A big win for the Vols this weekend not only made you feel better about the team for a moment but also has an impact on what to expect going forward and when to expect it.

My new expected win total:

  • This week: 6.3
  • Last week: 5.0
  • After Week 5: 4.9
  • After Week 4: 4.55
  • After Week 3: 5.5

I have Alabama at 15% (down from 5%), Kentucky down to 45% from 30%, South Carolina and Missouri down to 50% from 40%, Vanderbilt down to 75% from 60%, and Charlotte steady at 95%.

Use the form below to calculate yours and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 3-3 (1-2), 4th in the SEC East

  • Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
  • Beat ETSU, 59-3
  • Beat UTEP, 24-0
  • Lost to Florida, 47-21
  • Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
  • Beat #21 Auburn, 30-24
  • #1 Alabama, TBD
  • S Carolina, TBD
  • Charlotte, TBD
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Vanderbilt, TBD

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 5-1 (3-1), 2nd in Big 12, #13

  • Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
  • Beat YSU, 52-17
  • NC State, Canceled
  • Beat Kansas St, 35-6
  • Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
  • Beat Kansas, 38-22
  • Lost to Iowa State, 30-14
  • Baylor, 7:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1
  • Texas, TBD
  • #17 TCU, TBD
  • #15 Oklahoma St, TBD
  • #5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 6-1 (4-0)

  • Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
  • Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
  • Beat VMI, 27-24
  • Beat Furman, 29-27
  • Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
  • Beat Gardner-Webb, 45-0
  • Beat The Citadel, 26-23
  • Wofford, 1:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • W Carolina, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
  • Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 0-6 (0-2), 6th in C-USA – West

  • Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
  • Lost to UNLV, 52-24
  • Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
  • Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
  • Lost to UTSA, 30-21
  • Lost North Texas, 27-24
  • Bye
  • LA Tech, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • UAB, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • Rice, 3:30 PM ET
  • MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
  • W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
  • Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+

Florida Gators

Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in SEC – East, #11

  • Beat Charleston So, 53-6
  • Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
  • Beat Colorado St, 48-10
  • Beat Tennessee, 47-21
  • Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
  • Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 37-27
  • #2 Georgia*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
  • Missouri, TBD
  • S Carolina, TBD
  • Idaho, TBD
  • Florida State, TBD

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in SEC – East, #8

  • Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
  • Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
  • Beat MTSU, 49-7
  • Beat Missouri, 43-29
  • Beat Tennessee, 38-12
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 41-13
  • Lost to #13 LSU, 36-16
  • Florida*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • #9 Auburn, TBD
  • UMass, TBD
  • Georgia Tech, TBD

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 4-3 (1-3), 6th in SEC – West

  • Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
  • Beat Alabama St, 63-9
  • Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
  • Beat Arkansas, 34-3
  • Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
  • Lost to Miss St, 23-9
  • Lost to Tennessee, 30-24
  • Ole Miss, TBD
  • Texas A&M, TBD
  • Georgia, TBD
  • Liberty, TBD
  • Alabama, TBD

The Vols’ future opponents

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 7-0 (4-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1

  • Beat Louisville*, 51-14
  • Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
  • Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
  • Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
  • Beat Louisiana, 56-14
  • Beat Arkansas, 65-31
  • Beat Missouri, 39-10
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • LSU, TBD
  • Miss St, TBD
  • The Citadel, TBD
  • Auburn, TBD

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 3-3 (2-3), 4th in SEC – East

  • Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
  • Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
  • Marshall, Canceled
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
  • Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
  • Beat Missouri, 37-35
  • Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Ole Miss, TBD
  • Florida, TBD
  • Chattanooga, TBD
  • Clemson, TBD

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 3-3 (2-1), 2nd in C-USA – East

  • Beat Fordham, 34-10
  • Lost to App St, 45-9
  • Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
  • Lost to UMass, 49-31
  • Lost to UAB, 28-7
  • Beat Western Kentucky, 40-14
  • MTSU, 3:00 PM ET
  • Southern Miss, 2:00 PM ET
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Marshall, 2:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • FIU, 2:00 PM ET
  • FAU, 6:00 PM ET

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 5-1 (3-1), 3rd in SEC – East, #14

  • Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
  • Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
  • Beat Murray State, 48-10
  • Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
  • Beat S Carolina, 24-10
  • Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
  • Bye
  • Vanderbilt, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Georgia, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • MTSU, TBD
  • Louisville, TBD

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 3-3 (0-3), 6th in SEC – East

  • Beat UT Martin, 51-14
  • Beat Wyoming, 40-13
  • Beat Purdue, 40-37
  • Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
  • Lost to South Carolina, 37-35
  • Lost to Alabama, 39-10
  • Memphis, TBD
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Florida, TBD
  • Vanderbilt, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Arkansas, 2:30 PM ET CBS

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 3-4 (0-3), 6th in SEC – East

  • Beat MTSU, 35-7
  • Beat Nevada, 41-10
  • Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
  • Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
  • Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
  • Lost to Georgia, 41-13
  • Lost to Florida, 37-27
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Arkansas, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Ole Miss, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
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Isaac Bishop
Isaac Bishop
6 years ago

6.35 for me this week.

I think Missouri is actually the most winnable game after Vandy and of course the 49ers. SC is definitely an easier opponet but coming off a bye and on the road after we play Bama is rough. If we can snag that SC game then we’re going bowling no question this year. Also I think we have a good chance to beat a UK team that has to play an angry UGA the week before. Still curious if the cats can sustain their momentum over the back half of their schedule.

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Scott
Scott
6 years ago

I’ve come up to 6 .00 even. I dont know though. Maybe I’m that old dog that cowers and pees a little every time my master raises his hand because of the years of abuse, but I still feel like we are in the 5 win range. This win makes me hope I am wrong and we are turning the corner, but my gut feeling is that the win is more of Auburns problems and less that we are good enough. I definitely think we are getting better, I can definitely see it, but I’m just not yet convinced the… Read more »

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Will Shelton
Admin
Will Shelton
6 years ago

I’m at 5.95. I’ve got Bama at 5 and Charlotte at 100, so the real question now is what chance do we give ourselves to split the other four. And I think all of them are between 40-60. Should be fun.

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HT
HT
6 years ago

Pre-season: 5.12
Post-WVU: 4.98
Post-ETSU: 4.84
Post-UTEP: 4.65
Post-Florida: 4.01
Post-Georgia: 4.20
Post-bye: 4.63
Now: 5.58

Fairly obvious increase. I’m now at 50-50 on Vandy and that may be for a bowl bid. Things are definitely more interesting now. Just need to be sure not to give one back.

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Pete
Pete
6 years ago

I’m at 5.6. Auburn was a pure bonus win from the 10-15% probability range. My gut wasn’t that far off the closing spread. Based on Vols +14.5, teams with that spread have won 17.7% of the time since 2003. Source: https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/odds-history/results/ …. By the way, the starting spread of +18.5 had us with a 10.9% chance to pull that one out Like all of you, probably, I am more optimistic in general than I was before the Auburn game. Bama went from a 1% to a 2% chance. More seriously, I’ll need to see how we do against teams we… Read more »

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Louisville Vol
Louisville Vol
6 years ago

I’m at 6.0. Something that I like is that playing stiff competition early (5 ranked teams including Bama) actually seems to be toughening these Vols and making them better and stronger for the back half. That’s something Jones’s teams never did. They’d get worn out in the front half of the season and then fall flat against softer competition on the back end. I don’t think that’s as likely this year, and this team should only continue to get better week to week.

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Gavin Driskill
Gavin Driskill
6 years ago

I’m up to 5.41…it still feels more likely the Vols miss a bowl than make one, but it should be close.

By the numbers, a bowl is still going to require one they “shouldn’t” win. They’ll be favored against Charlotte and possibly against Vandy given current trends, but they’ll be underdogs in the other 4 games.

Can they emerge from Alabama not physically and mentally broken and steal one against USCe, Mizzou, or UK where they’ll be, I’d guess, 5-10 point underdogs? That’s the question.

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Harley
Harley
6 years ago

6.3 for me… Charlotte at 100, Vandy 70… and 50/50 for the rest. Not sure when we will hit the “improvement ceiling” or if there are going to be any “let downs”… this will be crazy difficult to forecast. The Vols are a very dangerous team now, so watch our SEC 🙂 Go Vols!!

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Sam Hensley
Sam Hensley
6 years ago

I’m up to 6.13. So nice to see the improvement!

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Randy Holtzclaw
Admin
Randy Holtzclaw
6 years ago

Up to a 6.12
Great win on Saturday
I absolutely loved our second half defense, I haven’t seen a VOLS defense that were swarming like this in a long time!

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