Tennessee opened as a 4-point underdog to the Tigers this week, and it’s generally hung right around there all week, although some have it at -4.5. So . . . will the Vols cover against Missouri Saturday night in Columbia? Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine has to say and whether I think it’s right this week.
Vols-Tigers
From the perspective of Tennessee
Tennessee points:
- Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23.9
- Missouri scoring defense for the season: 19.5
The Missouri scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):
- Kentucky 20.1
- UAB 18.7
Tennessee scored 30 points against UAB and 17 against Kentucky, which puts the SPM’s estimated points for Tennessee against Missouri at 23.6.
Missouri’s points:
- Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 23
- Missouri scoring offense for the season: 26
The Missouri scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):
- Mississippi State 26.5
- UAB 25.5
UAB scored 7 points against the Vols, and Mississippi State got 10. Estimated points for Missouri: 8.6
Estimated score: Tennessee 23.6, Missouri 8.6
From the perspective of Missouri
Missouri’s points:
- Missouri scoring offense for the season: 26
- Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 23
The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Missouri opponent(s) (FBS only):
- South Carolina 25
- Kentucky 20.1
Missouri scored only 7 points against Kentucky but 34 points against South Carolina. Throwing that in the pot together means the SPM estimates 20.9 points for Missouri against the Vols.
Tennessee’s points:
- Missouri scoring defense for the season: 19.5
- Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23.9
The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Missouri opponent(s):
- South Carolina 24.2
- Kentucky 22.1
Kentucky scored 29 points against Missouri, and South Carolina scored 14. Estimated points for Missouri: 22.2
Estimated score: Missouri 20.9, Tennessee 22.2
SPM Final Estimates
Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:
SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 22.9, Missouri 14.7
SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee -8.2
Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 12.7
That difference of 12.7 makes this game one of the SPM’s favorites this week.
Eyeball adjustments
UAB as a comp alarms me. Removing them from the equation from the Vols’ perspective gives the Vols 17 points and Missouri 10. That would make the final estimate Vols 19.6, Tigers 15.5.
Also, there’s a big difference between the results against the two comps used for Missouri’s perspective. South Carolina and Kentucky are the two best comparisons, but the Tigers’ results against them are wildly divergent. Is Missouri the team that beat South Carolina 34-14 early in the season at home, or is it the team that recently lost 29-7 to Kentucky on the road? The machine splits that baby, which is probably the wisest thing to do under the circumstances, but it’s also setting the stage for possibly being really wrong.
So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Tennessee 20, Missouri 16. Even though I think the SPM is too high on the Vols in this one, I still like them to win outright as an underdog.
Other predictions from other systems
As I said before, the Vols opened as 4-point underdogs and you might find -4.5 somewhere. With an over/under of 45.5-46, that translates to something like Missouri 25, Tennessee 21.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Missouri 25-19, and gives the Vols a 38% chance of winning.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 41.3% chance of winning. For the record, FPI said basically the same thing about the Vols against Kentucky (42.8%), and that one was wrong.
Bottom line
The SPM and I both like the Vols to win outright as 4-point underdogs against Missouri this week. The machine is feeling good about it, but it is at odds with both Vegas and SP+.
- Vegas: Missouri 25, Tennessee 21
- SP+: Missouri 25, Tennessee 19
- SPM: Tennessee 23, Missouri 15
- Me: Tennessee 20, Missouri 16
What do y’all think?