How many games might the Vols win or lose the rest of the way?

Well, this was not a happy post to write. I am trying to not overreact, but I still now have the majority of the remainder of Tennessee’s games at 50%, with Alabama and Southern Miss the only exceptions. Plus, where games are tied at 50%, I’m forming the line in the red zone. Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

The Vols after Georgia

Zero points. 62 yards rushing. 80 yards passing. Two interceptions, two fumbles. Seven first downs, two of which came courtesy of penalties. The defense gave up 41 points.

There’s not much there for Vols fans to feel good about going forward. Maybe Georgia’s just as good as Alabama? That’s a pretty small peg to hang your hat on.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia Tech (3-1, 2-0 ACC, NR)

• W1: Lost to Tennessee 42-41 in double overtime.
• W2: Beat Jacksonville State, 37-10.
• W3: At UCF (canceled)
• W4: Beat Pitt, 35-17.
• W5: Beat North Carolina, 33-7.
• W6: Bye
• W7: At #17 Miami
• W8: Wake Forest
• W9: At #3 Clemson
• W10: At Virginia
• W11: #16 Virginia Tech
• W12: At Duke
• W13: #13 Georgia

Georgia Tech held the ball for 38 minutes against North Carolina, dominating the clock and the Tar Heels, 33-7. The only game they’ve lost is the one they played against Tennessee, and with the exception of that double overtime game, they are averaging over 30 points and holding opponents to 17 or less. I think they’re pretty good. They win the award this week for Best News for the Vols.

Indiana State (0-4, 0-1 MVFC, NR)

• W1: Lost to E Illinois, 22-20.
• W2: Lost to Tennessee, 42-7.
• W3: Lost to Liberty, 42-41 on a blocked 23-yard field goal attempt as time expired.
• W4: Bye
• W5: Lost to Illinois State, 24-13.
• W6: North Dakota State
• W7: At South Dakota
• W8: S Illinois
• W9: At Missouri State
• W10: Youngstown State
• W11: W Illinois
• W12: At Northern Iowa

Winless.

Florida (3-1, 3-0 SEC, #21)

• W1: Lost to #11 Michigan, 33-17.
• W2: Canceled game with N Colorado.
• W3: Beat #25 Tennessee, 26-20.
• W4: Beat Kentucky, 28-27.
• W5: Beat Vanderbilt, 38-24.
• W6: LSU
• W7: Texas A&M
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs Georgia
• W10: At Missouri
• W11: At South Carolina
• W12: UAB
• W13: Florida State

Here they go again, 3-0 in the SEC. They did lose quarterback Luke Del Rio to a season-ending broken collarbone injury, but with the exception of Georgia, their schedule the rest of the way is softening up.

UMass (0-6, 0-0 IND, NR)

• W1: Lost to Hawaii, 38-35.
• W2: Lost to C. Carolina, 38-28.
• W3: Lost to Old Dominion, 17-7.
• W4: Lost to Temple, 29-21.
• W5: Lost to Tennessee, 17-13.
• W6: Lost to Ohio, 58-50.
• W7: Bye
• W8: At #21 USF
• W9: Ga Southern
• W10: Appalachian State
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Maine
• W13: At BYU

Also still winless.

Georgia (5-0, 2-0 SEC, #5)

• W1: Beat Appalachian State, 31-10. QB Jacob Eason went down, but freshman Jake Fromm looked good and took care of business.
• W2: Beat #24 Notre Dame, 20-19.
• W3: Beat Samford, 42-14.
• W4: Easily handled #17 Mississippi State, 31-3.
• W5: Demoralized Tennessee, 41-0.
• W6: At Vanderbilt
• W7: Missouri
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs. #22 Florida
• W10: South Carolina
• W11: At #13 Auburn
• W12: Kentucky
• W13: At Georgia Tech

The Vols’ future opponents

10/14/17: South Carolina (3-2, 1-2 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat NC State, 35-28.
• W2: Beat Missouri, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Kentucky, 23-13.
• W4: Beat LA Tech, 17-16.
• W5: Lost to Texas A&M, 24-17.
• W6: Arkansas
• W7: At #25 Tennessee
• W8: Bye
• W9: Vanderbilt
• W10: At #15 Georgia
• W11: #22 Florida
• W12: Wofford
• W13: #3 Clemson

Expectations for a Vols win: South Carolina quarterback Jake Bentley was sacked seven times but still threw for 256 yards and two touchdowns. I had this game at 75% last week, but the Vols currently have no answers on offense, so I’m calling this one 50/50.

10/21/17: Alabama (5-0, 2-0 SEC, #1)

• W1: Beat #3 Florida State, 24-7.
• W2: Beat Fresno State, 41-10.
• W3: Beat Colorado State, 41-23.
• W4: Beat Vanderbilt, 59-0.
• W5: Beat Ole Miss, 66-3.
• W6: At Texas A&M
• W7: Arkansas
• W8: #25 Tennessee
• W9: Bye
• W10: #12 LSU
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Mercer
• W13: At #13 Auburn

Expectations for a Vols win: Based on what they’ve done to Vanderbilt and Ole Miss the past two weeks, well, things don’t look very good at all. Last week, I moved this game from 10% to 5% and called it “never-never land.” Well, I’m going down the rabbit hole this week, to 1%.

10/28/17: Kentucky (4-1, 1-1 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Southern Miss, 24-17.
• W2: Best E Kentucky, 27-16.
• W3: Beat South Carolina, 23-13.
• W4: Lost to #20 Florida, 28-27.
• W5: Beat E Michigan, 24-20.
• W6: Missouri
• W7: Bye
• W8: At Mississippi State
• W9: #25 Tennessee
• W10: Ole Miss
• W11: At Vanderbilt
• W12: At #15 Georgia
• W13: #17 Lousiville

Expectations for a Vols win: I wouldn’t read too much into Kentucky struggling with Eastern Michigan a week after a heart-breaker to Florida. I’m moving this to 50% and hoping that the Vols find some answers in a hurry.

11/4/17: Southern Miss (2-2, 0-1 C-USA, NR)

• W1: Lost to Kentucky, 24-17.
• W2: Beat Southern, 45-0.
• W3: Beat UL Monroe, 28-17.
• W4: Bye
• W5: Lost to North Texas, 43-28.
• W6: UTSA
• W7: UTEP
• W8: At LA Tech
• W9: UAB
• W10: At #25 Tennessee
• W11: At Rice
• W12: Charlotte
• W13: At Marshall

Expectations for a Vols win: I was this close to calling this one a 50/50 game as well. But I’m going with 55%.

11/11/17: Missouri (1-3, 0-2 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Missouri State 72-43.
• W2: Lost to South Carolina, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Purdue, 35-3.
• W4: Lost to #15 Auburn, 51-14.
• W5: Bye
• W6: At Kentucky
• W7: At #15 Georgia
• W8: Idaho
• W9: At UConn
• W10: #22 Florida
• W11: #25 Tennessee
• W12: At Vanderbilt
• W13: At Arkansas

Expectations for a Vols win: Missouri didn’t play this week, but the Vols did. Moving this game to 50/50.

11/18/17: LSU (3-2, 0-1 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat BYU, 27-0.
• W2: Beat Chattanooga, 45-10.
• W3: Lost to Mississippi State, 37-7.
• W4: Beat Syracuse, 35-26.
• W5: Lost at home, during Homecoming, to Troy, 24-21.
• W6: At #22 Florida
• W7: #13 Auburn
• W8: At Ole Miss
• W9: Bye
• W10: At #1 Alabama
• W11: Arkansas
• W12: At #25 Tennessee
• W13: Texas A&M

Expectations for a Vols win: So, I guess things actually could be worse. Derrius Guice didn’t play, but Troy just won this thing outright, getting up early, and holding on late. LSU may be the one team that didn’t gain any ground on the Vols this week, and so they are Runners Up for the Good News for the Vols Award this week. I had this game at 25% to start the season, and I’d moved it to 45% since then. I’m calling it 50/50 now.

11/25/17: Vanderbilt (3-2, 0-2 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat MTSU, 28-6.
• W2: Beat Alabama A&M, 42-0.
• W3: Beat #19 Kansas State, 14-7.
• W4: Lost to #1 Alabama, 59-0.
• W5: Lost to #21 Florida, 38-24.
• W6: #15 Georgia
• W7: At Ole Miss
• W8: Bye
• W9: At South Carolina
• W10: W Kentucky
• W11: Kentucky
• W12: Missouri
• W13: At #25 Tennessee

Expectations for a Vols win: Hmm. Another 50/50 game? Okay, then.

All of that puts me at 6.06 wins, down from 7.39, but it also leaves me with only one game that I feel is better than a coin flip.

I’m interested in what y’all think. Here’s the form to submit your info: