Tennessee’s off again this week, so I figured we’d use this spot for an SPM update and its favorite picks for the week.
The SPM’s performance so far in 2019
This week, the SPM went 25-23 (52.08%) overall. When the difference between the SPM spread and the Vegas spread was over a certain pre-determined number (the “confidence threshold”), the SPM was 12-5 (70.59%), and when the difference was over that number but under another pre-determined number (the “confidence range”), the SPM was 7-2 (77.78%).
For the season, the SPM is now 277-257 (51.87%) overall, 121-89 (57.62%) over the confidence threshold, and 70-37 (65.42%) in the confidence range.
SP+ finished last week at 26-22 (54.17%) and is still 55% on the season. Our SPM has had its legs for over a month now, but it still hasn’t caught up to SP+ for the season.
SPM favorite picks this week
Here are the SPM’s favorite picks for this week:
| Away | Home | Favorite | Spread | SPM Favorite | SPM Spread | SPM Pick ATS |
| Georgia | Auburn | Georgia | -2.5 | Georgia | -11.7 | Georgia |
| USC | California | USC | -6.5 | California | -2.7 | California |
| LSU | Mississippi | LSU | -21 | LSU | -30.3 | LSU |
| Wyoming | Utah State | Utah State | -6 | Wyoming | -4 | Wyoming |
| Louisiana Tech | Marshall | Marshall | -2.5 | Louisiana Tech | -7.7 | Louisiana Tech |
| Navy | Notre Dame | Notre Dame | -9 | Navy | -1.3 | Navy |
| Troy | Texas State | Troy | -8 | Troy | -20.2 | Troy |
| Buffalo | Kent State | Buffalo | -6 | Buffalo | -19.4 | Buffalo |
What do y’all think?