I was watching the Tennessee Takeover replay of the 2016 Tennessee-Georgia game last night when my middle daughter came downstairs to put her cello away and asked me why I was watching a game I’d already seen. I was especially tired and so I just smiled and said, “We tend to forget stuff.”
As time goes by, we consolidate our memories into efficient shortcuts that are easier to remember, and as a result, the memory of the actual particulars fades. The abbreviated version of the 2016 Vols-Bulldogs game is that the Vols won that game on a miraculous Hail Mary when Josh Dobbs flung the ball to the end zone with four seconds left and Jajuan Jennings leaped over everybody to go get the ball and the victory.
If we sit down and give it more time, we might reminisce about some other details, such as how Georgia had nearly won the game just before that with their own miracle. We might even remember the sack-fumble-touchdown just before that that gave the Vols the lead.
What I’d forgotten, though, until I watched it again last night, is that Tennessee would have had seven more points had Jalen Hurd not decided it would be cool to score a touchdown while walking across the goal line and that Tennessee played that entire game with backup linebackers against a hammer of an offense. I’d forgotten that at least two key guys didn’t even got on the field against Georgia due to injury.
“The window of opportunity has closed”
One of the main talking points at SEC Media Days last week by regional and national pundits was that the Vols had missed their opportunity, that if they couldn’t do it with “all of that talent” last year, there’s no way they can do it this year with “all of that talent” gone.
It’s an easy argument to make, and it’s just as easy to swallow. Tennessee had six players taken in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft this spring – defensive end Derek Barnett, running back Alvin Kamara, defensive back Cam Sutton, linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin, wide receiver Josh Malone, and quarterback Josh Dobbs. That’s the best draft class for the Vols in 15 years.
So, if X + those guys = “disappointment,” then X – those guys = “even more disappointment.” If the Vols couldn’t get it done with them, they surely can’t do it without them. Sounds reasonable.
But there are a couple of problems with that argument, one of them being that it assumes that X is constant when it is not, which is a topic for a later post. Another problem with it is that last year wasn’t always “X + those guys.” “Those guys” weren’t all available at all the right times last season.
Who’s gone now and who was already gone last year
Only half of the guys who were drafted this spring played the entire season. Derek Barnett, Josh Dobbs, and Josh Malone all survived the 2016 gauntlet injury-free. They were important to whatever degree of success you assign to the 2016 season, and they’ll no doubt be missed.
But the other three – Reeves-Maybin, Sutton, and Kamara – all missed significant time or key games. Maybin suffered his injury against Ohio in the third game of the season. He then tried to play against Florida but just wasn’t himself at all and then missed the rest of the season. He was effectively not a part of the wins against Florida and Georgia or the losses to Texas A&M, Alabama, South Carolina, or Vanderbilt.
Cam Sutton also suffered his injury against Ohio early in the season and missed almost all of the key games of the season. He was unavailable for Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M, Alabama, and South Carolina. He did not return until the Kentucky game.
Even Alvin Kamara was absent due to injury for a couple of key games. He was injured against Alabama and then missed the South Carolina game (as well as the Tennessee Tech game) after that.
All of those NFL guys are gone, so it is true that they’ll be unavailable against Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and LSU this year. But Reeves-Maybin and Sutton – two of the three most important players on defense last season – were not available for Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Alabama last season, either. And Kamara was missing for Alabama and South Carolina, and it’s not much of a stretch to say that his absence (and Jalen Hurd’s reported refusal to enter the game) was the difference against the Gamecocks as it resulted in an unprepared backup running back causing a key fumble.
Yes, Barnett, Dobbs, and Malone leaving presents Tennessee with a challenge of replacing NFL-caliber talent. But it’s not telling the whole story to say simply that “all of that talent is gone now.” The rest of the story is that, at the times it mattered most, much of that talent was already gone last year.
