Last week some time, the SEC Network rolled out a video series that showed its analysts making game-by-game predictions for the season. In the Tennessee edition of that series, Matt Stinchcomb had the Vols going 6-6, losing to cross-divisional opponents Alabama and LSU, SEC East rivals Florida and Georgia, and Kentucky and Missouri to boot.
It’s an interesting exercise and an effective way to pass the time during the offseason, but it’s more helpful to do the same thing for every team in the SEC East to see who is most likely to head to Atlanta to represent the division.
Here’s my version of that exercise:
Tennessee has no margin for error
If the Vols want to control their own destiny, they basically just need to beat both Florida and Georgia (and then not lose other games they shouldn’t). If you assume Tennessee loses to both Alabama and LSU in the West, then you’re already at 6-2, not even accounting for the Florida and Georgia games.
Looking at Georgia’s schedule, the only game you really feel comfortable putting in the loss category is the Auburn game. For the 6-2 Vols to catch the Bulldogs, somebody needs to give them a second SEC loss and Tennessee needs to not lose any additional SEC games. So, Georgia needs to lose to Auburn and Tennessee for the Vols to get ahead of them. They’re really not likely to lose another SEC game unless it’s to Florida. More on the implications of that in a minute.
That also means, of course, that Tennessee not only has to beat Georgia, it has to beat Florida, too. If the Vols fall to 5-3, they’re likely behind Georgia at a likely 6-2 despite beating them head-to-head. At that point, the only real candidate to give Georgia its third loss is Florida. But if the Gators beat both Tennessee and Georgia, then they’re likely at 7-1 and the Vols getting ahead of Georgia doesn’t do them any good.
Bottom line, the Vols need to beat both Florida and Georgia to make it to the SEC Championship.
But wait. What about LSU?
The above scenarios all assume that the Vols lose to the LSU Tigers on November 18, but that may not actually be as much of a given as it seems. Sure, the preseason statistics all give a not insignificant edge to the Tigers, but LSU is a lot like Tennessee this year in that nobody really knows what to make of them. They could be every bit as good as their talent suggests they should be. Or, they could fail to live up to expectations or even totally self-destruct by November.
So yeah, if you assume the Tigers are as good as they should be, then Tennessee essentially starts the season with two losses (Alabama and LSU) while Florida and Georgia each start with only one (LSU and Auburn, respectively). In that scenario, the Vols are at a disadvantage that really can only be overcome by beating both Florida and Georgia and not losing any other games.
But, if you instead assume that LSU is a 50/50 game, then the Vols’ disadvantage in the SEC East is somewhat mitigated. In that case, the Vols start the season with one loss (Alabama) and three 50/50 games (LSU, Florida, and Georgia). Georgia also starts with one loss (Auburn), but has only two 50/50 games (Tennessee and Florida), and Florida starts with three 50/50 games (LSU, Tennessee, and Georgia), but zero losses. Tennessee is still at a disadvantage if LSU is merely good instead of great, but the Vols would be in somewhat better shape than under the alternative.
If you can only get one, get Georgia
Even if the Vols manage to win against LSU, the Vols’ hopes are still tied to what happens with the Gators and the Bulldogs, and Georgia appears to matter most.
If Tennessee beats Florida but loses to Georgia, the Vols would likely be 6-2 and ahead of the Gators, who would likely be 5-3. But the Bulldogs would likely be 7-1 and ahead of everybody.
On the other hand, if Tennessee beats Georgia but loses to Florida, all three teams would likely be 6-2, and we’d have rock-paper-scissors with each team having only one head-to-head over another. Florida and Georgia would likely have late losses to Florida State and Auburn, while Tennessee would have a late win over LSU, and perhaps the division tiebreakers that rely on rankings would work in the Vols’ favor.
So if you have to pick one game to win between Florida and Georgia, pick Georgia.
Win ’em all
There are, of course, countless scenarios heading into the season, and if the Vols win every game, nothing else matters. But with a cross-divisional schedule that (inappropriately, in my view) counts toward divisional standings and is less favorable than those of its SEC East rivals, it appears to make the head-to-head matchups with SEC East Rivals all-or-nothing propositions for the Vols.
If you can get both, get both.
If you can only get one, get Georgia.
And if you can’t get either, hope for chaos and magic against LSU late in the season.
