Tennessee’s five-game forecast: mostly gloomy

Half the league takes the weekend off, Tennessee gets rolled as expected, Southern Miss wins a thriller, Missouri flirts with 70 points again, and LSU continues to improve. What’s it all mean for the Vols the rest of the way?

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

The Vols after Alabama

The Vols lost to Alabama 45-7, barely missing on a historical spread of 37 points, and got outgained 604 yards to 108. The first downs race was 35-7. Tennessee would have barely won with a score of 49-45 if you gave Tennessee seven points for a first down and Alabama seven points for a touchdown. The offense looked inept once again, and although it didn’t feel like the defense was terrible, it still gave up 600 yards and 45 points.

And yet, I don’t know that any of that tells us anything that we didn’t already know. Alabama just magnified the team’s warts and shined a national spotlight on them. It’s embarrassing, but it’s not like it was a well-kept secret or anything.

So, I’m actually not feeling any worse about the Vols themselves after this weekend. There may actually be some raw material to work with the rest of the way . . . but I’m not ready to go anywhere in that direction yet, either. So, status quo this week.

The Vols’ future opponents

10/28/17: Kentucky (5-2, 2-2 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Southern Miss, 24-17.
• W2: Best E Kentucky, 27-16.
• W3: Beat South Carolina, 23-13.
• W4: Lost to #20 Florida, 28-27.
• W5: Beat E Michigan, 24-20.
• W6: Beat Missouri, 40-34.
• W7: Bye
• W8: Lost to Mississippi State, 45-7.
• W9: #25 Tennessee
• W10: Ole Miss
• W11: At Vanderbilt
• W12: At #15 Georgia
• W13: #17 Lousiville

Expectations for a Vols win: Kentucky’s offense crossed midfield only three times. Still, I’m keeping this one at 50/50.

11/4/17: Southern Miss (5-2, 3-1 C-USA, NR)

• W1: Lost to Kentucky, 24-17.
• W2: Beat Southern, 45-0.
• W3: Beat UL Monroe, 28-17.
• W4: Bye
• W5: Lost to North Texas, 43-28.
• W6: Beat UTSA, 31-29.
• W7: Beat UTEP, 24-0.
• W8: Beat LA Tech, 34-27 in double overtime.
• W9: UAB
• W10: At #25 Tennessee
• W11: At Rice
• W12: Charlotte
• W13: At Marshall

Expectations for a Vols win: Southern Miss had to stage a comeback to get the win against LA Tech. They didn’t make it 27-19 until there was 1:23 left, and then they needed to recover an onside kick, score again, and get a two-point conversion to get it to overtime. The craziness didn’t stop there, as both teams threw an interception on their respective possessions in the first overtime. Credit to Southern Miss for all of that and for finally getting over the top in the second overtime to pull off the dramatic win. All of that said, I’m keeping this one at 50/50.

11/11/17: Missouri (2-5, 0-4 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Missouri State 72-43.
• W2: Lost to South Carolina, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Purdue, 35-3.
• W4: Lost to #15 Auburn, 51-14.
• W5: Bye
• W6: Lost to Kentucky, 40-34.
• W7: Lost to #4 Georgia, 53-28.
• W8: Beat Idaho, 68-21.
• W9: At UConn
• W10: #22 Florida
• W11: #25 Tennessee
• W12: At Vanderbilt
• W13: At Arkansas

Expectations for a Vols win: Oh, good. Missouri is finding itself just in time. Or maybe they just played actual potatoes this weekend. I don’t know. Regardless, they can put up points. Sometimes. Other times not. So, I’m giving them 50 for putting up a lot of points sometimes and taking away 50 for sometimes not being very good at all.

11/18/17: LSU (6-2, 3-1 SEC, #24)

• W1: Beat BYU, 27-0.
• W2: Beat Chattanooga, 45-10.
• W3: Lost to Mississippi State, 37-7.
• W4: Beat Syracuse, 35-26.
• W5: Lost at home, during Homecoming, to Troy, 24-21.
• W6: Beat #21 Florida, 17-16.
• W7: Beat #10 Auburn, 27-23.
• W8: Beat Ole Miss, 40-24.
• W9: Bye
• W10: At #1 Alabama
• W11: Arkansas
• W12: At #25 Tennessee
• W13: Texas A&M

Expectations for a Vols win: Oh, good. LSU is rolling again, too. Fantastic. Derrius Guice ran for 276 yards himself. I moved this to 30% last week, and I’m moving it even further this week, to 25%.

11/25/17: Vanderbilt (3-4, 0-4 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat MTSU, 28-6.
• W2: Beat Alabama A&M, 42-0.
• W3: Beat #19 Kansas State, 14-7.
• W4: Lost to #1 Alabama, 59-0.
• W5: Lost to #21 Florida, 38-24.
• W6: Lost to #5 Georgia, 45-14.
• W7: Lost to Ole Miss, 57-35.
• W8: Bye
• W9: At South Carolina
• W10: W Kentucky
• W11: Kentucky
• W12: Missouri
• W13: At #25 Tennessee

Expectations for a Vols win: They didn’t play this week, so I’m keeping this a 50/50 game.

All of that puts me at 5.25 wins. Use this form to get your own calculation:

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia Tech (4-2, 3-1 ACC, RV)

• W1: Lost to Tennessee 42-41 in double overtime.
• W2: Beat Jacksonville State, 37-10.
• W3: At UCF (canceled)
• W4: Beat Pitt, 35-17.
• W5: Beat North Carolina, 33-7.
• W6: Bye
• W7: Lost to #11 Miami, 25-24.
• W8: Beat Wake Forest, 38-24.
• W9: At Clemson
• W10: At Virginia
• W11: Virginia Tech
• W12: At Duke
• W13: Georgia

The Yellow Jackets are still one play and one point away from being undefeated. That Clemson game this week could be entertaining.

Indiana State (0-7, 0-4 MVFC, NR)

• W1: Lost to E Illinois, 22-20.
• W2: Lost to Tennessee, 42-7.
• W3: Lost to Liberty, 42-41 on a blocked 23-yard field goal attempt as time expired.
• W4: Bye
• W5: Lost to Illinois State, 24-13.
• W6: Lost to North Dakota State, 52-0.
• W7: Lost to South Dakota, 56-6.
• W8: Lost to S Illinois, 45-24.
• W9: At Missouri State
• W10: Youngstown State
• W11: W Illinois
• W12: At Northern Iowa

Florida (3-3, 3-2 SEC, NR)

• W1: Lost to #11 Michigan, 33-17.
• W2: Canceled game with N Colorado.
• W3: Beat #25 Tennessee, 26-20.
• W4: Beat Kentucky, 28-27.
• W5: Beat Vanderbilt, 38-24.
• W6: Lost to LSU, 17-16 on a missed extra point due to a bad snap and hold.
• W7: Lost to Texas A&M, 19-17.
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs Georgia
• W10: At Missouri
• W11: At South Carolina
• W12: UAB
• W13: Florida State

UMass (1-6, 0-0 IND, NR)

• W1: Lost to Hawaii, 38-35.
• W2: Lost to C. Carolina, 38-28.
• W3: Lost to Old Dominion, 17-7.
• W4: Lost to Temple, 29-21.
• W5: Lost to Tennessee, 17-13.
• W6: Lost to Ohio, 58-50.
• W7: Bye
• W8: At USF (canceled)
• W9: Beat Ga Southern, 55-20.
• W10: Appalachian State
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Maine
• W13: At BYU

Georgia (7-0, 4-0 SEC, #3)

• W1: Beat Appalachian State, 31-10. QB Jacob Eason went down, but freshman Jake Fromm looked good and took care of business.
• W2: Beat #24 Notre Dame, 20-19.
• W3: Beat Samford, 42-14.
• W4: Easily handled #17 Mississippi State, 31-3.
• W5: Demoralized Tennessee, 41-0.
• W6: Beat Vanderbilt, 45-14.
• W7: Beat Missouri, 53-28.
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs. #22 Florida
• W10: South Carolina
• W11: At #13 Auburn
• W12: Kentucky
• W13: At Georgia Tech

South Carolina (5-2, 3-2 SEC, RV)

• W1: Beat NC State, 35-28.
• W2: Beat Missouri, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Kentucky, 23-13.
• W4: Beat LA Tech, 17-16.
• W5: Lost to Texas A&M, 24-17.
• W6: Beat Arkansas, 48-22.
• W7: Beat Tennessee, 15-9.
• W8: Bye
• W9: Vanderbilt
• W10: At #15 Georgia
• W11: #22 Florida
• W12: Wofford
• W13: #3 Clemson

Alabama (8-0, 5-0 SEC, #1)

• W1: Beat #3 Florida State, 24-7.
• W2: Beat Fresno State, 41-10.
• W3: Beat Colorado State, 41-23.
• W4: Beat Vanderbilt, 59-0.
• W5: Beat Ole Miss, 66-3.
• W6: Beat Texas A&M, 27-19.
• W7: Beat Arkansas, 41-9.
• W8: Beat Tennessee, 45-7.
• W9: Bye
• W10: #12 LSU
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Mercer
• W13: At #13 Auburn