Tennessee opened as an 11-point favorite over Missouri this week, and depending on the source, the line is currently between 12.5 and 13. So . . . does the Statsy Preview Machine think the Vols will cover against the Tigers Saturday? Let’s take a look and then decide whether we think it’s right.
From the perspective of Tennessee
Both Tennessee and Missouri have played one game this year, so the SPM will be combining data from this year and last both for (1) scoring offense and defense (with an adjustment for returning production), and (2) comps.
Tennessee’s Scoring Offense last year: 24.2
Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 31
Tennessee scoring offense to be used (combination of this season and last season): 27.6
Missouri’s Scoring Offense last year: 25.3
Missouri’s Scoring Offense this year: 19
Missouri scoring offense to be used (combination of this season and last season): 22.2
Tennessee’s Scoring Defense last year: 21.7
Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 27
Tennessee scoring defense to be used (combination of this season and last season): 24.3
Missouri’s Scoring Defense last year: 19.4
Missouri’s Scoring Defense this year: 38
Missouri scoring defense to be used (combination of this season and last season): 28.7
Tennessee’s offense
The Missouri scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
- Mississippi State 28.8
- South Carolina 26.1
Tennessee scored 20 points against Mississippi State and 41 points against South Carolina last year. Combined, that’s 111% of what those teams usually give up. So that makes the estimated points for Tennessee against Missouri 31.9.
Tennessee having only played South Carolina so far in 2020, the Vols have obviously scored 100% of what their opponents gave up. That makes the estimated points for Tennessee against Missouri 28.7.
Combining both 2019 and 2020 comps, the estimated points for Tennessee against Missouri is 30.3.
Tennessee’s defense
The Missouri scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
- South Carolina 22.4
- UAB 23.1
Tennessee gave up 7 points to UAB and 21 points to South Carolina last year.
So, against the best comps, Tennessee allowed 61% of what those teams usually score, making the estimated points for Missouri against Tennessee 13.5.
For 2020, the Vols have allowed 100% of what its opponent have given up, making the estimated points for Missouri against Tennessee 22.2.
Combining both 2019 and 2020 comps, the estimated points for Missouri against Tennessee is 17.9.
Therefore, the estimated score from Tennessee’s perspective is Tennessee 30.3, Missouri 17.9.
From the perspective of Missouri
The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Missouri opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
- South Carolina 26.1
- Mississippi 26.5
Missouri scored 38 points against Ole Miss and 34 points against South Carolina. That’s 137% of what those teams usually give up, which puts the estimated points for Missouri against Tennessee at 33.3.
As it does from Tennessee’s perspective, the SPM for 2020 defaults to its opponent’s scoring defense because there is only one comp to look at, so the estimated points for Missouri against Tennessee for 2020 is 24.3.
Combining both the 2019 and 2020 comps, the estimated points for Missouri against Tennessee is 28.8.
The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Missouri opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
- Kentucky 27.2
- Mississippi 26.6
Missouri allowed 29 points to Kentucky and 27 points to Mississippi last year. That’s 104% of what those teams usually score, making the estimated points for Tennessee against Missouri 28.7.
For 2020, the estimated points for Tennessee against Missouri is 27.6.
Combining both the 2019 and 2020 comps, the estimated points for Tennessee against Missouri from Missouri’s perspective is 28.2.
Therefore, the estimated score from Missouri’s perspective is Missouri 28.8, Tennessee 28.2.
SPM Final Estimates
Throw all that in the pot, turn up the heat, and here’s what’s for dinner:
SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 29.2, Missouri 23.3
SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee -5.9
Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 5.1
That makes this a Category 1 game for the Statsy Preview Machine, meaning it’s not overly confident about its conclusion because it is not far off from the Vegas spread.
Eyeball adjustments
I’m feeling pretty good about the results from Tennessee’s perspective, as my current belief is that Tennessee and South Carolina are fairly evenly matched. The 41 points that the Vols scored against the Gamecocks last year is probably inflated, but that inflation is mostly accounted for by combining with another comp of the same year and then combining that result with this year’s results.
I am suspicious, however, of the results from Missouri’s perspective, as playing Alabama in the first game of the 2020 season is almost certainly not an even matchup, meaning the 2020 comps are probably lower than they should be. Removing the 2020 comps from Missouri’s perspective gives more points to Missouri than it does to Tennessee. (It would be Tigers 33.3, Vols 28.7.) Remember, the Vols may have dominated Missouri on the field last year, but they did not dominate them on the scoreboard, winning only 24-20. However, one would think that this year’s Missouri team is not yet up to speed with a new coaching staff and system and plenty of new players. All of that leads me to the conclusion that although I am suspicious of the 2020 comps from Missouri’s perspective, I’m leaning toward believing the results.
So this week, I am making no eyeball-adjustments and sticking with the SPM to predict a score of Tennessee 29, Missouri 23. Neither I nor the Statsy Preview Machine like the Vols to cover in this one. I’m bracing for a somewhat disappointingly- close contest, but also hoping I am wrong.
Other predictions from other systems
Vegas: As I said before, the Vols opened as 11-point favorites and are currently 12.5- to 13-point favorites. With an over/under of 48.5-49.5, that translates to something like Tennessee 30, Missouri 19.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee better at 27-17 (Vols -10), and gives the Vols a 71% chance of winning, but like us, still does not like the Vols to cover.
Bottom line
The GRT Statsy Preview Machine and my own eyeballs like the Vols to win but not cover this week, although neither of us is beating our chest about it.
- Vegas: Tennessee, -11 (~Tennessee 30, Missouri 19)
- SP+: Tennessee 27, Missouri 17 (doesn’t cover)
- SPM: Tennessee 29, Missouri 23 (doesn’t cover)
- Me: Tennessee 29, Missouri 23 (doesn’t cover)
Season results on Tennessee games
What do y’all think?