It’s time for this week’s Locks & Keys, and it’s FLORIDA WEEK!!! Though that may not mean as much to you as it used to, it should. This is still a big game, and though Georgia may be the beast of the East this year, the Vols must win this football game this weekend to have a strong chance at the division.

It also needs to win to turn the vibes of the early season toward a positive manner. Things aren’t perfect on Rocky Top right now, by any stretch, but the record is. That’s all that matters. If it still is after Saturday, it’ll be time to start getting excited.

This is going to be one of those years where UT needs to be up every single week it’s playing in the conference because anybody on the schedule can beat this team. But this team can also beat anybody on its schedule (with the possible exception of Alabama). So, if that ain’t fun, I don’t know what is.

As for the Locks, last week went much better than the first one.

Last week, I went 4-2-1, which is a little better than the week before. That pushes the overall season record to 6-5-1, which isn’t too bad. Hey, we’re up (fake) money, aren’t we? Why are you mad?

UTSA was getting 16.5 points against Baylor. Are you serious? Easy pickins. Easy. The Roadrunners won outright. Houston took care of business in an ugly, sloppy game against Arizona, Oklahoma State covered 28 against South Alabama, and South Carolina easily beat Missouri, who was favored by 2.5 points. Iowa pushed with a 44-41 overtime win over rival Iowa State. Then, I lost the Tulane over (THOSE TEAMS JUST STOPPED SCORING IN THE FOURTH QUARTER!!!!) Then, yeah, Kansas was trounced against Central Michigan. I blew that completely. Sorry about that.

4-2-1. There you have it. Hey, that looks like Tennessee’s defensive scheme against Georgia Tech. At times, it appeared they were playing 7-on-11.

Before we get to the keys, let’s take a look at last week’s.

• Better defensive line rotation: Was it better? Yeah, it was. But it still wasn’t as good as I want it. I really would like to have seen depth guys like Quay Picou, Alexis Johnson, Kivon Bennett and Co. more than I saw. But it wasn’t too bad. We got to see a lot of Kyle Phillips, and he played well. The linemen weren’t huffing and puffing, so that’s an improvement from Week 1. We’ll see how this week goes. SUCCESS!
• Dormady reading through progressions: There were a couple of situations where Dormady locked in on his receiver, including the awful interception in the end zone that cost the Vols points for the first time they traveled inside the opponents’ 40-yard line all season. But Marquez Callaway was far from the only weapon. UT looked to get other guys involved, and nine different players caught passes. SUCCESS!
• Start stronger: How’s a 91-yard kickoff return for a touchdown by Ty Chandler on the opening kick of the game? Yeah, we’ll take that. SUCCESS!
• Build up Bituli and Co: I said I couldn’t imagine a defense without sophomore Daniel Bituli in it, and it appears coordinator Bob Shoop feels the same way. We’ll see how it goes against the Gators, but it sounds like the Vols believe Bituli has to play and start. I really wanted to see more Will Ignont and Quart’e Sapp, but that’s OK. I got my dose of Bituli. SUCCESS!
• Don’t get anybody hurt: The only real important injury was to backup tight end Eli Wolf, who won’t play against the Gators. While that’s a major bummer, it’s normal fallout from a college football game. There weren’t any irreplaceable injuries against the Sycamores. SUCCESS!

So, Tennessee basically did everything it was supposed to do in a 42-7 tuneup win over Indiana State as it geared up for the Gators. We didn’t really learn anything, but we didn’t lose anything, either.

Let’s take a look at Tennessee’s keys to this week’s vital game against the Gators.

KEYS

Take Care of the Ball

Tennessee had two costly turnovers against Indiana State, and though they didn’t really matter, they did cost the Vols 14 points. The first one — a Dormady fumble — led to ISU’s only points of the game. The second one — a Dormady interception — cost the Vols a touchdown, as it was thrown in the end zone.

That cannot happen against the Gators.

This may not be the mighty Gators we’re used to seeing, but it’s still a team with talented players that has gone to the SEC Championship in the each of the past two years. It’s also a team that has had its way with the Vols until last year. Even though Florida isn’t good, the Gators still think they are. That’s dangerous. The Vols cannot give them extra possessions, and UT must continue to do the things it has done offensively, which is put the ball in the end zone once they get to the plus side of the field.

Impose Your Will

Throughout the first two games, it looks like the strength of Tennessee’s team is running John Kelly between the tackles. Senior center Jashon Robertson has been impressive, and so has freshman guard Trey Smith. The other guard spot, which has been shared by Jack Jones and Venzell Boulware, has been strong, too.

The Vols need to continue that success running the ball up the middle. It may not be sexy, but Kelly is a beast, and he looks great the more you feed him. And, hey, give him a breather or two, too. Ty Chandler, Carlin Fils-aime and Tim Jordan are all capable backups.

There’s no reason for Tennessee to be cute. Put this game on the shoulders of your best player and the line in front of him. Florida’s strength is its defensive line, so this is going to be strength vs. strength. The Vols must win this at the point of attack.

Cover Those Edges

Even when the Sycamores were 0-for-11 on third downs last week, there were still fundamental flaws on UT’s defense. The Vols haven’t proven yet that they can cover the edges of the field, and the Yellow Jackets and Sycamores both had too many situations where they turned the corner and got upfield.

That’s not the strength of Colton Jumper’s game, which is why Bituli needs to be on the field. The Vols also need more help from defensive end Jonathan Kongbo, who hasn’t looked like himself in the first two games. That may be why we see Kyle Phillips more against Florida. The Vols also need players like Nigel Warrior, Todd Kelly Jr. and Rashaan Gaulden to step up in the run game.

This is a game where the matchups seem to favor the Vols. They need to get hyped up early. We haven’t seen this defense against a conventional offense yet, and we will this weekend. It’s time for them to flip the narrative.

Get a Game-Changer

It’s a major sting that the nation’s top kick returner — Evan Berry — is questionable. If he can play, the Vols need to put him in there. But even if he can’t, Chandler is a game-changer returning kicks, and Callaway is a strong punt returner, too.

The Vols could use a special teams touchdown, a pick-six or a deep catch or long run. The Gators aren’t a team anybody expects to light up the scoreboard. If the Vols can get a game-changing, momentum-swinging play or two, they may just pour it on the way they did during the second half last year. If this is a close game, it may favor the Gators in the Swamp.

Be the Aggressor

It took a player with as much swagger as any Vol has had in the past decade to take over and lead Tennessee to a win last year when Jauan Jennings stepped up. It also didn’t hurt to have a dual-threat star at quarterback in Joshua Dobbs who played on another level.

Neither of those guys will trot onto the field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium this weekend.

But Tennessee needs to play like the team that won last year. The psychological advantage needs to be over. The Gators are confident again, of course, but UT needs to do its talking on the field. The Vols need to play with more of an edge, and if they do, they may just have a little win streak against UF and send the Gators to their first 0-2 record since 1971.

LOCKS

Alright, we’re 6-5-1. I’m going to give you six picks that I really, really like this week, so let’s try to go undefeated, shall we?

1. UCLA -3.5 over Memphis: This is an odd game with the Bruins traveling across country to play a quality Tigers team in the Liberty Bowl. But you’ve got to love Josh Rosen right now, and though Memphis didn’t get the chance to play last week’s major showdown against UCF, the Tigers proved to be vulnerable against the pass against Louisiana-Monroe in Week 1. I like a lot of points to be scored, but the Bruins cover.
2. Tulsa +10.5 over Toledo: I cannot believe I’m getting double-digit points in this one. Yes, I know it’s at the Glass Bowl, where the Rockets are tough. But the Golden Hurricane are my jam, man. They’re a money-making machine. They are 4-0 against the spread in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record. They cover easily, and it may be worth betting the money line.
3. Clemson -3.5 over Louisville: I was dead wrong about Kelly Bryant, and the Tigers look like they are a legit contender yet again this year. They’ll make it two big-time wins in a row after dispatching the Cardinals handily this week. Nobody else has Lamar Jackson, who is a freak of nature. But Clemson has a dynamite front seven, and they’ll at least slow him down enough to win by a touchdown or more.
4. North Carolina -7.5 over Old Dominion: It’s hard to believe the Tar Heels are 0-2, and, no, they aren’t a very good team. But they’ll beat the Monarchs handily. They beat a horrible UMass team just 17-7 a week ago, and though UNC has had its struggles, it can still put up points. I’m not sure ODU can.
5. Purdue/Missouri under 78.5: A WHOLE LOT of points are going to be scored in this one, but SEVENTY NINE? I’m just not sure about that. That’s a whole lot of real estate on the under, and as a bonus pick, I love the Boilermakers, too. They would have been my seventh pick. The only reason why I didn’t include them is it’s on the road. But go ahead and do it. For me.
6. Tennessee +5.5 over Florida: Because I feel obligated to, I chose this game over Purdue. I really do think the Vols are a better team, and I can’t justify any reason why the Gators should be 5.5 point favorites, no matter where the game is. What have they proven? That should be a slap in the face to the Vols, and they should play that way. I like UT to win this one outright, 30-24.