Updated win probabilities for the Vols after Week 3

Just when you’re reeling and out of air from the gut-punch of the Florida game, Mississippi State makes things interesting in the SEC East. Here’s our weekly update of expectations for the season based both on how the Vols did and how their past and future opponents did this weekend.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

The Vols after Florida

Here’s the thing: saying anything positive about Tennessee after a loss like the one they just suffered to Florida is perilous for your credibility and mental health. And yet, there is, in fact, some good to be said about the Vols after that game. What’s a guy to do?

There are a lot of negative things to say about various things and people after that game. Some of it is absolutely legitimate, most notably the head-scratching decision to use John Kelly to wear out the defense late in the game and then, just when it begins to really work and the game is on the line, decide not to use the advantage you just created.

Some of it, though, is nothing more than normally smart people blinded by rage falling prey to stupidity. For instance, no matter how many people say it and no matter the volume and confidence with which they say it, that last play was not a Hail Mary. It was not “just like Georgia last year,” but was actually a situation calling for the defense to defend not only against a game-winning touchdown but also against a play to set up a game-winning field goal. That particular outcome still should not have happened, obviously, but you’re just plain wrong if you really think the only possible play there is to put everybody in the end zone. That play was plenty terrible enough without spasming off a ledge.

The real shame of that ending (including the red zone play-calling and execution) is that it will completely overwhelm and obscure another truth, namely that Tennessee may actually be better off the rest of the way than we originally thought. Tennessee had 23 first downs to Florida’s 14. They outgained them 442-380. John Kelly had 141 rushing yards and another 96 receiving yards. The team should have won despite three interceptions and three missed field goals. None of that matters in a game they actually lost despite all of it, but it can be really good news for future games if the debilitating mistakes can be corrected.

Bottom line, do you think more or less of Tennessee after the Florida game? There are some weighty items on both sides of the scale, but to me, the negatives are more likely to be corrected than the positives are to disappear. So, on balance, I actually believe in the team a little more this week than I did last week. Not a lot more, but a little. But the team absolutely has to get stuff fixed.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia Tech (1-1, 0-0 ACC, NR)

• W1: Lost to Tennessee 42-41 in double overtime.
• W2: Beat Jacksonville State, 37-10.
• W3: At UCF (canceled)
• W4: Pitt
• W5: North Carolina
• W6: Bye
• W7: At #17 Miami
• W8: Wake Forest
• W9: At #3 Clemson
• W10: At Virginia
• W11: #16 Virginia Tech
• W12: At Duke
• W13: #13 Georgia

Indiana State (0-1, 0-0 MVFC, NR)

• W1: Lost to E Illinois, 22-20.
• W2: Lost to Tennessee, 42-7.
• W3: Lost to Liberty, 42-41 on a blocked 23-yard field goal attempt as time expired.
• W4: Bye
• W5: At Illinois State
• W6: North Dakota State
• W7: At South Dakota
• W8: S Illinois
• W9: At Missouri State
• W10: Youngstown State
• W11: W Illinois
• W12: At Northern Iowa

Florida (1-1, 1-0 SEC, #24)

• W1: Lost to #11 Michigan, 33-17.
• W2: Canceled game with N Colorado.
• W3: Beat #25 Tennessee, 26-20.
• W4: At Kentucky
• W5: Vanderbilt
• W6: #12 LSU
• W7: Texas A&M
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs #15 Georgia
• W10: At Missouri
• W11: At South Carolina
• W12: UAB
• W13: #10 Florida State

Terrible.

The Vols’ future opponents

In addition to the Vols doing some good things to offset the bad, there were some interesting developments among the Vols future opponents this weekend. Most notably, Mississippi State made LSU look more beatable and increased the odds that Georgia could get another SEC loss.

Here’s the rest of the Vols’ schedule and how those opponents fared this weekend.

9/23/17: UMass (0-4, 0-0 IND, NR)

• W1: Lost to Hawaii, 38-35.
• W2: Lost to C. Carolina, 38-28.
• W3: Lost to Old Dominion, 17-7.
• W4: Lost to Temple, 29-21.
• W5: At #25 Tennessee
• W6: Ohio
• W7: Bye
• W8: At #21 USF
• W9: Ga Southern
• W10: Appalachian State
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Maine
• W13: At BYU

Expectations for a Vols win: These guys are not doing well. I had this game at 96% since the beginning of the season, but I’m bumping it up to 99% now.

9/30/17: Georgia (3-0, 0-0 SEC, #11)

• W1: Beat Appalachian State, 31-10. QB Jacob Eason went down, but freshman Jake Fromm looked good and took care of business.
• W2: Beat #24 Notre Dame, 20-19.
• W3: Beat Samford, 42-14.
• W4: Mississippi State
• W5: At #25 Tennessee
• W6: At Vanderbilt
• W7: Missouri
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs. #22 Florida
• W10: South Carolina
• W11: At #13 Auburn
• W12: Kentucky
• W13: At Georgia Tech

Expectations for a Vols win: There’s not much to learn about the Bulldogs this week. I changed this game from 45% to 40% last week, and I’m going to keep it there. The interesting thing here is that Mississippi State just manhandled LSU, so while we’ve been thinking so far that Georgia’s schedule would be a breeze, there’s real hope that they lose an additional SEC game to Mississippi State, which would make things extremely interesting in the SEC East. Root hard for the Clangas this weekend.

10/14/17: South Carolina (2-1, 1-1 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat NC State, 35-28.
• W2: Beat Missouri, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Kentucky, 23-13.
• W4: LA Tech
• W5: At Texas A&M
• W6: Arkansas
• W7: At #25 Tennessee
• W8: Bye
• W9: Vanderbilt
• W10: At #15 Georgia
• W11: #22 Florida
• W12: Wofford
• W13: #3 Clemson

Expectations for a Vols win: The Gamecocks not only lost to Kentucky this weekend, they also lost Deebo Samuel, probably for the remainder of the season. Prior to this weekend, they looked like they were poised to compete for the East, but without Samuel, they’re likely going to struggle. I moved this game from 69% to 60% last week, but this week I’m moving it to 75%.

10/21/17: Alabama (3-0, 0-0 SEC, #1)

• W1: Beat #3 Florida State, 24-7.
• W2: Beat Fresno State, 41-10.
• W3: Beat Colorado State, 41-23.
• W4: At Vanderbilt
• W5: Ole Miss
• W6: At Texas A&M
• W7: Arkansas
• W8: #25 Tennessee
• W9: Bye
• W10: #12 LSU
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Mercer
• W13: At #13 Auburn

Expectations for a Vols win: No new information here. Keeping them at 10%.

10/28/17: Kentucky (3-0, 1-0 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Southern Miss, 24-17.
• W2: Best E Kentucky, 27-16.
• W3: Beat South Carolina, 23-13.
• W4: #22 Florida
• W5: E Michigan
• W6: Missouri
• W7: Bye
• W8: At Mississippi State
• W9: #25 Tennessee
• W10: Ole Miss
• W11: At Vanderbilt
• W12: At #15 Georgia
• W13: #17 Lousiville

Expectations for a Vols win: Okay, so Kentucky looked good against South Carolina. You definitely don’t want to overlook them, but I’m not sure we should overreact to one game in which the opponent lost its primary playmaker, either. I moved this game from 65% to 70% last week, and I’m going to move it back to 65% this week.

11/4/17: Southern Miss (2-1, 0-0 C-USA, NR)

• W1: Lost to Kentucky, 24-17.
• W2: Beat Southern, 45-0.
• W3: Beat UL Monroe, 28-17.
• W4: Bye
• W5: North Texas
• W6: UTSA
• W7: UTEP
• W8: At LA Tech
• W9: UAB
• W10: At #25 Tennessee
• W11: At Rice
• W12: Charlotte
• W13: At Marshall

Expectations for a Vols win: Ito Smith ran for 219 yards, and Kwadra Griggs threw for three touchdowns for Southern Miss this week. They might be good, but it’s going to be hard to know for sure with that schedule. The seven-point loss to Kentucky is going to look better if Kentucky continues to look good. I moved this game from 85% to 80% last week, and I’m going to keep it there this week.

11/11/17: Missouri (1-2, 0-1 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Missouri State 72-43.
• W2: Lost to South Carolina, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Purdue, 35-3.
• W4: #13 Auburn
• W5: Bye
• W6: At Kentucky
• W7: At #15 Georgia
• W8: Idaho
• W9: At UConn
• W10: #22 Florida
• W11: #25 Tennessee
• W12: At Vanderbilt
• W13: At Arkansas

Expectations for a Vols win: Missouri’s offense scored 72 points in the first game and 16 points in the next two. At the rate of the last two games, the Tigers will score as many points in the remaining games of the season as they did in that first game. I moved this game back to 70% last week and am tempted to move it even further to 75%, but I am going to keep it here and keep a wary eye on these guys.

11/18/17: LSU (2-1, 0-1 SEC, #25)

• W1: Beat BYU, 27-0.
• W2: Beat Chattanooga, 45-10.
• W3: Lost to Mississippi State, 37-7.
• W4: Syracuse
• W5: Troy
• W6: At #22 Florida
• W7: #13 Auburn
• W8: At Ole Miss
• W9: Bye
• W10: At #1 Alabama
• W11: Arkansas
• W12: At #25 Tennessee
• W13: Texas A&M

Expectations for a Vols win: Mississippi State made LSU look bad. I’ve had this game at 25% since the beginning of the season, but I’m making a major move with it this week to 45%. I still think they’re talented and deep and probably have a slight advantage late in a season.

11/25/17: Vanderbilt (3-0, 0-0 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat MTSU, 28-6.
• W2: Beat Alabama A&M, 42-0.
• W3: Beat #19 Kansas State, 14-7.
• W4: #1 Alabama
• W5: At #22 Florida
• W6: #15 Georgia
• W7: At Ole Miss
• W8: Bye
• W9: At South Carolina
• W10: W Kentucky
• W11: Kentucky
• W12: Missouri
• W13: At #25 Tennessee

Expectations for a Vols win: I don’t really know what to think about Kansas State, so I don’t really know what to think about Vanderbilt beating them. We’ll have much more data on the Dores after their Alabama-Florida-Georgia run, but for now, I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt. I’m moving this game from 65% to 55%.

All of that puts me at 7.39 wins, but with 8 if the coin comes up the right way every time.

I’m going to post the community expectations later today or tomorrow. If you haven’t submitted your own information yet, you can do that here.