Author Archives: Joel Hollingsworth

VolQuest is reporting that Tennessee safety Todd Kelly, Jr. is out indefinitely with continuing knee problems. Mike Griffith of SEC Country cites a source in saying that Kelly won’t play tomorrow “on account of a potential-season-ending knee injury.” From that statement, it’s hard to tell whether Kelly’s already had surgery or whether the surgery itself is merely a possibility. The remainder of the article makes it sound like they’re still trying to figure out whether surgery is the best course of action. Either way, Kelly is out for some extended period of time.

Kelly has only played sparingly in the first two games, as Nigel Warrior and Micah Abernathy have gotten the bulk of the work at safety.

Kelly was fourth on our early-August list of the defensive players the team could least afford to lose to injury. He was behind Kahlil McKenzie, Kendal Vickers, Cortez McDowell, and Darrin Kirkland Jr., the latter of whom has already been lost for the season. The emergence of Daniel Bituli at linebacker has eased the dependence on Cortez McDowell a bit, but losing Kelly for an extended period of time is a blow, as it means that the defense will be without two of its five most important players.

 

We’ve spent a good couple of weeks now evaluating Team 121, and most of our angst has been in the form of fretting over the various warts of the Vols’ defense. We probably won’t know for a few weeks still whether the run defense actually hasn’t improved from last season or whether the early season performance can indeed be chalked up entirely to the triple option. But somehow, numbers that would normally be alarming headed into a rivalry game with Florida don’t seem so frightening this time around.

Because Florida’s got their own problems.

Florida Gators Offense

 

Observations. When I first loaded this up, I was looking at the most current stats, and they showed Florida’s offense as the absolute worst FBS team in the nation in four categories and in the bottom four in three more. I knew they’d been bad that first week, but had they actually been the absolute worst? Please tell me that it’s so.

It was only then that it dawned on me that the rankings compare teams with one game (Florida, for instance, who had to cancel their game last week) to teams with two, and that those numbers aren’t necessarily indicative of how the team really compares to others.

So, I re-did everything from scratch looking just at the first full week’s stats.

Guess what? Florida’s offense is actually terrible. Maybe not the worst, but still rotten poultry rancid bad.

Bottom three in rushing offense. Bottom eight on first down and third down, as well as in sacks allowed and total offense. Not much better in the red zone or at allowing tackles for loss. Still in double digits in scoring and passing efficiency. Barely out of the gutter in completion percentage and passing yards.

They haven’t yet thrown an interception, so if you’re giving participation trophies, that’s what you tell the engraver.

Yes, all of this could change against Tennessee, especially with the Vols’ defense looking similarly inept in its first game. But, goodness, Florida’s offense looked woeful against Michigan.

Florida Gators Defense

 

Observations. Much of this was actually surprising to me. Florida has accomplished what it has the past couple of seasons on the strength of its defense, and everyone knows that it was the defense that scored 14 of the team’s 17 points in the season opener. So, I expected to see some good numbers here.

There are, indeed, some good numbers. There’s the #1-ranking in defensive touchdowns you expected, and there’s the interceptions to go with it. There’s also the behind-the-line havoc stats in sacks and TFLs, which will provide a major challenge to Tennessee’s offensive line Saturday.

But after that, the Gators defense don’t look up to its usual standards, at least based on its first game stats. Rushing defense, in particular, looks suspect, which should keep Tennessee running back John Kelly’s smile on full power this week.

Basically, it looks like somebody’s scoring when the Gators are on defense. It might be you, but it might be them. Exciting!

Florida Gators Special Teams

 

Observations. Special teams stats are especially wonky early in the season, so don’t make too much of any of this. The main takeaway here, I think, is that they had four touchbacks on four kickoffs, so one of the Vols’ advantages (the kickoff return team) is probably already gone.

Florida Gators Turnovers and Penalties

 

Observations. With two pick sixes, you’d expect to see better numbers in overall turnovers, but no. They’re also not especially disciplined, as measured by penalties. But again, it’s one game’s worth of stats.

Florida Gators Players to Watch – Offense

 

Observations. As you’d expect, there’s nothing too frightening here, except the appearance of two defensive players on the list of offensive players to watch. It appears that Malik Zaire was maybe a tad bit more efficient than Feleipe Franks, but I wouldn’t conclude that that means he’ll play more than Franks on Saturday.

Note the glaring absence of any running back on that list at all. If there are any go-to guys in the passing game, they appear to be sophomore wide receivers Josh Hammond and Tyrie Cleveland. Combined, they had seven receptions for 127 yards against Michigan.

Florida Gators Players to Watch – Defense

 

Observations. The defensive guys are the ones to watch out for as potential game-changers Saturday. Defensive backs Duke Dawson and CJ Henderson are the guys who had pick sixes against the Wolverines, and defensive lineman Jordan Sherit had two sacks. DB Nick Washington led the team in tackles with nine. If you want to conclude something about the linebackers based on that stat, feel free.

Florida Gators Players to Watch – Special Teams

 

Observations. Kicker Eddy Pineiro hit only one of two field goal attempts in the first game.

Conclusion and prediction

As we discussed on our podcast last night, the key to this game is going to be which of Florida’s offense and Tennessee’s defense finds itself first and best. Apart from that, the Vols should lean on John Kelly running angry and hope the offensive line can hold its own against Florida’s defensive line. Be careful in the passing game, as Florida’s DBs are ball hawks, but don’t be too careful, as there are opportunities in the passing game as well.

The lines and the computer models all have Florida in this one, and I usually trust those things. But I just don’t understand either of them on this one, and I’m going with the Vols not just to cover but to win outright, 24-17.

In addition to the Vols-Gators game as the SEC Game of the Week on CBS at 3:30, there’s a lot of opportunity for Vols fans to scout out Tennessee’s future opponents this week. Thursday matters not at all to Vols fans, but you can ease into your weekend with an early scout of Tennessee’s next opponent on Friday night.

Saturday at noon, you have an opportunity to either increase or decrease your anxiety about the Gators by watching Michigan take on Air Force, and then it’s go time for Tennessee-Florida at 3:30. Regardless of your mood after the game, the evening provides an opportunity to bounce around among several future opponents of the Vols, plus a big national game between #3 Clemson and #14 Louisville.

Here’s the Week 3 college football TV schedule, curated for Vols fans. The full schedule as at the bottom of the post.

Thursday, September 14

 

Thursday night’s a good opportunity to put some honey-do credit in the bank if you need it, as no Vols fan really cares much one way or the other about New Mexico or Boise State. But if you’re not doing anything else, why not?

Friday, September 15

 

Friday is a good opportunity to get a first look at UMass, who, if you haven’t realized it, comes to Neyland next week. It will help you look good next week at the office when you can name drop a couple of Minuteman players.

Gameday, September 16

And then it’s Gameday.

 

So, the main event on Saturday is the Vols-Gators game, of course. But beyond that, let me ask you a few questions you can answer in the comments:

• How do you want Michigan to look against Air Force?
• How do you want future SEC East opponents Georgia, Missouri, and Vanderbilt to look against non-conference competition?
• Same question, but for SEC West opponents Alabama and LSU.
• Between South Carolina and Kentucky, we’re rooting for Kentucky to pull off the upset, right?

Complete college football TV schedule for Week 3

And here’s the complete schedule for the week, paginated and searchable!

When the Vols take on the Gators this Saturday afternoon at 3:30 in Gainesville, it will be the first time since 2005 that the Gators are looking for revenge. Not that it matters, really. Being motivated by the prior season’s disappointment didn’t help Tennessee much for over a decade. What helps is actually being able to do something about it.

It’s well-documented that Florida’s offense has been staggering around like a blind drunk with an Uzi for at least a couple of seasons now, and this year’s opener against Michigan did nothing to sober it up. They managed only three points (14 of their 17 points came on two pick-sixes), and they played two quarterbacks, neither of whom looked very good at all.

On the other hand, most aren’t especially confident in Tennessee’s defense, either. After a terrible season last fall, they gave up 535 rushing yards to Georgia Tech and then played a middle-of-the-road FCS team that provided no sure answers to the all-important question of whether the opener was a fluke or the beginning of a repeat of last season. Questions (and not entirely comforting answers) about where Bob Shoop has his defensive linemen lining up are not helping to quell the anxiety.

But don’t fret just yet. VFL Daniel Hood says that it’s just too early to draw any hard and fast conclusions either way about the defense at this point:

“I just do not think there is anything you can really tell about them now,” Hood told Saturday Down South of the defense through two games. “We do not know if they are good, and we do not know if they are bad.”

The linked article does provide some glimmer of hope by noting that Alabama gave up 302 rushing yards to Georgia Southern’s triple option back in 2011. That’s reaching pretty deep in the diaper bag for a pacifier, but sometimes you just need your binky.

Whatever the case, it is almost certainly a good thing that the Vols expect to be able to return to a “regular defense” against the Gators this weekend. Plus, there are some very positive bits of data emerging for the Tennessee defense, including the fact that defensive end Kyle Phillips looks like he’s beginning to live up to high expectations and the fact that the defensive backs are both showing off a new (for them) technique in defending the deep pass and expecting graduate transfer Shaq Wiggins to finally be healthy enough to contribute this weekend.

And while the Gators offense versus the Tennessee defense may be a contest of who can find themselves first, the Vols’ offense will face a stout challenge going up against an always-good Gators defense.

Whatever happens, expect a typical Vols-Gators showdown, even as players on both teams find some solidarity in the common opponent of Hurricane Irma. After some uncertainty, the game is in fact going to be played as and where scheduled, and Tennessee’s campus police will be on hand to assist with gameday efforts in and around the stadium. Good for both of them. Priorities matter.

But pulling in the same direction will end there and at kickoff, and will probably include some good old-fashioned football malice. Tennessee wants to “start fast and hit them in the mouth,” and the Gators almost certainly have similar plans.

As offensive coordinator Larry Scott told media the other day, Tennessee-Florida is a “why” game:

“All I can say is, really in a nutshell, these are the reasons, these are the games that you come to Tennessee for,” offensive coordinator Larry Scott said. “It’s why you want to be a Tennessee Volunteer. The conference season has begun, and it just so happens that the opener is in Gainesville against the Florida Gators. That’s why you do it. That’s why you come here, that’s why you coach here, that’s why you play here, that’s why you’re here.”

Vols. Gators. It’s your why, and it’s this Saturday at 3:30.

We’ve been tracking the Vols’ statistical trends since 2011, first over at the old place and now here. Here’s our weekly update, after the Indiana State game.

Offensive observations: The offensive line seems to be doing its job so far, at least in not letting defensive lines disrupt plays behind the line of scrimmage. A Scoring Offense rank of #27 is a happy sign as well, although that likely has a lot to do with the two defenses played so far.

After that, we get into the mediocre for a while, and then the passing offense looks like it could use the most improvement. The run game could improve as well, though, which is kind of surprising.

The oddest thing is the contrast between a good job of putting points on the board despite not being particularly effective. Being good in the red zone and on third down helps.

Defensive observations: Don’t get too excited about that apparent improvement in Passing Yards Allowed, which is probably the byproduct of playing two run-first offenses.

The flip side of that coin is that you shouldn’t be too alarmed at the lack of sacks or interceptions at this point, either. Still, lots of work to be done here for the defense to wash away what happened against Georgia Tech.

Special Teams observations: First, those blocked kicks and punts stats are mostly useless and will be most of or all season long. But after that, hoo-wee, Tennessee’s special teams unit is really good and has been for several years now. Punter Trevor Daniel is an absolute weapon, and so is either or both of Evan Berry and the kickoff return team. Punt return defense could use some work.

Turnovers and Penalties observations: So far this season, Team 121 has been a disciplined team. Two turnovers against the Sycamores somewhat erased gains made in turnover margin against Georgia Tech, but so far, there’s not too much to complain about here.

As the data on 2017 continues to trickle in, let’s take a look at what to reasonably expect out of the Vols the rest of the way.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week. And just like last week, there’s a chance at the bottom of the post for you to contribute to the community survey on the same question.

The Vols after Indiana State

After a week of not knowing exactly what to make of a defense playing against Georgia Tech’s triple option, we’re now faced with not knowing exactly what to make of a team playing a middle-of-the-road FCS team.

What we do know is that the team got a lot of different players valuable reps on the field. They used two quarterbacks and five running backs, and nine different players caught a pass. Plus, the NCAA’s official stats say that 17 players have started both games, and, by my count, 71 guys have played in at least one game already this season.

So, that’s all good, but if we can’t really draw any conclusions about a poor defense against Georgia Tech, we also shouldn’t be too hasty about drawing any conclusions about that same defense against an FCS foe. So, woo for 100% on third down stops and all that, but it’s a muted woo.

We really can’t say much about the offense, either. Basically, we’re right around where we expected to be and don’t really know much more about the team than we did in the preseason, other than the identity of some of the guys on whom they’ll rely.

All of that is to say this: I’m not adjusting expectations about the Vols themselves at all after the first two weeks. I am making some adjustments based on Vols’ opponents, though.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia Tech (1-1, 0-0 ACC, NR)

• W1: Lost to Tennessee 42-41 in double overtime.
• W2: Beat Jacksonville State, 37-10.
• W3: At UCF
• W4: Pitt
• W5: North Carolina
• W6: Bye
• W7: At #17 Miami
• W8: Wake Forest
• W9: At #3 Clemson
• W10: At Virginia
• W11: #16 Virginia Tech
• W12: At Duke
• W13: #13 Georgia

Oh, my goodness, Jacksonville State held Georgia Tech to 210 yards, less than half of what we did! Our defense must therefore be twice as bad as the . . . hold, please, while I look up the Jacksonville State mascot . . . Gamecocks!

Whatever. The Yellow Jackets had this game in hand long before it was over. Draw whatever conclusions you want, but I’m going to wait and see.

9/9/17: Indiana State (0-1, 0-0 MVFC, NR)

• W1: Lost to E Illinois, 22-20.
• W2: Lost to Tennessee, 42-7.
• W3: At Liberty
• W4: Bye
• W5: At Illinois State
• W6: North Dakota State
• W7: At South Dakota
• W8: S Illinois
• W9: At Missouri State
• W10: Youngstown State
• W11: W Illinois
• W12: At Northern Iowa

We got about what we expected from these guys.

The Vols’ future opponents

9/16/17: Florida (0-1, 0-0 SEC, #24)

• W1: Lost to #11 Michigan, 33-17.
• W2: Canceled game with N Colorado.
• W3: #25 Tennessee
• W4: At Kentucky
• W5: Vanderbilt
• W6: #12 LSU
• W7: Texas A&M
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs #15 Georgia
• W10: At Missouri
• W11: At South Carolina
• W12: UAB
• W13: #10 Florida State

Expectations for a Vols win: No game, no change.

9/23/17: UMass (0-3, 0-0 IND, NR)

• W1: Lost to Hawaii, 38-35.
• W2: Lost to C. Carolina, 38-28.
• W3: Lost to Old Dominion, 17-7.
• W4: At Temple
• W5: At #25 Tennessee
• W6: Ohio
• W7: Bye
• W8: At #21 USF
• W9: Ga Southern
• W10: Appalachian State
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Maine
• W13: At BYU

Expectations for a Vols win: Goodness, UMass is having a tough time. They had 79 yards rushing, and, according to the lede from ESPN, got beat on a 7-yard quarterback sneak. That’s what it says. Keeping them at 96%.

9/30/17: Georgia (2-0, 0-0 SEC, #13)

• W1: Beat Appalachian State, 31-10. QB Jacob Eason went down, but freshman Jake Fromm looked good and took care of business.
• W2: Beat #24 Notre Dame, 20-19.
• W3: Samford
• W4: Mississippi State
• W5: At #25 Tennessee
• W6: At Vanderbilt
• W7: Missouri
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs. #22 Florida
• W10: South Carolina
• W11: At #13 Auburn
• W12: Kentucky
• W13: At Georgia Tech

Expectations for a Vols win: The Bulldogs got it done against the Fighting Irish, as Jake Fromm went 16-of-29 for 141 yards with one touchdown and one interception. They also ran for 185 yards, but only got 4.3 yards per carry. They won the game late when Davin Bellamy sacked the Notre Dame QB and made him fumble. Bottom line, Georgia looks good, but they don’t look invincible. I am going to move them from 45% to 40%, though.

10/14/17: South Carolina (2-0, 1-0 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat NC State, 35-28.
• W2: Beat Missouri, 31-13.
• W3: Kentucky
• W4: LA Tech
• W5: At Texas A&M
• W6: Arkansas
• W7: At #25 Tennessee
• W8: Bye
• W9: Vanderbilt
• W10: At #15 Georgia
• W11: #22 Florida
• W12: Wofford
• W13: #3 Clemson

Expectations for a Vols win: Missouri led South Carolina 10-0 in the second quarter before making the mistake of allowing the Gamecocks’ Deebo Samuel to field a kickoff, which he promptly took directly to the scoreboard for the second week in a row. Samuel then scored again 15 seconds later on a jet sweep after an interception by Jamyest Williams. The question: Was Missouri’s 13 points, after the Tigers put up 72 last week, an indication that they’re not all that or an indication that South Carolina is? We won’t know for sure for a few more weeks, but right now, the Gamecocks do look like a serious contender. I’m moving them from 69% to 60%.

10/21/17: Alabama (2-0, 0-0 SEC, #1)

• W1: Beat #3 Florida State, 24-7.
• W2: Beat Fresno State, 41-10.
• W3: Colorado State
• W4: At Vanderbilt
• W5: Ole Miss
• W6: At Texas A&M
• W7: Arkansas
• W8: #25 Tennessee
• W9: Bye
• W10: #12 LSU
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Mercer
• W13: At #13 Auburn

Expectations for a Vols win: No surprises here. Keeping the Tide at 10%.

10/28/17: Kentucky (2-0, 0-0 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Southern Miss, 24-17.
• W2: Best E Kentucky, 27-16.
• W3: At South Carolina
• W4: #22 Florida
• W5: E Michigan
• W6: Missouri
• W7: Bye
• W8: At Mississippi State
• W9: #25 Tennessee
• W10: Ole Miss
• W11: At Vanderbilt
• W12: At #15 Georgia
• W13: #17 Lousiville

Expectations for a Vols win: Hmm. Apparently, Kentucky was behind most of this game and needed two turnovers at crucial moments to pull it out. They’re probably going to be fine, but for now, I’m moving them from 65% to 70%.

11/4/17: Southern Miss (1-1, 0-0 C-USA, NR)

• W1: Lost to Kentucky, 24-17.
• W2: Beat Southern, 45-0.
• W3: At UL Monroe
• W4: Bye
• W5: North Texas
• W6: UTSA
• W7: UTEP
• W8: At LA Tech
• W9: UAB
• W10: At #25 Tennessee
• W11: At Rice
• W12: Charlotte
• W13: At Marshall

Expectations for a Vols win: That 45-0 win over Southern this week might be more impressive than it seems, as Southern Miss had 28 of those 45 points in the first quarter. It probably shouldn’t matter much, but I am going to move them from 85% to 80% based on that game.

11/11/17: Missouri (1-1, 0-1 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Missouri State 72-43.
• W2: Lost to South Carolina, 31-13.
• W3: Purdue
• W4: #13 Auburn
• W5: Bye
• W6: At Kentucky
• W7: At #15 Georgia
• W8: Idaho
• W9: At UConn
• W10: #22 Florida
• W11: #25 Tennessee
• W12: At Vanderbilt
• W13: At Arkansas

Expectations for a Vols win: See the discussion of South Carolina above. Never mind, I guess, about that 72-43 win over Missouri State last week, but I would keep an eye on these guys. For now, I’m moving the Tigers back to 70%, where I had them preseason.

11/18/17: LSU (2-0, 0-0 SEC, #12)

• W1: Beat BYU, 27-0.
• W2: Beat Chattanooga, 45-10.
• W3: At Mississippi State
• W4: Syracuse
• W5: Troy
• W6: At #22 Florida
• W7: #13 Auburn
• W8: At Ole Miss
• W9: Bye
• W10: At #1 Alabama
• W11: Arkansas
• W12: At #25 Tennessee
• W13: Texas A&M

Expectations for a Vols win: Watching that recap video makes LSU look impressive, but they were playing Chattanooga. So, I’m leaving these Tigers right at 25% for now.

11/25/17: Vanderbilt (2-0, 0-0 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat MTSU, 28-6.
• W2: Beat Alabama A&M, 42-0.
• W3: #19 Kansas State
• W4: #1 Alabama
• W5: At #22 Florida
• W6: #15 Georgia
• W7: At Ole Miss
• W8: Bye
• W9: At South Carolina
• W10: W Kentucky
• W11: Kentucky
• W12: Missouri
• W13: At #25 Tennessee

Expectations for a Vols win: I couldn’t tell you one thing about Alabama A&M, but 42-0 is pretty good, so I’m moving Vandy to 65%.

All of that puts me at 7.71 wins, but with 9 if I’m right on every game.

YOUR TURN

How would you set your win probabilities for the rest of the Vols games? Fill out this form, and we’ll compile the results and post them later this week:

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