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Updated projected win totals for the Vols after Week 1

Joel Hollingsworth

How you view the result of Saturday’s Tennessee-West Virginia game depends largely on how you felt going in. As I said on the two Gameday on Rocky Top Podcasts last week, my three most expected outcomes for the game were (1) West Virginia in a close one, (2) a West Virginia blowout, and (3) Tennessee in a close one.

I wouldn’t argue with anyone who feels like a 26-point loss is a blowout, but because I knew there was a significant risk of the Mountaineers passing game continuing to exploit the Vols secondary, it doesn’t really feel like that to me. Maybe I’d feel differently if it happened all game instead of just the second half. It’s like getting all of the Pythagorean theorem questions wrong on the ACT. It doesn’t necessarily mean you’re terrible at math; it just means you got the same concept wrong 15 times.

On the other hand, expecting a close game and getting a 26-point loss is indeed cause for adjusting expectations downward to some degree. So yeah, I’m feeling a little less hopeful for the Vols after this weekend. I’m really interested to see how West Virginia does the rest of the way. Go ‘Eers.

Meanwhile, every one of the Vols’ future opponents except UTEP had first outings that were solid enough to make me feel slightly worse about them as well. With the exception of Auburn, though, everybody played cupcakes, so if I feel worse, it’s not by much.

On balance, I feel only slightly worse about the Vols and only slightly worse about the Vols’ opponents after the first weekend. Plus, like Brad, I’m thinking that the only reason I’m feeling worse is because I probably felt better than I should have last week. I’m keeping the Alabama-Auburn-Georgia trio where they are and in the order they were. I’m reordering the Charlotte, ETSU, UTEP trio and keeping the group in my “as certain as can be” range. But I’m moving the shifting the middle group of South Carolina, Florida, and Missouri toward the red a bit and keeping Kentucky, and Vanderbilt right in the toss-up range.

My projected win total is now 5.25. Use the GRT Expected Win Total Machine to gauge your own expectations after the first week:

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The details of the games are below, but here’s my updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

The Vols should be able to regain a bit of confidence over the next two weeks against ETSU and UTEP at home. Florida gets Kentucky and Colorado State the next two weeks, so expectations could shift in a hurry regarding that imminent clash between the Vols and Gators at Neyland.

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in Big 12

Unless they stumble, we won’t really know just how good West Virginia is until the back end of the season. Let’s hope they don’t stumble.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 2nd in Southern

UTEP Miners

Current record: 0-1 (0-0), 1st in C-USA – West

Florida Gators

Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in SEC – East

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in SEC – East

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in SEC – West

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in SEC – West

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in SEC – East

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in C-USA – East

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in SEC – East

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in SEC – East

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in SEC – East

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