Among much bad news for the 2017 Tennessee Volunteer football team, there is at least this bit of good news: For its last game of the season, Tennessee will be playing against the worst rushing offense, the worst rushing defense, and the worst scoring defense it has seen all season.
Tennessee rushing
Tennessee is averaging 123.1 rushing yards per game, while Vanderbilt is giving up 211.5 per game, which makes them the worst rushing defense the Vols will have faced the entire season. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Vanderbilt is Massachusetts, which is allowing 181.5. Tennessee got 135 on the ground against them. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Vanderbilt is 170.
Vanderbilt rushing
The Tennessee defense is allowing 251.7 rushing yards per game, while the Vanderbilt run game is averaging 94.5 yards per game. That also makes Vandy the worst rushing offense Tennessee has seen all season. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is averaging 131.5 rushing yards per game and got 194 against Tennessee. I’m guessing Vanderbilt will get about 140 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.
Tennessee passing
Tennessee is averaging 172.8 passing yards per game, and Vanderbilt is allowing 195.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia Tech, which is giving up 198.3 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee, in another life, put up 221 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is LSU. They’re allowing 181.5 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 249 against them. My guess is that Tennessee will put up 200 passing yards this weekend.
Vanderbilt passing
The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 150.6 passing yards per game. Vanderbilt is getting 240.0. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is getting 220.8 yards per game through the air, and they got 129 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Southern Mississippi, which is averaging 256.5 passing yards per game and got 161 against Tennessee. I’m going with Vanderbilt putting up about 150 passing yards against Tennessee.
Tennessee scoring
Tennessee is averaging 19.5 points per game, and Vanderbilt is allowing 32.0, which makes them the worst scoring defense the Vols have seen this year. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Missouri. They’re allowing 30.5 points per game, and Tennessee got 17 against them. My prediction is that Tennessee will score around 24 points against Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt scoring
Tennessee is allowing 27.9 points per game. Vanderbilt is averaging 23.0. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 22.1 points, and they got 26 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is averaging 25.4 points and got 15 against Tennessee. I’m going with Vanderbilt putting up about 21 points against Tennessee.
SUMMARY
- Tennessee rushing yards: 170
- Vanderbilt rushing yards: 140
- Tennessee passing yards: 200
- Vanderbilt passing yards: 150
- Tennessee points: 24
- Vanderbilt points: 21
Those are my eyeball-adjusted predictions. For the record, the SPM itself is spitting out Tennessee 24.3, Vanderbilt 19.8.
Current betting lines and other statistical models
The SPM mostly agrees with Vegas all the way around this week, as the spread opened at Tennessee -1, with an over/under of 45.5. That makes it look like Tennessee, 23-22 or so.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 69% chance of beating Vandy. S&P+ likes Vandy, but only with a gun pointed to its head, as the Vols have a 49% chance of winning. They project the score to be Vandy, 25.5-25.
So, the FPI, the SPM, and Vegas all like the Vols in a close one, and S&P+ is quibbling over decimals.
Last Week
Here’s how the statsy preview machine did for the game between Tennessee and LSU last week.
- Tennessee rushing yards: 110 (actually 38)
- LSU rushing yards: 300 (actually 200)
- Tennessee passing yards: 110 (actually 249)
- LSU passing yards: 200 (actually 81)
- Tennessee points: 13 (actually 10)
- LSU points: 24 (actually 30)
Again, those were eyeball-adjusted numbers. The SPM itself said LSU 17.3, Tennessee 6.3.
Did the Statsy Preview Machine win in Vegas?
The line was LSU -14, and the SPM said they woulldn’t cover, so no, the SPM lost this game against the spread. Overall, though, the SPM went 37-21 (63.79%) against the spread for the week. Over the six weeks we’ve been testing it, it’s gone 67.92%, 53.06%, 54.55%, 55.93%, 46.43%, and 63.79%, for an overall rate of 56.97%. It doesn’t understand the 2017 Tennessee Volunteer football team.
