What are Tennessee’s chances for bowl eligibility with South Carolina in the rearview mirror and four games remaining? Let’s take a look.

My new expected win total:

  • This week: 5.55
  • Last week: 6.0
  • After Week 7: 6.3
  • After Week 6: 5.0
  • After Week 5: 4.9
  • After Week 4: 4.55
  • After Week 3: 5.5

The dip from last week is mostly just converting the 50% chance of beating the Gamecocks to 0%. I have Kentucky and Missouri both at 50% and Vanderbilt steady at 60%. Charlotte remains at 95%.

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 3-5 (1-4), 5th in the SEC East

  • Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
  • Beat ETSU, 59-3
  • Beat UTEP, 24-0
  • Lost to Florida, 47-21
  • Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
  • Beat #21 Auburn, 30-24
  • Lost to #1 Alabama, 58-21
  • Lost to South Carolina, 27-24
  • Charlotte, 4:00 PM
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Vanderbilt, TBD

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in Big 12, #12

  • Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
  • Beat YSU, 52-17
  • NC State, Canceled
  • Beat Kansas St, 35-6
  • Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
  • Beat Kansas, 38-22
  • Lost to Iowa State, 30-14
  • Bye
  • Beat Baylor, 58-14
  • Texas, TBD
  • #17 TCU, TBD
  • #15 Oklahoma St, TBD
  • #5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 7-2 (5-1), 1st in Southern

  • Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
  • Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
  • Beat VMI, 27-24
  • Beat Furman, 29-27
  • Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
  • Beat Gardner-Webb, 45-0
  • Beat The Citadel, 26-23
  • Lost to Wofford, 31-17
  • Beat Western Carolina, 45-43
  • Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
  • Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 0-8 (0-4), 6th in C-USA – West

  • Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
  • Lost to UNLV, 52-24
  • Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
  • Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
  • Lost to UTSA, 30-21
  • Lost North Texas, 27-24
  • Bye
  • Lost to LA Tech, 31-24
  • Lost UAB, 19-0
  • Rice, 3:30 PM ET
  • MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
  • W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
  • Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+

Florida Gators

Current record: 6-2 (4-2), 3rd in SEC – East, #13

  • Beat Charleston So, 53-6
  • Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
  • Beat Colorado St, 48-10
  • Beat Tennessee, 47-21
  • Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
  • Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 37-27
  • Bye
  • Lost to #7 Georgia, 36-17
  • Missouri, TBD
  • S Carolina, TBD
  • Idaho, TBD
  • Florida State, TBD

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 7-1 (5-1), 1st in SEC – East, #6

  • Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
  • Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
  • Beat MTSU, 49-7
  • Beat Missouri, 43-29
  • Beat Tennessee, 38-12
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 41-13
  • Lost to #13 LSU, 36-16
  • Bye
  • Beat Florida, 36-17
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • #9 Auburn, TBD
  • UMass, TBD
  • Georgia Tech, TBD

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 5-3 (2-3), 4th in SEC – West

  • Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
  • Beat Alabama St, 63-9
  • Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
  • Beat Arkansas, 34-3
  • Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
  • Lost to Miss St, 23-9
  • Lost to Tennessee, 30-24
  • Beat Ole Miss, 31-16
  • Bye
  • Texas A&M, TBD
  • Georgia, TBD
  • Liberty, TBD
  • Alabama, TBD

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 8-0 (5-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1

  • Beat Louisville*, 51-14
  • Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
  • Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
  • Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
  • Beat Louisiana, 56-14
  • Beat Arkansas, 65-31
  • Beat Missouri, 39-10
  • Beat Tennessee, 58-21
  • Bye
  • LSU, TBD
  • Miss St, TBD
  • The Citadel, TBD
  • Auburn, TBD

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 4-3 (3-3), 4th in SEC – East

  • Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
  • Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
  • Marshall, Canceled
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
  • Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
  • Beat Missouri, 37-35
  • Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
  • Bye
  • Beat Tennessee, 27-24
  • Ole Miss, TBD
  • Florida, TBD
  • Chattanooga, TBD
  • Clemson, TBD

The Vols’ future opponents

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 4-4 (3-2), 4th in C-USA – East

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 7-1 (5-1), 1st in SEC – East, #11

  • Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
  • Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
  • Beat Murray State, 48-10
  • Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
  • Beat S Carolina, 24-10
  • Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
  • Bye
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 14-7
  • Beat Missouri, 15-14
  • Georgia
  • Tennessee
  • MTSU
  • Louisville

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 4-4 (0-4), 7th in SEC – East

  • Beat UT Martin, 51-14
  • Beat Wyoming, 40-13
  • Beat Purdue, 40-37
  • Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
  • Lost to South Carolina, 37-35
  • Lost to Alabama, 39-10
  • Beat Memphis, 65-33
  • Lost to Kentucky, 15-14
  • Florida
  • Vanderbilt
  • Tennessee
  • Arkansas

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 4-5 (1-4), 5th in SEC – East

  • Beat MTSU, 35-7
  • Beat Nevada, 41-10
  • Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
  • Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
  • Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
  • Lost to Georgia, 41-13
  • Lost to Florida, 37-27
  • Lost to Kentucky, 14-7
  • Beat Arkansas, 45-31
  • Missouri
  • Ole Miss
  • Tennessee

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Harley
Harley
6 years ago

Down to 5.5 from 5.8 last week. Charlotte 100% and 50% on the rest. Think we still have a mathematical chance of making a bowl… tough to call the mental state of the Vols after the close loss. Go Vols!

Pete
Pete
6 years ago

5.10 These kids deserve a bowl, but may not get it. Charlotte’s a gimme. Dog to Kentucky and Missouri (1 in 4 and 1 in 3 chance for me); slightly better than a coin flip to Vandy at 55%. Since we have to pull an upset and have the coin fall our way, a bowl is less than likely.

Isaac Bishop
Isaac Bishop
6 years ago

5.65

50/50 games with UK and Mizzou with Vandy a bit better. Honestly I really think we can win out. A beat up UK coming into town and another winnable game at home. Then with as much as we fought against Auburn and SC on the road we should take Vandy.

I’m feeling a 7-5 coming on, but no worse than 6-6.

HT
HT
6 years ago

Pre-season: 5.12 Post-WVU: 4.98 Post-ETSU: 4.84 Post-UTEP: 4.65 Post-Florida: 4.01 Post-Georgia: 4.20 Post-bye: 4.63 Post-Auburn: 5.58 Post-Alabama: 5.48 Now: 5.08 I am basically back to where I was pre-season. Didn’t expect to beat Auburn but expected to win one of Florida/South Carolina. My individual game confidence levels are now Charlotte 98, Kentucky 25 (down from 30), Mizzou 35, and Vandy 50 (down from 51). All are obviously winnable individually but getting to the post-season is a tall order for this team. How I have picked each UT game in the Pick ‘Em contest versus actual results: West Virginia 40, Tennessee… Read more »

Will Shelton
Admin
Will Shelton
6 years ago

I’m at 5.40 this week, shading ever-so-slightly to 5-7 over 6-6. I do love where we catch Kentucky on their schedule

Gavin Driskill
Gavin Driskill
6 years ago

I’m at exactly 5.00.

They’ll beat Charlotte (95%), I still expect to be 7-10 point dogs to Kentucky (25%) and Mizzou (30%), Vandy should be a toss up (50%).

HixsonVol
HixsonVol
6 years ago

Sitting at 5.59 this week. My big hope for this week, is for Kentucky to have a very physical game with Georgia and for the Vols to be able fine tune some things, along with getting playing time for the backups.