With the NFL early entrant deadline having come and gone, we can now take a look at the landscape as it relates to Tennessee and its 2019 opponents.
The Vols were able to avoid any significant losses to the NFL. LB Quarte Sapp, who briefly quit the team midseason before returning and basically not playing, has decided to leave early. More importantly, however, WR Jauan Jennings has chosen to return to Tennessee for his 5th season instead. His return provides a boost both on the field, where he’ll surely be a starter out wide for Jim Chaney’s new and improved offense, but also off the field with his leadership and work ethic.
The Vols have had a few transfers announced, including 3-4th string QB Will McBride, depth TE Eli Wolf, and starting OT Drew Richmond. While Richmond has started a lot of games at Tennessee it’s been on some of the worst OL’s in the program’s history, so while it wouldn’t have been a bad thing at least for overall OL depth for him to stay, this does not appear to be a huge loss. We certainly wish him and the other transferring Vols the absolute best.
The bottom line is that while there has to be more attrition from the current roster, Tennessee has avoided losing meaningful players from the existing roster while at the same time its 2019 recruiting class is already set to inject a massive talent boost. Further, the coaching staff changes – mainly the swap of Jum Chaney for Tyson Helton – has been a no-doubt upgrade for the Vols.
Below we take a look at the to-date attrition for Tennessee’s main 2019 opponents, most of whom have been harder hit than have the Vols.
BYU
While I won’t pretend to have anywhere as much familiarity with BYU’s roster as those of Tennessee’s counterparts (including the comings and goings of missionaries, something unique to the BYU program), the Cougars have suffered a good deal of attrition so far this offseason.
RB Riley Burt, DB Isaiah Armstrong, TE Dallin Hollker, WR Akile Davis, DL WayneTei-Kirby, LB Christian Folau, DT Tevita Mounga, and OL Jacob Jimenez have all announced their intentions to transfer. That’s nearly 10% of the roster, and while most of those players were not topline contributors, that’s meaningful no matter what. Additionally, Burt in particular is a big loss, as departing seniors accounted for a third of the total rushing yards for the team in 2018 and Burt, was a lead contender to fill those shoes after rushing for 110 yards on 13 carries in BYU’s bowl game.
Finally, OL Coach Ryan Pugh left the program to become the OC at Troy, so they’ll be starting over at that position too.
BYU should be a win for the Vols in Pruitt’s second season no matter what, and defeating the Cougars in Neyland would likely have the Vols at 3-0 headed to Gainesville. But this kind of attrition can only help Tennessee’s cause.
Florida
I know, I know, we go through this every year. Florida loses players to the NFL and yet Tennessee cannot seem to – outside of 2016 – beat the d*mn Gators. Regardless, DL Jachai Polite, OL Jawaan Taylor, RB Jordan Scarlett, S Chauncey Gardner, and LB Vosean Joseph leaving early for the NFL depletes the Florida roster, and that’s good for Tennessee. Did the Gators have more talent than the Vols in 2018? Arguably. But between respective recruiting classes that have more immediate impact players for Tennessee than UF – even with the addition of Louisville transfer DL Jon Greenard – and losing five legitimate NFL talents that weren’t seniors – that gap should be narrowed significantly.
Georgia
Like Alabama, Georgia currently has so much more talent than Tennessee on its roster that even with massive NFL/transfer losses as well as significant coaching staff turnover it’s hard to imagine the Vols getting a win here in 2019. However, those losses are in fact significant for the Dawgs, especially on offense, as RB Elijah Holyfield, TE Isaac Nauta, WRs Mecole Hardman and Riley Ridley, TE Luke Ford, and QB Justin Fields have all departed. On defense, Georgia has seen DBs Deangelo Gibbs and Tray Bishop leave the program as well. And finally, Kirby Smart is still looking to replace DC Mel Tucker after replacing new Tennessee OC Jim Chaney with an underwhelming inhouse hire.
To reiterate, UGA still has better talent and depth than Tennessee does. However, after these personnel losses that talent gap is meaningfully narrowed in 2019 from just last season. And their coaching staff won’t have as much continuity as it’s had in the past. Both of those things will help the Vols as they try to spring the upset in Neyland in 2019.
MSU
Mississippi States comes to Neyland this season having lost arguably its best overall player, DL Jeffrey Simmon, to early NFL entry. The Bulldogs have also lost backup WR Keith Crouch to transfer, although that’s nowhere near as big of a deal. All in all, despite the expected loss of Simmons State came out ok.
Alabama
See above on Georgia and how Bama still has a massive talent advantage over the Vols and that no one on here is predicting that despite all of the talent and coaching being lost Tennessee will beat Alabama in 2019.
That said, the Tide lost seven (!) players to the NFL: OL Jonah Williams, TE Irv Smith Jr, DL Quinnen Williams, RB Josh Jacobs, DBs Deonte Thompson and Savion Smith, and LB Mack Wilson. Additionally they’ve lost QB Jalen Hurts and backup OL Richie Pettibon to transfer. Finally, they’ve lost almost the entire offensive staff, starting with OC Mike Locksley and including OL Coach Brent Key, WR Coach Josh Gattis, and QB Coach Enos. There could also be more coaching attrition, as specifically DC Tosh Lupoi is rumored to be looking elsewhere.
South Carolina
The Cocks came out relatively unscathed, as they lost nobody to NFL early entry and only backups DL Shameik Blackshear and DB Javon Charleston so far to transfer. However, between homefield advantage and knowing that they should have won in Columbia in 2018 Tennessee will absolutely be pointing to this game as one to flip from an L to a W in 2019.
Kentucky
The Wildcats only had one early NFL entry in RB Benny Snell, one of the best to ever play in Lexington. That’s a big loss though, and with the Vols increasing their talent advantage over Kentucky with the respective 2019 classes there is no reason to think Tennessee can’t start another streak over the Wildcats in 2019.
Mizzou
The Tigers also did well for themselves when it comes to attrition, losing only RB Damarea Crockett to early NFL entry. This may, however, speak to the relative lack of top-end talent in Columbia, but regardless it’s good news for the Tigers as they look to beat the Vols for the 3rd year in a row in 2019
Vanderbilt
Although the Commodores lost their best defensive player in CB Joejuan Williams to the NFL draft, they did manage to hang onto two very good offensive players in RB Keshawn Vaughn and TE Jared Pinkney.
There have been other departures, including S Zaire Jones, RB Josh Crawford (which leaves them pretty thin at the position behind Vaughn), and backup OLs Ean Pfeiffer and Jared Southers. Additionally, OC Andy Ludwig has left to take the same job at Utah, so combined with also losing arguably the best QB in its history in 4-year starter Kyle Shurmur there will be some rebuilding to do on that side of that ball. Vandy did add transfer quarterback Riley Neal, a three-year starter from Ball State, so they will at the very least have some experience there if not comparable talent.
Mizzou picked up Bryant as a QB from Clemson. I’m actually more worried about that than much of anything else. Lock hurt us badly the last couple of years and I was hoping Mizzou would have question marks at QB. It doesn’t look like it though.
Good point, thanks. And now we’ve landed Gibbs!