A few days ago, Phil Steele posted a ranking of all 128 college football teams by how many starts they lost to injury last season. It will come as no surprise to Vols fans that Tennessee is near the top (or bottom, depending on how you look at it) of the list.
Because Steele’s list is sorted by the fewest starts lost to most, I have taken the liberty of re-ordering it by most to least. The entire re-sorted list can be found here. After re-sorting, here are the top 17:
| 2016 Starters Lost to Injury | Total Starts Lost | Starts Lost % | Starts Lost Rank | Poised to Improve Rank |
| Syracuse | 50 | 18.90% | 128 | 1 |
| Tennessee | 52 | 18.20% | 127 | 2 |
| SMU | 42 | 15.90% | 126 | 3 |
| Oklahoma | 44 | 15.40% | 125 | 4 |
| E Michigan | 43 | 15.00% | 124 | 5 |
| Arizona | 39 | 14.80% | 123 | 6 |
| New Mexico St | 38 | 14.40% | 122 | 7 |
| BYU | 41 | 14.30% | 121 | 8 |
| Utah | 40 | 14.00% | 120 | 9 |
| Wisconsin | 41 | 13.30% | 119 | 10 |
| Miami (Ohio) | 38 | 13.30% | 117 | 11 |
| Florida | 38 | 13.30% | 117 | 12 |
| Mississippi | 35 | 13.30% | 116 | 13 |
| South Alabama | 37 | 12.90% | 115 | 14 |
| Texas St | 34 | 12.90% | 112 | 15 |
| Oregon | 34 | 12.90% | 112 | 16 |
| Missouri | 34 | 12.90% | 112 | 17 |
So what?
The purpose of posting this isn’t to prove that the 2016 season was as bad as it seemed in terms of injuries, although it does do an especially nice job of that. No, the point is to figure out what all of it might mean for the upcoming season. There, Steele comes through again.
According to Steele, the most important conclusion he’s drawn from analyzing this data is this: Over the past decade, there have been 145 teams that both (1) lost 34 starts or more, and (2) had nine or fewer wins. Of those 145 teams, 69% of them did as well or better (measured by win/loss record) the following year, and 57.9% of them did better.
And now you know why I limited the above table to the Top 17. All of them meet the criteria this year that suggests they will do as well or better this fall.
What about NOT having injuries last year?
The other side of the continuum is also what you’d expect, according to Steele. Of 61 teams that lost only five or fewer starts the prior season, 77% had the same or worse record the following year, and 65.6% had worse records.
Not that it matters much to Vols fans, but the teams on the other end of the spectrum are Western Michigan, Louisiana Tech, and . . . Ohio State. The Buckeyes, much like Alabama, may have so much talent on their roster that they are essentially vaccinated against the peril of injuries, but we’ll see.
What does it mean for the Vols in 2017?
So, whether it’s luck or something else, teams that suffer a lot of injuries in one season generally do better the next year, and teams that don’t, generally do worse.
“Generally” is the key word here, of course. If the trend holds, five (31%) of the 17 teams in table up top will still have worse records this season than last, and the Vols could well be one of them.
Plus, college football is a game of relativity. Being who you are matters, but so does playing who you play. So where do the Vols’ 2017 opponents fall on this list heading into the season?
| 2016 Starters Lost to Injury | Total Starts Lost | Starts Lost % | Starts Lost Rank | Poised to Improve Rank |
| Florida | 38 | 13.30% | 117 | 12 |
| Missouri | 34 | 12.90% | 112 | 17 |
| LSU | 32 | 12.10% | 104 | 24 |
| UMass | 31 | 11.70% | 101 | 26 |
| Alabama | 23 | 7.00% | 60 | 69 |
| South Carolina | 16 | 5.60% | 39 | 90 |
| Georgia Tech | 15 | 5.20% | 33 | 93 |
| Kentucky | 12 | 4.20% | 22 | 106 |
| Vanderbilt | 11 | 3.80% | 19 | 109 |
| Georgia | 10 | 3.50% | 10 | 117 |
| Southern Miss | 7 | 2.40% | 5 | 123 |
Florida, Missouri, and LSU are positioned to bounce back from the injury bug, much the same as the Vols. Assuming we’re not fretting too much over UMass, everyone else seems somewhat vulnerable on this front, though.
Steele’s data seems to suggest that there’s something more to injuries than just sheer luck, which makes sense. Running full speed into adversity has a way of getting your attention and forcing you to address it, and this data is pretty good evidence that when you have a lot of injuries, you respond by emphasizing injury prevention the following season, and by doing so you improve the situation.
We’ll have to wait and see, of course, but if the 2017 Tennessee Volunteers follow the trend, they could be in for an exciting season.
