What are Tennessee’s chances for bowl eligibility with three games remaining? It depends on how you view the Vols’ outing against Charlotte, how their past opponents looked this past weekend, and how those three remaining opponents have looked so far. Here’s how it all shakes out for me.
First, I’ve been saying all season that I thought Tennessee’s chances of winning the Charlotte game was somewhere between 90-99%. See the graphic below for proof.
So I was surprised when our Statsy Preview Machine last Thursday spit out a mere three-point prediction for the Vols. I was surprised enough not to embrace it and put my own prediction at 34-17, but the machine coughing that up — along with S&P+ suggesting the Vols wouldn’t cover the Vegas spread — did have the effect of preparing me for a battle no one was really expecting.
And hey, football is weird. It’s a contest, and your team’s performance any given week is a product not only of how good your team is and how well it did that day but also how good its opponent is and how good they played that day. And even though we never really know how to weigh each of those factors any given week, we always seem to jump right to the conclusion that our team is either awesome or terrible regardless of any of the other three factors.
Me, I think Charlotte’s defense might be pretty good, particularly at stopping the run, and for an offense having trouble running the ball, that can cause real problems. So, I don’t know that Saturday really tells us much more about the Vols that we didn’t already know. Still, although it wasn’t cause for writing off the rest of the season, it was cause for some degree of readjustment of expectations.
The other thing that happened that changed things this week was that Missouri beat Florida, which is bad news for Vols fans.
Anyway, here’s how I’ve switched up my expectations after this weekend.
My new expected win total:
- This week: 5.3
- Last week: 5.55
- After Week 8: 6.0
- After Week 7: 6.3
- After Week 6: 5.0
- After Week 5: 4.9
- After Week 4: 4.55
- After Week 3: 5.5
I docked the Vols a bit for the performance against Charlotte, so I changed Kentucky and Missouri from 50% to 40%. Kentucky did about as well against Georgia as I expected, but Missouri beating Florida the way they did was a surprise, so I put them ahead of Kentucky. Vanderbilt, who didn’t play, went from 60% to 50%. I’m basically thinking we’ll get one of the next three instead of the two we need, but those other two are close enough to tossups that I think they could go our way.
Use the form below to calculate your expected win total and post it in the comments below the post.
Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 4-5 (1-4), 5th in the SEC East
- Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
- Beat ETSU, 59-3
- Beat UTEP, 24-0
- Lost to Florida, 47-21
- Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
- Beat #21 Auburn, 30-24
- Lost to #1 Alabama, 58-21
- Lost to South Carolina, 27-24
- Beat Charlotte, 14-3
- Kentucky
- Missouri
- Vanderbilt
The Vols’ past opponents
West Virginia Mountaineers
Current record: 7-1 (5-1), 1st in Big 12, #7
- Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
- Beat YSU, 52-17
- NC State, Canceled
- Beat Kansas St, 35-6
- Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
- Beat Kansas, 38-22
- Lost to Iowa State, 30-14
- Bye
- Beat Baylor, 58-14
- Beat #17 Texas, 42-41
- #17 TCU
- #15 Oklahoma St.
- #5 Oklahoma
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Current record: 8-2 (6-1), 1st in Southern
- Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
- Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
- Beat VMI, 27-24
- Beat Furman, 29-27
- Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
- Beat Gardner-Webb, 45-0
- Beat The Citadel, 26-23
- Lost to Wofford, 31-17
- Beat Western Carolina, 45-43
- Beat Mercer, 21-18
- Samford, 1:00 PM ET
UTEP Miners
Current record: 1-8 (1-4), 6th in C-USA – West
- Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
- Lost to UNLV, 52-24
- Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
- Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
- Lost to UTSA, 30-21
- Lost North Texas, 27-24
- Bye
- Lost to LA Tech, 31-24
- Lost UAB, 19-0
- Beat Rice, 34-26
- MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
- W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
- Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
Florida Gators
Current record: 6-3 (4-3), 3rd in SEC – East, #19
- Beat Charleston So, 53-6
- Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
- Beat Colorado St, 48-10
- Beat Tennessee, 47-21
- Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
- Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
- Beat Vanderbilt, 37-27
- Bye
- Lost to #7 Georgia, 36-17
- Lost to Missouri, 38-17
- S Carolina, TBD
- Idaho, TBD
- Florida State, TBD
Georgia Bulldogs
Current record: 8-1 (6-1), 1st in SEC – East, #5
- Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
- Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
- Beat MTSU, 49-7
- Beat Missouri, 43-29
- Beat Tennessee, 38-12
- Beat Vanderbilt, 41-13
- Lost to #13 LSU, 36-16
- Bye
- Beat Florida, 36-17
- Beat #9 Kentucky, 34-17
- Auburn
- UMass
- Georgia Tech
Auburn Tigers
Current record: 6-3 (3-3), 3rd in SEC – West
- Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
- Beat Alabama St, 63-9
- Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
- Beat Arkansas, 34-3
- Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
- Lost to Miss St, 23-9
- Lost to Tennessee, 30-24
- Beat Ole Miss, 31-16
- Bye
- Beat #20 Texas A&M, 28-24
- Georgia
- Liberty
- Alabama
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 9-0 (6-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1
- Beat Louisville*, 51-14
- Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
- Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
- Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
- Beat Louisiana, 56-14
- Beat Arkansas, 65-31
- Beat Missouri, 39-10
- Beat Tennessee, 58-21
- Bye
- Beat #3 LSU, 29-0
- Miss St
- The Citadel
- Auburn
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 5-3 (4-3), 3rd in SEC – East
- Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
- Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
- Marshall, Canceled
- Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
- Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
- Beat Missouri, 37-35
- Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
- Bye
- Beat Tennessee, 27-24
- Beat Ole Miss, 48-44
- Florida
- Chattanooga
- Clemson
Charlotte 49ers
Current record: 4-5 (3-2), 3rd in C-USA – East
- Beat Fordham, 34-10
- Lost to App St, 45-9
- Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
- Lost to UMass, 49-31
- Lost to UAB, 28-7
- Beat Western Kentucky, 40-14
- Lost to MTSU, 21-13
- Beat Southern Miss, 20-17
- Lost to Tennessee, 14-3
- Marshall
- FIU
- FAU
The Vols’ future opponents
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 7-2 (5-2), 2nd in SEC – East, #12
- Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
- Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
- Beat Murray State, 48-10
- Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
- Beat S Carolina, 24-10
- Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
- Bye
- Beat Vanderbilt, 14-7
- Beat Missouri, 15-14
- Lost to Georgia, 34-17
- Tennessee
- MTSU
- Louisville
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 5-4 (1-4), 5th in SEC – East
- Beat UT Martin, 51-14
- Beat Wyoming, 40-13
- Beat Purdue, 40-37
- Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
- Lost to South Carolina, 37-35
- Lost to Alabama, 39-10
- Beat Memphis, 65-33
- Lost to Kentucky, 15-14
- Beat #11 Florida, 38-17
- Vanderbilt
- Tennessee
- Arkansas
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 4-5 (1-4), 5th in SEC – East
- Beat MTSU, 35-7
- Beat Nevada, 41-10
- Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
- Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
- Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
- Lost to Georgia, 41-13
- Lost to Florida, 37-27
- Lost to Kentucky, 14-7
- Beat Arkansas, 45-31
- Bye
- Missouri
- Ole Miss
- Tennessee
