There was never a chance for UTEP to beat Tennessee last weekend, so why were we so angry when the Vols dominated? It’s because it was ugly, and entering a crucial, pivotal tilt with Florida this weekend, we wanted to feel warm and fuzzy about the direction of the team.
Instead, we are all concerned. The Gators are coming to Knoxville a 4.5-point favorite, and — to be honest the way the series history has gone — you can’t feel good about that. Safe money rides with the Gators, and they’re getting healthy at the right time. They also manhandled a decent Colorado State team 48-10 a week ago. It wasn’t like the Gators’ struggling offense finally found something, though. It didn’t.
UF won that game with defense and special teams, and if they come to Neyland Stadium and beat the Vols on Saturday night, that’ll have to be the ingredients again. It’s happened too many times to think otherwise, but if you’re a Tennessee fan, you’ve got to believe in coach Jeremy Pruitt’s ability to motivate. You’ve got to hope that there have been some offensive tricks of coordinator Tyson Helton’s sleeve that he’s been saving for UF during this vanilla start to the season.
If you don’t hope, you’ve got nothing, right?
Quite frankly, if Tennessee doesn’t win this game, a bowl game is unlikely. The Vols have just one more definite win on the schedule, and that’s Charlotte. Lose this game, and you’re left with needing to win three out of four against South Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Missouri — four teams that look much improved from what they’ve been in the past. Because, right now, beating Alabama, Georgia or Auburn feels like a long shot.
This is as close to a must-win at this point of the season as you’re going to get. Let’s take a look at what needs to happen to make that happen.
KEYS
Get ahead early
It’s going to be raucous in Neyland Stadium on Saturday night for a game the Vols like to be played late in the day. The fans know how big this game is, and — quite frankly — it’s the biggest game for both programs in a long, long time.
Why?
It isn’t for the SEC East, most likely, but that doesn’t matter. This is two once-proud programs needing the victory for the feel-goods to come back around. They need it for bragging rights, for recruiting edges and, sadly, for bowl-eligibility. Both programs have the resources in place to get back and contend with Georgia, but neither are there.
If the Vols can get going early and keep the crowd in it in full-voice, that’s a massive advantage. Neyland has been electric a few times recently, and the Vols didn’t take advantage of it, but they did in 2016 when they scored 30 points late to run away with UF and end an 11-year drought. They need the same kind of firepower early. Take the Gators out of the game and keep the Vols faithful in it. That’s the biggest key.
“When Florida’s got the ball, I bet you they can’t hear with the way our fans are, because the fans are going to be ready for this game, I can tell you that,” Pruitt said Sunday on his coaches show.
Let’s make those words stand up.
Neutralize the edges
The Gators welcome back defensive leader Cece Jefferson, and between him and Jabari Zuniga, Tennessee’s tackles will have their hands full. The Vols haven’t been good on the edges yet this year, with Drew Richmond playing much like he has throughout his career and star Trey Smith struggling to get going after missing all of preseason conditioning and switching positions.
The Vols must have them playing at a high level. Jarrett Guarantano has done a good job so far this year getting the ball out on time and avoiding too many sacks, and he’s looked sharp doing it. But he must have his best game eluding pressure and finding the right guys in enough time to move UT down the field.
If Smith and Richmond don’t do their job, it’s going to make play-calling harder on Helton and play execution impossible for Guarantano. Remember the first few snaps of the West Virginia game, how nothing could even get going? Yeah, Florida’s pass rush is even better than that.
The Vols have to play by far their best game so far this season up front.
Quarterback coming-of-age
It’s hyperbole by now, but legends are forged in this game. Nobody is going to draw any paintings about a 6-6 team, but as we’ve mentioned so many times already, Guarantano — and a lot of his teammates — still have two years of eligibility after this.
Games like this are where programs begin. Pruitt’s program is in need of a kick-start, and Guarantano has looked at least so far like he’s the player to usher UT into that era. But this will be his most important test so far.
The redshirt sophomore from New Jersey can make every throw, and it is exciting how good he’s looked throwing the deep ball. That must continue as Tennessee tries to find Marquez Callaway and Josh Palmer downfield.
Guarantano needs to harness his emotions, play within himself and lead this Tennessee team to a win. He has the playmakers around him to do it, it’s just a matter of his line giving him the protection and him following through with the execution.
If Guarantano struggles, Tennessee will not win this football game.
Make Franks look like Franks
A year ago, Tennessee neutralized Feleipe Franks throughout much of the game, making him look cumbersome and uncomfortable. He simply hasn’t been a very good quarterback yet in his UF career, but this is what he is right now, and the Vols need to do everything they can to keep him from beating them.
The strong-armed quarterback’s Hail Mary stunned UT a year ago, so he’s had heroics against the Vols before. It can’t happen again. Dual-threat quarterbacks like Emory Jones don’t look like a threat to play, but UT needs to be on the lookout for any tricks Dan Mullen may have.
But they’ve got to pressure Franks more than they’ve done any quarterback yet this year and force him into quick decisions. If he has all day to sit back there, let his receivers get open and pick UT apart, it won’t be pretty for a young secondary.
Freshmen cornerbacks Bryce Thompson and Alontae Taylor need their biggest games, too.
Swingers
Two games ago against ETSU, the Vols got those game-changing plays with turnovers on defense. Though those were fewer and farther between against UTEP, an 81-yard scamper by Ty Chandler proved the Vols can still make some big plays.
But Florida isn’t ETSU or UTEP.
In the past, the Gators were the aggressor, making the big plays to beat the Vols in every game except for Tennessee’s ’16 win. The Vols have to do that on both sides of the ball, forcing UF’s awful offense into mistakes and getting some big-gainers on their own.
If they get this swinging plays in their favor — especially early — the Vols can ride that momentum to by far the biggest win of the Pruitt era.
***
I’ve gone back and forth with what I think about this game, but a night game at Neyland bodes well for the atmosphere, which bodes well for the Vols. We talked about hope, right? You’ve got to hope UT gets this one to keep its bowl hopes alive.
Tennessee 24, Florida 23
LOCKS
Oh, last week was bad. Thanks to Alabama and the Vanderbilt under, I didn’t get shut out, but — man, oh man — it wasn’t good. The Locks took a 2-5 hit on the week, dropping the season tally to 11-10. That’s the definition of mediocrity, and we must rebound, or you’ll quit following.
WHY ARE YOU BETTING, ANYWAY!? IT’S ILLEGAL!!
But seriously, yeah, it was an off week. We need some winners this week. Here they are, with minimal commentary.
- Oklahoma State (-12) over Texas Tech: Boise State, I believe, is one of the three best Group of Five teams in the country this year, and the Cowboys beat them 44-21. TTU can’t stop OSU, and while there may be eleventy-billion points scored here, OSU will have at least 13 more.
- Cincinnati (-7.5) over Ohio: Don’t look now, but the Fightin’ Luke Fickells are playing some good football. The Bearcats beat UCLA to open the season, shut out Miami Ohio and wore out Alabama A&M. They’re at least eight points better than the Bobcats.
- Baylor (-7.5) over Kansas: It’s a great story the Jayhawks have forced 12 turnovers to win back-to-back games. But the Bears are better. This is still Kansas, people.
- South Carolina (-2.5) over Vanderbilt: It helps the Commodores that they’re back at home, but that emotional loss to Notre Dame last week took a lot out of them. Carolina will be rusty after Hurricane Florence canceled their game against Marshall last week, but this line is way too small.
- Arizona at Oregon State under 75.5: While it looked like Khalil Tate and Kevin Sumlin finally clicked a little last week, this offense isn’t fixed. And Oregon State isn’t good enough offensively to throw up a ton of points. This will go way under.
- Wisconsin (-3.5) over Iowa: The BYU loss will sting for a long time, but I’ll take Paul Chryst in bounceback games every time.
- Arizona State (+17.5) over Washington: I still like the Sun Devils despite the 26-minute hiccup last week against San Diego State where they didn’t get a first down. It cost them that game, and now they’ve got to go on the road to the Pac-12 North favorites. The Huskies will win, but they are far from explosive, and this game will be closer than you think.
Let’s go rebound! And Go Vols!
