Yesterday, I pushed back against the SEC Media Days talking point that the Vols losing “all of that talent” to the NFL meant that they had missed their opportunity. My counterargument was that much of the talent that the Vols lost to the NFL was already gone in 2016 due to injury. Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Cam Sutton, and Alvin Kamara were all missing for key games last season.

It is true, though, that some NFL talent that was available the entire season last year won’t be there this fall. Derek Barnett, Josh Malone, and Josh Dobbs all played every game last year. They weren’t missing in action. They need to be replaced.

But that brings us to another problem with blindly buying into the idea that Tennessee has missed its opportunity because of the talent has departed: It relies on a questionable assumption, namely that the Vols won’t be able to replace the departing players with guys of equal caliber.

This assumption is an easy one to accept. If we haven’t seen six guys go in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft in 15 years, then it makes sense to believe that it will be a long time before we see it again. It just feels wrong to believe that the guys who will take up the reigns for Barnett, Malone, and Dobbs could be as good as they were.

But here’s the thing: It’s could be true.

Derek Barnett and defensive end

Of course, we can’t know for sure at this point, but we can analyze it a bit more to see if the assumptions we are making are reasonable.

Derek Barnett was the 10th-best player in the Vols’ 2014 class, according to the 247Sports Composite. His rating was .9164. A 4-star recruit, he was the 5th-best player in Tennessee, the 13th-best strongside defensive end nationally, and the 208th-best player overall nationally. He over-performed that ranking, setting a new Tennessee record for career sacks.

But Barnett is likely to be replaced by Jonathan Kongbo, who holds a great deal of promise. Kongbo was the third-best guy in the Vols’ class of 2016 with a rating of .9584. He was also a 4-star recruit, but on top of that, he was ranked as the nation’s No. 1 JUCO player in his class. He doesn’t have Barnett’s on-the-field resume, but he hasn’t had much opportunity, either. All Kongbo proved last year was that he was not a defensive tackle. What he does have, though, is a recruiting profile that is even better than Barnett’s. It’s a fact.

Even if Konbgo doesn’t live up to expectations, there’s always Kyle Phillips, another guy with a strong recruiting profile. Phillips was the second-best player in the Vols’ class of 2015 with a rating of .9832. Yet another 4-star guy, Phillips was the best player in his class in the state of Tennessee, the fourth-best strongside defensive end, and the 37th-best player nationally.

Josh Malone and wide receiver

Malone was the highest-rated guy in the Vols’ 2014 class with a rating of .9818. Still only a 4-star recruit, Malone was the best player overall in Tennessee in 2014, the fifth-best wide receiver nationally, and the 36th-best player overall nationally. He took a while to get going, but he had a stellar season last year and was drafted by the Bengals in the fourth round.

It is almost a foregone conclusion that Jajuan Jennings will take over as the feature receiver this fall. You’ll recall that Jennings was recruited as a quarterback and only moved to receiver after he arrived on campus. Still, his recruiting profile sheds some light on his talent. Jennings was the ninth-best player in the Vols’ class of 2015 and had a rating of .9257. He was the seventh-best player in Tennessee, the sixth-best dual-threat quarterback nationally, and the 167th-best player in the nation.

The thing is, with Jennings, his recruiting profile is practically already irrelevant. He’s playing a different position, and all he’s done at Tennessee so far is this:

and this:

And more. If you don’t believe that Jajuan Jennings is every bit as good as NFL Draft Pick Josh Malone, I don’t know what to tell you.

Josh Dobbs and quarterback

Looking back at Dobbs’ recruiting profile, he was much higher-rated than I remember. He was the second-best player in the Vols’ class in 2013 and had a rating of .9276. Also a 4-star, Dobbs was the 14th-best player in the state of Georgia, the 10th-best pro-style QB (heh) nationally, and the 164th-best player nationally. The guy is a record-setting quarterback despite playing through a very difficult period in the school’s history.

How much should we expect of his replacements? Quinten Dormady was the 14th-best player in the Vols’ 2015 class with a rating of .9029. Guarantano was the second-best guy in the Vols’ 2016 class with a rating of .9612. Both are 4-star quarterbacks. Dormady was also the 38th-best player in the talent-rich state of Texas, the 11th-best pro-style quarterback in the class, and the 262nd-best player nationally, while Guarantano was the second-best player in the state of New Jersey, the nation’s No. 1 dual-threat quarterback, and the 81st-best player in the class nationally.

Dormady, who is probably the favorite to start this fall, seems to be outperforming his ranking, and Guarantano hasn’t had much of a chance to prove anything yet, but both are talented. Just going on recruiting profiles, Guarantano’s is better than Dobbs’.

Here’s all of that data in table form:

We can’t know, but there’s reason to believe we won’t miss the NFL guys as much as we fear

Hear me loud and clear: I am not saying we are not going to miss Barnett, Malone, and Dobbs, and I’m not saying that Kongbo, Jennings, Dormady, and Guarantano are going to be every bit as good.

I’m just saying that if we are going to guess, we should guess based on actual information, and I am not convinced that the window of opportunity has closed to the Vols because they lost key players to the NFL. Those guys are not going to be replaced by something resembling a 2008-2012 roster; they’re freeing up opportunities for some really promising and talented guys on the 2017 roster.

The guys who are gone to the NFL were great talents for the Vols, but don’t overlook the potential of the guys likely to replace them.