The SPM went 24-27 (47.06%) in Week 5 on all games, excluding those involving FCS teams and those for which there were insufficient comps. It broke even at 50% both above the pre-chosen confidence level and within the pre-chosen confidence range.
For the season, it’s 106-123 (46.29%) overall, 54-54 (50%) above the confidence level, and 28-18 (60.87%) within the confidence range. It’s not doing as well as I’d like, but it is behaving quite consistently. I’m hoping for gradual improvement as the relevant data grows. This week, we incorporated a tweak to account for those situations where the comps were available but weren’t very close.
Because the Vols didn’t play last week, I didn’t mention this, so I’ll mention it now. The SPM muffed on the Tennessee-Florida game, saying Florida wouldn’t cover the 14-point spread. It did warn us that it wasn’t very confident about it.
Let’s take a look to see what it says this week about the Georgia Bulldogs.
Vols-Bulldogs
From the perspective of Georgia
Georgia points:
- Georgia scoring offense for the season: 42.8
- Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 25.3
The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Georgia opponent(s) (FBS only):
- Notre Dame 18.5
- Arkansas State 36
Georgia scored 55 points against Arkansas State and 23 points against Notre Dame. Basically, they’re scoring 1.43% of what those teams usually give up. From this perspective, the SPM estimates that Georgia will score 36.1 points against Tennessee.
Tennessee points:
- Georgia scoring defense for the season: 10
- Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 26
The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Georgia opponent(s):
- Vanderbilt 23
- Arkansas State 32.8
Georgia held Arkansas State scoreless and allowed Vanderbilt only 6 points. That’s 0.11% of what those teams usually score, so from this perspective, the SPM estimates that Tennessee will manage only 2.9 points against Georgia. Ouch.
Estimated score: Georgia 36.1, Tennessee 2.9
From the perspective of Tennessee
Tennessee points:
- Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 26
- Georgia scoring defense for the season: 10
The Georgia scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):
- Florida 8.8
- BYU 31.2
Against BYU, Tennessee scored 26 points. They scored only 3 against Florida, so they’re basically getting about 0.73% of what those teams usually give up. From this perspective, the SPM estimates 7.3 points for the Vols against the Bulldogs.
Georgia points:
- Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 25.3
- Georgia scoring offense for the season: 42.8
The Georgia scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):
- Florida 34
- Georgia State 32.5
Tennessee allowed Florida 34 points and Georgia State 38, which means they let those two teams get 1.08% of what they usually get. So, from this perspective, the SPM estimates 46.2 points for Georgia against the Vols.
Estimated score: Tennessee 7.3, Georgia 46.2
SPM Final Estimates
Putting all of that together, here’s what the SPM gets:
SPM Final estimated score: Georgia 41.2, Tennessee 5.1
SPM Final estimated spread: Georgia -36.1
SPM Confidence level: 19.6
The SPM is feeling pretty good about this one. I hate you, SPM.
Eyeball adjustments
I’d say that looks about right for Georgia’s points, but man do I hope Tennessee scores more than 6. This game has been weird, so I’m just going to go with my gut and say that the Vols score at least an extra touchdown. Let’s call it 13 points for the good guys. So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Georgia 42, Tennessee 13, a spread of 29. That’s still a prediction that they won’t cover.
Other predictions from other systems
The Vegas line opened with Georgia a 16.5-point favorite and by Sunday night had already moved to Georgia -24.5. As of Wednesday morning, it’s Georgia -25 to -26. The over/under of 51.5-52.5 translates to something like Georgia 38, Tennessee 13.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Georgia, 36-16, and gives the Vols a 12% chance of winning. That’s a spread of -20.7, so it likes Tennessee to cover. SP+ is HOT, HOT, HOT right now, notching 58% for the season, including 64% last week.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols an 8.7% chance of winning.
Bottom line
I and the SPM think Tennessee loses this one by 29-36 points and thus fails to cover the spread.
What are y’all thinking?
