Tennessee opened as a 14.5-point underdog to Georgia this week, and the line is currently at 12.5. So . . . does the Statsy Preview Machine think Georgia beats the Vols Saturday? Here’s what the stupid numbers say and why my gut is shaking its head.
From the perspective of Tennessee
Both Tennessee and Georgia have played two games this year, so the SPM will only be using 2020 data.
Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 33
Georgia’s Scoring Offense this year: 32
Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 19.5
Georgia’s Scoring Defense this year: 8
The Georgia scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2020 data:
- South Carolina 34.5
- Missouri 36.5
Tennessee scored 35 points against Missouri and 31 points against South Carolina. That’s 93% of what those teams average giving up.
Estimated points for Tennessee against Georgia: 7.4
The Georgia scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2020 data:
- South Carolina 25.5
- Missouri 15.5
Tennessee allowed 12 points against Missouri and 27 points against South Carolina, 95% of what those teams are averaging.
Estimated points for Georgia against Tennessee: 30.4
Estimated score: Tennessee 7.4, Georgia 30.4
From the perspective of Georgia
The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Georgia opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2020 data:
- Auburn 20
- Arkansas 25.5
Georgia scored 37 points against Arkansas and 27 points against Auburn. That’s 141% of what those teams average giving up.
Estimated points for Georgia against Tennessee: 27.5
The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Georgia opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2020 data:
- Auburn 17.5
- Arkansas 15.5
Georgia allowed 10 points to Arkansas and 6 points to Auburn, 48% of what those teams usually score.
Estimated points for Tennessee against Georgia: 15.8
Estimated score: Georgia 27.5, Tennessee 15.8
SPM Final Estimates
Throw all that in the pot, turn up the heat, and here’s what’s for dinner:
SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 11.6, Georgia 29
SPM Final estimated spread: Georgia -17.4
Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 2.9
That makes this a Category 1 game for the Statsy Preview Machine, meaning it’s not overly confident about its conclusion that Georgia will cover because it is not far off from the Vegas spread.
Eyeball adjustments
I don’t find anything wrong with the numbers on this one, but for some reason, I just think the spread is too high. The SPM is basically showing that both defenses are going to be a drag on the respective offenses, but that Georgia’s defense is going to have more of an impact on Tennessee’s offense than the Vols’ defense is going to have on the Bulldogs’ offense. That makes sense, and it may be the case, because Georgia’s offense is national-championship-caliber elite. The thing my gut is yelling at the numbers, though, is that Tennessee’s offense is currently better-equipped to handle a frustrating defense than is Georgia’s. I don’t think either team is scoring 30 points in this game. More like 20-24, and I think either or both could do it.
So, my eyeball-adjustments this week are more like gut-adjustments, and I’m predicting a score of Georgia 24, Tennessee 20. The Statsy Preview Machine likes the Bulldogs to cover, but I don’t.
Other predictions from other systems
Vegas: As I said before, the Bulldogs opened as 14.5-point favorites and are currently 12.5-point favorites. With an over/under of 44.5, that translates to something like Georgia 29, Tennessee 15.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Georgia, 28-15 (Bulldogs -13), and gives the Vols a 23% chance of winning. He’s using a 12-point spread, and he likes Georgia to cover that.
Bottom line
The GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks Georgia is going to cover, regardless of whether you use a 14.5-point or 12-point spread. My gut says no either way. Nobody’s feeling especially confident about any of it.
- Vegas: Georgia, -14.5 (~Georgia 29, Tennessee 15)
- SP+: Georgia 28, Tennessee 15 (doesn’t cover the opening spread)
- GRT’s SPM: Georgia 29, Tennessee 12 (covers)
- Me: Georgia 24, Tennessee 20 (doesn’t cover)
Season results on Tennessee games
- Week 4: The SPM and I were both right (albeit overconfident) in saying the Vols would cover against South Carolina.
- Week 5: The SPM and I were both wrong in thinking the Vols would not cover and would win by only 6 points. They won by 23.
What do y’all think?
