When the lines came out this week, Vegas had Tennessee as a 3.5-point favorite over the Aggies with an over/under of 56.5. As I write this, the Vols are now -3, and the over/under is 55.5. Here’s Hat Guy’s two cents. Heading into Week 7, he’s switching from the best two comps to the best four.
Tennessee vs Texas A&M, according to Hat Guy
From Tennessee’s perspective
Texas A&M’s defense is allowing an average of 19.8 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:
- Florida 16.8
- UTSA 29.2
- South Carolina 29.4
- Virginia 31.8
Tennessee’s points against those teams:
- Florida 16
- UTSA 45
- South Carolina 41
- Virginia 49
Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 141%
Texas A&M’s offense is scoring an average of 35.5 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:
- Florida 27.2
- South Carolina 27
- UTSA 25.2
- Virginia 22.3
Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:
- Florida 29
- South Carolina 20
- UTSA 14
- Virginia 13
Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 75%
Estimated score: Tennessee 28, Texas A&M 26.6
From Texas A&M’s perspective
Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 17.8 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:
- Auburn 18.2
- Alabama 15.2
- Miami (Florida) 14.6
- Arkansas 25.3
Texas A&M’s points against those teams:
- Auburn 27
- Alabama 20
- Miami (Florida) 33
- Arkansas 34
Texas A&M’s offensive premium/discount: 156%
Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 36.2 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:
- Miami (Florida) 39
- Arkansas 31.3
- Alabama 31.2
- Auburn 29.6
Texas A&M’s defensive performance against those teams:
- Miami (Florida) 48
- Arkansas 22
- Alabama 26
- Auburn 10
Texas A&M’s defensive premium/discount: 81%
Estimated score: Texas A&M 27.8, Tennessee 29.3
SPM Final Estimates
Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:
| Home | Home Points | Away | Away Points | Favorite | Spread | Home RY | Away RY | Home PY | Away PY |
| Tennessee | 28.7 | Texas A&M | 27.2 | Tennessee | -1.5 | 130.7 | 140.8 | 214.1 | 206.7 |
Hat Guy likes the Vols to win but A&M to cover (Vols, -1.5). He disagrees with the Vegas opening spread by only 2 points. His over/under, by the way, is 55.9, which is right between the early and late over/under according to Vegas.
Guts and Eyeballs
The closest defensive comp from Tennessee’s perspective is actually Florida. The other three are on the wrong side and significantly further away. Florida was by far Tennessee’s worst game, but . . . it was early, it was away, it was without Cooper Mays. Still, I don’t like it. Adding to that, A&M is the best offensive team our defense has faced so far this season. By a touchdown.
Other predictions from other systems
Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Tennessee 30, Texas A&M 27 or one point less for each team. Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee 28-26 (Vols -2).
Bottom line
- Vegas: Vols -3 (~Tennessee 30, Texas A&M 27; Tennessee 29, Texas A&M 26)
- Hat Guy: Vols -1.5 (Tennessee 28.7, A&M 27.2) (does not cover)
- SP+: Vols -2 (Tennessee 28, A&M 26) (does not cover)
- Guts and Eyeballs: Worried that our offense is overvalued relative to A&M’s defense
What do y’all think?