What are Tennessee’s chances for bowl eligibility with South Carolina in the rearview mirror and four games remaining? Let’s take a look.
My new expected win total:
- This week: 5.55
- Last week: 6.0
- After Week 7: 6.3
- After Week 6: 5.0
- After Week 5: 4.9
- After Week 4: 4.55
- After Week 3: 5.5
The dip from last week is mostly just converting the 50% chance of beating the Gamecocks to 0%. I have Kentucky and Missouri both at 50% and Vanderbilt steady at 60%. Charlotte remains at 95%.
Use the form below to calculate your expected win total and post it in the comments below the post.
Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 3-5 (1-4), 5th in the SEC East
- Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
- Beat ETSU, 59-3
- Beat UTEP, 24-0
- Lost to Florida, 47-21
- Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
- Beat #21 Auburn, 30-24
- Lost to #1 Alabama, 58-21
- Lost to South Carolina, 27-24
- Charlotte, 4:00 PM
- Kentucky, TBD
- Missouri, TBD
- Vanderbilt, TBD
The Vols’ past opponents
West Virginia Mountaineers
Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in Big 12, #12
- Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
- Beat YSU, 52-17
- NC State, Canceled
- Beat Kansas St, 35-6
- Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
- Beat Kansas, 38-22
- Lost to Iowa State, 30-14
- Bye
- Beat Baylor, 58-14
- Texas, TBD
- #17 TCU, TBD
- #15 Oklahoma St, TBD
- #5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Current record: 7-2 (5-1), 1st in Southern
- Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
- Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
- Beat VMI, 27-24
- Beat Furman, 29-27
- Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
- Beat Gardner-Webb, 45-0
- Beat The Citadel, 26-23
- Lost to Wofford, 31-17
- Beat Western Carolina, 45-43
- Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
- Samford, 1:00 PM ET
UTEP Miners
Current record: 0-8 (0-4), 6th in C-USA – West
- Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
- Lost to UNLV, 52-24
- Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
- Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
- Lost to UTSA, 30-21
- Lost North Texas, 27-24
- Bye
- Lost to LA Tech, 31-24
- Lost UAB, 19-0
- Rice, 3:30 PM ET
- MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
- W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
- Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
Florida Gators
Current record: 6-2 (4-2), 3rd in SEC – East, #13
- Beat Charleston So, 53-6
- Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
- Beat Colorado St, 48-10
- Beat Tennessee, 47-21
- Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
- Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
- Beat Vanderbilt, 37-27
- Bye
- Lost to #7 Georgia, 36-17
- Missouri, TBD
- S Carolina, TBD
- Idaho, TBD
- Florida State, TBD
Georgia Bulldogs
Current record: 7-1 (5-1), 1st in SEC – East, #6
- Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
- Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
- Beat MTSU, 49-7
- Beat Missouri, 43-29
- Beat Tennessee, 38-12
- Beat Vanderbilt, 41-13
- Lost to #13 LSU, 36-16
- Bye
- Beat Florida, 36-17
- Kentucky, TBD
- #9 Auburn, TBD
- UMass, TBD
- Georgia Tech, TBD
Auburn Tigers
Current record: 5-3 (2-3), 4th in SEC – West
- Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
- Beat Alabama St, 63-9
- Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
- Beat Arkansas, 34-3
- Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
- Lost to Miss St, 23-9
- Lost to Tennessee, 30-24
- Beat Ole Miss, 31-16
- Bye
- Texas A&M, TBD
- Georgia, TBD
- Liberty, TBD
- Alabama, TBD
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 8-0 (5-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1
- Beat Louisville*, 51-14
- Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
- Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
- Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
- Beat Louisiana, 56-14
- Beat Arkansas, 65-31
- Beat Missouri, 39-10
- Beat Tennessee, 58-21
- Bye
- LSU, TBD
- Miss St, TBD
- The Citadel, TBD
- Auburn, TBD
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 4-3 (3-3), 4th in SEC – East
- Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
- Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
- Marshall, Canceled
- Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
- Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
- Beat Missouri, 37-35
- Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
- Bye
- Beat Tennessee, 27-24
- Ole Miss, TBD
- Florida, TBD
- Chattanooga, TBD
- Clemson, TBD
The Vols’ future opponents
Charlotte 49ers
Current record: 4-4 (3-2), 4th in C-USA – East
- Beat Fordham, 34-10
- Lost to App St, 45-9
- Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
- Lost to UMass, 49-31
- Lost to UAB, 28-7
- Beat Western Kentucky, 40-14
- Lost to MTSU, 21-13
- Beat Southern Miss, 20-17
- Tennessee
- Marshall
- FIU
- FAU
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 7-1 (5-1), 1st in SEC – East, #11
- Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
- Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
- Beat Murray State, 48-10
- Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
- Beat S Carolina, 24-10
- Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
- Bye
- Beat Vanderbilt, 14-7
- Beat Missouri, 15-14
- Georgia
- Tennessee
- MTSU
- Louisville
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 4-4 (0-4), 7th in SEC – East
- Beat UT Martin, 51-14
- Beat Wyoming, 40-13
- Beat Purdue, 40-37
- Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
- Lost to South Carolina, 37-35
- Lost to Alabama, 39-10
- Beat Memphis, 65-33
- Lost to Kentucky, 15-14
- Florida
- Vanderbilt
- Tennessee
- Arkansas
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 4-5 (1-4), 5th in SEC – East
- Beat MTSU, 35-7
- Beat Nevada, 41-10
- Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
- Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
- Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
- Lost to Georgia, 41-13
- Lost to Florida, 37-27
- Lost to Kentucky, 14-7
- Beat Arkansas, 45-31
- Missouri
- Ole Miss
- Tennessee
