The Vols emerge from The Gauntlet mostly intact and now travel to South Carolina to take on a Gamecocks team coming off a bye week. Has the difficult stretch of the last three or four games made Tennessee stronger or has it taken a toll?
Those intangibles will likely be significant factors in this weekend’s matchup, but first, let’s take a look at the stats and comps to see what the Statsy Preview Machine says.
Predictions
SPM: South Carolina 36, Tennessee 19
Eye- and gut-adjusted: South Carolina 28, Tennessee 24
Tennessee rushing yards: 130
South Carolina rushing yards: 130
Tennessee passing yards: 175
South Carolina passing yards: 260
Tennessee rushing
Tennessee is averaging 140.7 rushing yards per game, while South Carolina is giving up 179.2 per game. To date, Florida is slightly better at defending the run than South Carolina, allowing 163.1, and Tennessee got 156 against the Gators. On the other hand, Vanderbilt is averaging 141.1 rushing yards per game but got only 92 against the Gamecocks, and the Vols’ rushing offense appears to be getting worse, not better.
Based on that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against South Carolina is 130.
South Carolina rushing
The Tennessee defense is allowing 162.0 rushing yards per game, while the South Carolina run game is averaging 153.7 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is getting 146.7 yards per game on the ground, and they got 95 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 172.3 rushing yards per game and got 126 against Tennessee. So, with the Vols generally holding the most similar opponents to below their season averages, I’m going with South Carolina getting about 110 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.
Tennessee passing
Tennessee is averaging 209.9 passing yards per game, and South Carolina is allowing 199.2. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is giving up 218.5 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 172 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama. They’re allowing 194.5 passing yards per game, and Tennessee somewhat surprisingly got 227 against them.
On the other hand, the Gamecocks’ pass defense generally keeps its most similar opponents to well below their passing yard averages.
Based on all of that, my guess is that Tennessee will put up 175 passing yards this weekend.
South Carolina passing
The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 223.1 passing yards per game. South Carolina is getting 250.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is getting 235.6 yards per game through the air, and they got 190 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is averaging 320.5 passing yards per game and got 429 against Tennessee. The Gamecocks generally get more passing yards than their opponents’ averages, so I’m going with South Carolina getting somewhere around 260 passing yards this week.
Tennessee scoring
Tennessee is averaging 25.9 points per game, and South Carolina is allowing 25.8. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is allowing 31.6 points per game, and Tennessee got 24 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia. They’re allowing 20.5 points per game, and Tennessee got 14 against them. Those games were early in the season, and the Vols scored 21 against Alabama and Florida and 24 against Auburn. So, my prediction is that Tennessee will score right around their average against the Gamecocks. Let’s call it 24 points.
South Carolina scoring
Tennessee is allowing 30.0 points per game. South Carolina is averaging 28.8. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 28.4 points, and they got 24 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 34.4 points and got 47 against Tennessee. The Gamecocks offense has the potential to run away with it, but if it’s a struggle, I like the chances of the Vols defense to hold them below their average.
Looking at things from the Gamecocks’ perspective, though, they got 37 against both Missouri (giving up an average of 30.9 points) and Vanderbilt (average of 24.4).
So . . . I’m going with South Carolina putting up about 28-31 points against Tennessee. Calling it 28.
Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas
Left alone, the SPM says South Carolina 36, Tennessee 19, a spread of -17.
With eyeball and gut adjustments, I’m going with South Carolina 28, Tennessee 24, a spread of -4.
Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 34.2% chance of winning and puts the score at South Carolina 33.7, Tennessee 26.6, a spread of -7.1.
The Vegas spread favors South Carolina by between -7.5 and -8.5, with an over/under of between 53.5-54, which converts to something like 31-23, Gamecocks.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 19.8% chance of winning.