The Vols Still Make Their Own Fate

With 111 entries, all of them updated since the Kentucky game, the Bracket Matrix still has Tennessee as a one seed. And it’s fairly comfortable: the Vols are the last one seed with an average seed of 1.22, and Kentucky is the first two seed with an average of 1.88. Say what you want about the AP poll, where the Vols dropped from first to fifth, but the vast majority of bracketologists still like Tennessee on the top line.

It will be interesting to see what the committee ultimately does with Nevada and Houston, the only one-loss teams left in college basketball. But the four favorites atop the bracket – Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga, and Tennessee – are the only two-loss teams left standing.

Tennessee’s biggest problem in perception isn’t that it lost at Kentucky. It’s that it lost by 17 in a game it trailed by 24. But take heart, friends: in 2017 North Carolina lost at Indiana by nine, at Georgia Tech by 12, at Miami by 15, at Duke by eight, at Virginia by 10, and to Duke again in the ACC Tournament by 10…and won the national championship. In 2016 Villanova lost to Oklahoma by 23 in December. In 2015 Duke lost at home to Miami by 16. You get the idea. Nothing is off the table.

But Tennessee’s biggest problem in reality is a defense now sitting at 52nd in efficiency when, again, only seven-seed UConn in 2014 won the national championship without an offense and defense in the top 20 nationally.

The Vols got punched in the face, and so far have said all the right things in the aftermath. It’ll be tough to judge against Vanderbilt, unless the Commodores are feeling frisky again. But Vandy is 0-12 in the league: a beat down should be the expectation, but it’s hard to prove anything against a winless foe. But beyond them, we all know what’s coming: each of Tennessee’s last five games will be against what should be a team with a favorable first-round match-up in the NCAA Tournament. It’s basically playing five second-round-or-better opponents in a row.

The chase for the league title is now especially interesting with the Vols and LSU at 11-1, Kentucky at 10-2. Here’s what everyone has left:

• Tennessee: Vanderbilt, at LSU, at Ole Miss, Kentucky, Mississippi State, at Auburn
• LSU: Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M, at Alabama, at Florida, Vanderbilt
• Kentucky: at Missouri, Auburn, Arkansas, at Tennessee, at Ole Miss, Florida

KenPom projects madness with 4-2 finishes for each team. Obviously, you don’t want to get behind LSU with that finale against Vanderbilt. If Duke, Virginia, and Gonzaga keep doing their things, talk of the final one seed coming down between Kentucky and Tennessee isn’t far-fetched at all.

Michigan could get in the way there, but if not, the committee’s choice between the Vols and Cats would go to Kansas City. The more challenging portion is an increased likelihood of the loser going to Louisville (yay!) as the two seed, but having to deal with Duke or Virginia in the Elite Eight (boo!). All those conversations about, “If we lose to Duke, so be it,” sound a lot better when you’re picturing that loss in the Final Four instead of the Elite Eight.

But all of that is miles ahead. We’ve seen enough to know what Tennessee is capable of in toughness and defense. Plenty of previous champions have been punched in the face. But if the Vols don’t do something good with the taste in their mouths, they won’t join them, and will be in danger of losing a favorable path to come closer than this program has before.

Keep getting better.