and 21 instant points given up by the offense in only four quarters of football.

Whatever superlative you want to use to describe that, it fits. You just can’t win that way. It’s how an otherwise evenly-matched game becomes a blowout in the wrong direction.

Tennessee and Kentucky were within seven total yards of each other yesterday. They were within five passing yards and 12 rushing yards of each other. They had an equal number of first downs. And Kentucky won 34-7 because Tennessee had four turnovers.

Just how bad does it hurt?

The Vols didn’t just go on a turnover binge, they took out a credit line and went to 5th Avenue. Football Study Hall estimates that each turnover is generally worth about 5 points on the scoreboard. Sometimes they are worth less, sometimes more, as the continuum runs from a mere lost opportunity all the way to a lost opportunity plus 7 points for the other team on the same play. Interceptions and fumbles recovered and ran back for touchdowns are the most outlandish purchases, and the Vols’ have been going deep into debt the last four quarters.

What in the world has happened?

That, of course, is the Big Question. Countless fingers are currently aimed directly at Guarantano, and he’s certainly a person of interest in the lineup. Many are also pointing at that nearly-perfect-from-a-recruiting-stars-standpoint offensive line.

We should also give proper credit to the opposing defenses. Georgia’s defense is one that could be historically elite by the end of the season.

But what about Kentucky’s? If you’re like me, you probably attributed the Wildcats’ six interceptions against Mississippi State last week to some combination of luck and a sputtering Mike Leach Air Raid. However, Kentucky is currently second in the nation in passes intercepted and tied for first in interceptions returned for touchdowns.

It’s possible that that result has more to do with Kentucky’s opponents than it does with Kentucky — Arkansas is first in interceptions and tied with Kentucky for first in interceptions returned for touchdowns, and both Arkansas and Kentucky have played Mississippi State — but then again, maybe the Wildcats are just ballhawks.

Whatever the case, giving the ball to the other team has to stop. Right now.

Shockingly, we didn’t win the gold

Oddly enough, it wasn’t just Tennessee that had problems with turnovers or pick sixes yesterday. At one point during the day, I heard an SEC announcer say that there had been six pick sixes on the day. Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral threw six interceptions against Arkansas, including two pick sixes. (Also odd: He was never replaced despite Ole Miss having a capable second-stringer.)

I don’t know whether there ended up being more than six pick sixes yesterday, but even six is a lot. And Tennessee had two of them. On back-to-back possessions. Sandwiched by a fumble and another interception. On the heels of a flurry of turnovers in the prior game that also included a fumble returned for a touchdown.

Turnovers may be epidemic, but the Vols are sicker than most with the possible exception of Ole Miss.

There were other problems as well

Turnovers played the lead in yesterday’s tragedy, but there were several other villains at work in supporting roles as well. While Kentucky had only one ten-yard penalty, the Vols had six for 63 yards.

Field position was also a problem. Here are the starting positions for Tennessee:

• TN 31
• KY 45
• TN 19
• TN 25
• TN 25
• TN 23
• TN 21
• TN 16
• TN 25
• TN 28

Meanwhile, here are the starting positions for Kentucky:

• KY 25
• KY 20
• KY 27 (after fumble)
• (Pick six)
• (Pick six)
• TN 37 (after interception)
• KY 25
• KY 36
• KY 24
• TN 40
• KY 46
• KY 10

Tennessee’s best starting field position was barely over midfield, and it happened only once. Everything else was basically 75 yards from the end zone.

On the other side, Kentucky had two possessions with a starting field position of zero (because its defense scored), two more on Tennesee’s side of the field, and another almost to midfield. Much of that advantage was a direct result of the turnovers, of course, but the Wildcats also had a significant advantage in the punting game, as Max Duffy had a solid average of 46.7 yards per punt while Paxton Brooks averaged only 37.8 on five punts. That’s basically another 40-50 yard advantage in the punting game.

Progress is not a straight line

If there is a silver lining to yesterday and the second half of the Georgia game, it’s this: As Will reminded us after the Georgia game, progress is not a straight line. I don’t know about you, but I fell prey to believing otherwise. I let myself think that because the Vols took care of business against the second tier of the SEC East last year, we were past that nonsense. I focused only on the next step, which was to start knocking off Georgia, Florida, and Alabama every once in a while.

But we can’t just pass a milestone and cross it off the list. This is a ongoing race, not a checklist, and you can’t just chase after your target without also watching your back.

The upside of progress not being a straight line is that sometimes surprising jumps in progress can follow directly on the heels of regression. We saw that play out in 2019. Let’s see what happens in the remainder of 2020.

Tennessee opened as a 6.5-point favorite over Kentucky this week, and the line has since moved to Tennessee -6. Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks about that.

From the perspective of Tennessee

Each team has played three games in 2020, so the machine will only look at current year data.

• Tennessee’s Scoring Offense: 29
• Kentucky’s Scoring Offense: 26
• Tennessee’s Scoring Defense: 27.7
• Kentucky’s Scoring Defense: 24.3

Tennessee’s offense against Kentucky’s defense

Kentucky’s scoring defense of 24.3 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• South Carolina 25.3
• Georgia 12.3

In case you’re wondering like I was, Missouri’s an even worse comp than Georgia, as the Tigers’ scoring defense is currently 38.

Tennessee scored 21 points against Georgia and 31 points against South Carolina. Combined, that’s 138% of what those teams usually give up, so the estimated points for Tennessee against Kentucky is 33.6.

Kentucky’s offense against Tennessee’s defense

Kentucky’s scoring offense of 26 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Missouri 25.3
• South Carolina 30.7

Tennessee allowed Missouri 12 points South Carolina 27 points, which combined is 70% of what those teams usually score. So the estimated points for Kentucky against Tennessee is 18.2.

Estimated score: Tennessee 33.6, Kentucky 18.2

From the perspective of Kentucky

Kentucky’s offense against Tennessee’s defense

Tennessee’s scoring defense of 27.7 is most similar to the following prior Kentucky opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Mississippi State 26.3
• Auburn 22.7

Kentucky scored 13 points against Auburn and 24 points against Mississippi State. Combined, that is 76% of what those teams usually give up. Estimated points for Kentucky against Tennessee: 21.

Tennessee’s offense against Kentucky’s defense

Tennessee’s scoring offense of 29 is most similar to the following prior Kentucky opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Auburn 21.7
• Mississippi State 20

Kentucky allowed 29 points to Auburn and 2 points to Mississippi State [FLAG!]. That’s 74% of what those teams usually score, which makes the estimated points for Tennessee against Kentucky: 21.5.

Estimated score: Kentucky 21, Tennessee 21.5

SPM Final Estimates

Combining the results from both perspectives, here’s what we get:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 27.5, Kentucky 19.6

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee -7.9

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 1.4

That makes this yet another Category 1 game for the Statsy Preview Machine, meaning it’s not overly confident about its conclusion that Tennessee will cover because it is not far off from the Vegas spread.

Eyeball adjustments

The only thing that really jumps out at me from the above concerns Mississippi State’s offense as a comp for judging Kentucky’s defense. Leach’s Air Raid exploded onto the scene with 44 points against LSU. It was then immediately grounded with 14 points against Arkansas and 2 points against Kentucky. Also, LSU’s defense appears to be suspect, as it allowed 45 points to Missouri, a team that scored only 12 points against the Vols. Also also, Auburn scored more points against Kentucky than they usually get.

For those reasons, I am highly skeptical of Mississippi State as a reliable comp and thus the estimated points for Tennessee against Kentucky from Kentucky’s perspective. If we exclude Mississippi State as a comp, that leaves Ole Miss as the only other possible comp for this year. The Rebels’ scoring offense is 41.7, and they got 42 total points (35 in regulation) against the Wildcats. For regulation, that’s 84% of what they usually get. Combining that with the Auburn comps, those teams got essentially 100% of what they usually get, which would mean Tennessee would score what it usually does: 29. So, the estimated points for Tennessee against Kentucky from Kentucky’s perspective would be 29 instead of 21.5. That would make the Kentucky perspective Tennessee 29, Kentucky 21, and the cumulative result Tennessee 31.3, Kentucky 19.6. That would make Tennessee an 11.5-point favorite.

So, my eyeballs are raising their eyebrows at one component of the Statsy Preview Machine’s analysis and going instead with a predicted score of Tennessee 31, Kentucky 20. Both I and the Statsy Preview Machine agree, though, that the Vols should cover the 6- to 6.5-point spread this week.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas has Tennessee as a 6- (current) to 6.5-point (opening) favorite. With an over/under of 46-49, that translates to something like Tennessee 27, Kentucky 21.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee by 5.2 (Vols 27, Wildcats 22) and gives the Vols a 62% chance of winning. He’s using a 6-point spread and does not like the Vols to cover.

Bottom line

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks the Vols will cover either the opening 6.5-point or the current 6-point spread. I do as well. But it’s close enough to not feel especially confident about it.

• Vegas: Tennessee 27, Kentucky 21 (Vols -6 to -6.5)
• SP+: Tennessee 27, Kentucky 22 (doesn’t cover)
• GRT’s SPM: Tennessee 28, Kentucky 20 (covers)
• Me: Tennessee 31, Kentucky 20 (covers)

Season results on Tennessee games

• Week 4: The SPM and I were both right (albeit overconfident) in saying the Vols would cover against South Carolina.
• Week 5: The SPM and I were both wrong in thinking the Vols would not cover and would win by only 6 points. They won by 23.
• Week 6: The SPM was right, but I was wrong. The SPM predicted Georgia to cover a 14.5-point spread with a score of Georgia 29, Tennessee 12, while my eyeball adjustment revised that to say the Bulldogs would not cover with a score of Georgia 24, Tennessee 20. Georgia covered with a score of Georgia 44, Tennessee 21.

What do y’all think?

News flash: Spreads matter. We generally measure the GRT Statsy Preview Machine against the Vegas opening spreads, and although the machine has done well in the past, it’s only batting .500 so far this season. Last week was particularly bad: Against Vegas opening spreads, it went 11-16 (40.74%) overall, 3-7 (30%) in Category 2, and 1-3 (25%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 57-58 (49.57%) in Category 1, 25-24 (51.02%) in Category 2, and 11-11 (50%) in Category 3.

No big deal, it’s a weird season after all, right?

But the machine is tearing it up if you measure it against the same spreads that other systems are using. For instance, against the same spreads that SP+ measures against, our machine went 19-8 (70.37%) overall for the second week in a row last week. For the season against those spreads, it’s 70-45 (60.87%). So yeah, spreads matter.

SP+ went 11-16 (40.74%) against its spreads last week. It did slightly better against the same spreads we use (Vegas opening spreads), as it was 12-15 (44.44%). Against Vegas opening spreads for the season, it is still a killer 70-45 (60.87%).

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 7 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 7 Picks

Here’s what the machine is thinking this week:

There are five Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week.

What are you favorite games this week?

College football starts early this week with a game tonight between scrappy Coastal Carolina and No. 21 Louisiana. Old friends Georgia State take on Arkansas State tomorrow night, and Friday features a couple of ranked non-Power 5 teams in action on ESPN.

The Vols host Kentucky at noon on the SEC Network, and then there are five (Vanderbilt-Missouri got postponed) other SEC games to watch on Gameday, including the big one, No. 3 Georgia at No. 2 Alabama at 8:00 on CBS.

First up is this week’s college football TV schedule curated just for Vols fans. A full and searchable college football TV schedule for this week is below the curated version.

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

Maybe?

Thursday, October 15, 2020

Go Panthers?

Friday, October 16, 2020

Again, maybe?

Gameday, October 17, 2020

The main event for Vols fans is Tennessee taking on Kentucky at high noon on the SEC Network. But set your DVRs for the Auburn-South Carolina game, too, to get a look at how Auburn is doing against a former opponent of the Vols.

The afternoon slate will provide a look at three future Vols’ opponents in Florida, Arkansas, and Texas A&M.

The big game — future Vols’ opponent No. 2 Alabama and former Vols’ opponent No. 3 Georgia — gets an 8:00 kick on CBS. The Vanderbilt-Missouri game was postponed.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Kentucky Wildcats.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Sigh. Passing game?

Where’s the danger?

It looks like it’s going to be difficult to run against these guys, and it looks like our third down conversion problems aren’t going to get any better this week. Basically, Kentucky may not be up to Georgia’s level on defense, but Tennessee’s offense is going to have its hands full again this weekend.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Do better. Don’t turn the ball over. Hope the defense can carry the day.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Okay, that’s better. The Vols appear to have a somewhat significant advantage on defense over Kentucky in most areas . . .

Where’s the danger?

. . . except in the run game and on third down. Also, Kentucky apparently doesn’t throw interceptions.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

What I said against Georgia holds true in this game: Win first down. Get them off schedule to get an advantage on third down and then win third down. Any turnover in our favor will be really, really valuable.

Special teams

Link to table

The Vols appear to have the advantage on special teams.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

We’ve seen how much this can change in a week, so it’s hard to say whether either team has an actual advantage here. Just protect the ball and limit the penalties.