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Updated projected win totals for the Vols after Week 4

Joel Hollingsworth

Not quite 24 hours later, my count-to-10 impression actually hasn’t changed much from what I wrote immediately after the Vols-Gators game last night. The stats aren’t as bad as you might think, but the turnovers are awful and, worse, too many of the turnovers are attributable to an apparently incurable cause.

So, do we feel worse about the team’s 2018 prospects today than we did last week? Yes. How much worse? More than we want to dwell on?

Not only that, but Tennessee’s upcoming opponents all look like what Will is calling the very best versions of themselves. The forecast post-Florida is quite gloomy indeed.

My new expected win total after Week 4 is 4.55, down from 5.5 last week. I have Georgia and Alabama at 5% (down from 10%), Auburn steady at 15%, Kentucky and South Carolina at 25% (down from 40%), Missouri steady at 40%, Vanderbilt as a toss-up, and Charlotte at 90% (down from 95%).

Use the form below to calculate yours and post it in the comments below the post.

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Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 3-0 (1-0), 1st in Big 12

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 3-1 (2-0), 1st in Southern

UTEP Miners

Current record: 0-4 (0-0), 2nd in C-USA – West

Florida Gators

Current record: 3-1 (1-1), 3rd in SEC – East

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 4-0 (2-0), 1st in SEC – East

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 3-1 (1-1), 3rd in SEC – West

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 4-0 (2-0), 1st in SEC – West

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-1 (1-1), 3rd in SEC – East

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 2-2 (1-0), 1st in C-USA – East

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 4-0 (2-0), 1st in SEC – East

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 3-1 (0-1), 5th in SEC – East

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-2 (0-1), 5th in SEC – East

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