After we’d finished the Vols magazine this spring, we decided that the primary stretch goal for the Vols in 2019 should be to win the Second Tier of the SEC East. There were other goals as well — be more competitive against the Big 3 rivals of Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, and win the non-conference slate — but the chief goal was to fix the nagging problem of losing all too often to the likes of South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky.

Our rivals will probably laugh themselves into incontinence over the notion of Tennessee fans rooting for a consolation prize, but as we said this summer, to get to the penthouse, you have to first find your way out of the basement. Heading into this season, the Vols were 2-5 against Missouri since 2012, 2-5 against Vanderbilt since 2012, 3-6 against South Carolina since 2010, and had even let Kentucky win two games in the last eight years. Tennessee was on a two-game losing streak to Missouri and three-game losing streaks to South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Before they could tackle the first world problem of challenging for the SEC East Division, the Vols had to solve the third-world problem of beating the Tigers, Gamecocks, ‘Cats, and ‘Dores.

Well, so far, so good, as Tennessee currently sits at 3-3 and third in the SEC East behind Georgia and Florida with two SEC games to go.

What’s already settled

Part of the SEC East pecking order is already settled, as Florida, South Carolina, and Kentucky have all completed SEC play for the season. Tennessee can’t catch Florida, and even if the Vols lose their two remaining games, they’ll finish with the same record as South Carolina and Kentucky but will have head-to-head wins over both of them.

Georgia can’t be caught by the Vols or anyone else, even though the Bulldogs still have a game this weekend against Texas A&M. They’ll probably finish 7-1, but even if they lose and end up at 6-2, they will win the East because of their head-to-head win over the Gators.

And the best Vanderbilt can do is finish 2-6, even if the Commodores beat the Vols.

What’s not yet settled: the SEC East’s Second Tier

The race for the top of the Second Tier of the SEC East comes down to Tennessee and Missouri, and both teams have two SEC games yet to play.

Tennessee’s two remaining games are against Missouri and Vanderbilt, and Missouri’s last two are Tennessee and Arkansas. The Vols could finish the season anywhere from 5-3 to 3-5. Win both to go 5-3, and the best Missouri can do is 3-5 and the head-to-heads won’t even come into play. Lose both to go 3-5, and the worst Missouri can do is also 3-5, plus the Tigers will have the head-to-head advantage over the Vols.

So, win out, and the Vols will be at the top of the Second Tier of the SEC East, but lose the rest of the way and that spot will belong to Missouri.

But what happens if the Vols split the next two games? If they beat Missouri but lose to Vanderbilt, they’ll finish at 4-4. Missouri will be at 3-4 after losing to the Vols but can get to 4-4 with a win over Arkansas. But they’ll still lose the head-to-head with Tennessee. Losing to Vandy will still taste like vomit, but at least Tennessee will be atop the Second Tier.

The Vols will also finish at 4-4 if they lose to Missouri but beat Vanderbilt. But Missouri would be 3-4 after beating Tennessee and would have to lose to Arkansas for Tennessee to finish ahead of them. The only teams that have lost to Arkansas this year are Portland State and Colorado State. Draw your own conclusions.

The most likely scenario, though, includes Tennessee beating Vanderbilt and Missouri beating Arkansas, as ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 91.2% chance against Vandy and Missouri an 84.4% chance against Arkansas. Assuming the FPI is right, the SEC East’s Second Tier will come down to the winner of the Tennessee-Missouri game Saturday night. If the Vols win, they’ll be 5-3 with Missouri at 3-5. If Missouri wins, both teams will be 4-4 and the Tigers will have the tiebreaker.

So yeah, the outcome of this weekend’s game between the Vols and Tigers will almost certainly determine whether Tennessee accomplishes the preseason goal of finishing at the top of the Second Tier of the SEC East. If they lose, there’s still a small chance, but they’ll not only have to beat Vandy, Missouri will have to lose to Arkansas. I might be able to bring myself to root for pigs, but I don’t know if I can muster up the expectation that they’ll actually win.

But if the Vols beat Missouri this weekend, Tennessee will hit that goal no matter what happens next week. So let’s do that.

Go Vols. Beat Missouri.