It’s time to see if coach Jeremy Pruitt can keep this ball rolling.
We’ve seen that the first-year Tennessee coach can recruit, and we’ve seen that he can develop. But can he get his Vols to pull off their third big upset of the year against a team that is arguably the worst matchup for them since Alabama? That’s a major question mark, and while 7-5 is still a possibility for this team, so is 5-7. We all need to remember that.
Simply put: The Missouri Tigers are at least the fourth-best team the Vols will play this season. It’s a toss-up to me whether they’re as good as West Virginia, but I’m giving the Mountaineers the (slight) nod there based on their body of work, though WVU’s record would be nowhere near what it is had it played in the SEC.
This Mizzou team is 6-4 and really should be 8-2 with losses to Alabama and Georgia. A bad South Carolina team beat them in Columbia, S.C., in a driving rain, and Kentucky got an extra down on a garbage call and took advantage with a walk-off win.
Yep, this team is close to flipping places with the Wildcats as the SEC’s Cinderella story of the year, and it’s going to be a monumental task for Tennessee to pull off. It’s one the Vols are up to, though. Here’s why…
KEYS
Make Lock beat you
You read that correctly.
Yes, Missouri has the second-best quarterback in the SEC with Drew Lock, but if you’re the Vols, you want the Tigers feeling like they’ve got to throw it all over the field to win. Mizzou has two really good, underrated running backs in Damarea Crockett and Larry Rountree III, and if they’re having success churning out yards, Mizzou is going to be impossible to stop.
The Vols did a great job up the middle of the field against Kentucky against Benny Snell and Co., and they’ve got to keep it up against a strong, veteran offensive line. Pruitt said this week the first key is going to be stopping Mizzou’s run, and he’s absolutely right to approach the game that way.
Run it up
Speaking of running, the Vols must be able to do it successfully. The Tigers are fifth in the conference in rush defense, so as bad as they’ve been on that side of the ball, teams aren’t lighting up the rushing statistics column against them.
The Vols are determined to run it, and with a healthy Ty Chandler in the lineup, they’re finding success doing so recently. This UT offense needs to keep the football away from Drew Lock and the Tigers, and the only way to do that is to sustain drives. Chandler, Jordan and others have to find space, and this Vols offensive line must have its best game of the season.
This is a tall task for Tyson Helton’s offense just because there’s going to be so much pressure on it to score.
Deep shots
Missouri’s secondary is terrible. They’ve had so many issues all season no matter who they play out there, and if there’s one place where UT has a distinct advantage, it’s the Vols tall, talented receivers against the Tigers struggling DBs.
This is one of those games where quarterback Jarrett Guarantano should be expected to take a major leap forward. He played very well against Kentucky, and he needs to build on that momentum and expand his game against Mizzou. Tennessee needs to be an offensive aggressor, taking its downfield shots and hitting a few. This is a big game for the maturation of Guarantano and the development of this offense.
It feels like a game where the Vols can have some big plays.
Start me up
Against Kentucky, Tennessee jumped in front early and kept the pressure on throughout. Missouri is a different animal because of its ability to stretch the field vertically, but that doesn’t change the Vols’ approach.
Basically, a key all season has been for UT to get out to a strong start. When it does, the Vols stand a great chance of winning. When they struggle early, they don’t do a good job coming back. In a game that’s going to feature a lot of points, the Vols need to prove right away they’ve got their own ammunition. An early touchdown and a lead would be big.
It also would help UT set the tone, be the pressure-pusher and believe it can come away with the win.
Third-down D
Drew Lock hasn’t enjoyed his greatest statistical season, but he’s grown in his ability to lead an offense under offensive coordinator Derek Dooley. The duo of dangerous running backs are important pieces to the puzzle, too.
That’s why it’s Alabama, then Georgia, then Missouri in third-down conversions in the league. The Tigers are staying on the field offensively, converting 45.5 percent of the time. That’s a great clip, and UT’s defense has to stop that. The Vols haven’t done well in third-down defense this year, currently 10th in the league. But they’ve been much better in the past couple of games.
That is a trend that must continue.
Harass Lock
Last weekend, the re-emergence of outside linebacker Darrell Taylor was massive for the Vols. The junior had three sacks earlier this season against Georgia, and he added four more last weekend against UK, garnering national defensive player of the week honors.
The rest of the year, though, Taylor has zero sacks. That must change.
UT needs the Taylor of last week to show out, and they could use some pressure from guys like Kyle Phillips, DeAndre Johnson and perhaps Kivon Bennett, too. Even if UT needs corner and safety blitzes, they’ve got to get in Lock’s face. This honestly may be the biggest key of the game.
If Lock has all day to throw, he’ll pick apart UT’s young secondary, no matter how good it is. The Vols have to make things difficult on him.
Prediction
So, what’s all this mean? There are a lot of things that must happen for the Vols to win the game. They’re going against a strong offense that is capable of blowing them off their home field, and the only way to combat that is to hit them head-on and throw some punches of their own.
UT’s defense is getting better. It’s secondary is getting better, and if freshman Trevon Flowers returns, it’s only going to improve again this week. The offense did some really good things against Kentucky, and the momentum must continue.
But this is a program that looks and feels like it’s on the cusp of turning a corner. Last week, Mizzou didn’t scare anybody in a 33-28 win over Vanderbilt, and you wonder which team will show up; that one or the one that dominated Florida?
UT playing at Neyland Stadium with a ton to play for, I believe, is going to be the difference in this one in a close one. This will be a vital win for the Vols.
Vols win 33-30
LOCKS
We were one (well, two) stupid LSU running back decision away from going 5-2 again. But, thanks to Nick Brossette sliding down not once but TWICE inside the 10-yard line rather than score a late stat-padding touchdown, the Tigers failed to cover against Arkansas, dropping us to 4-3.
That’s not really fair, but that’s gambling. That’s why it doesn’t really pay to do it for real. There are big buildings and bright lights in Vegas for reason, right? Even so, we were over .500 for the fourth straight week, so … MAKING MONEY! We’re 36-34 for the year, and hopefully we can improve on that this week.
The final tally last week was West Virginia easily covering 11.5 over TCU, Ohio State’s late rally to cruise past the 4-point line over Michigan State, MTSU narrowly covering the 13.5 spread against UTEP winning by 16, and Wazzu handling Colorado. That’s a good thing because we picked Purdue to beat Minnesota and the Gophers won 41-10. We also thought Oregon would beat Utah outright, and that didn’t happen. The LSU debacle despite coach Ed Orgeron continually trying to score dropped us to 4-3. Here are this week’s picks.
- Nebraska +1.5 over Michigan State: This is a bit of a gamble, I know, but I believe in what Scott Frost is building in Lincoln, and I think Adrian Martinez is the kind of quarterback who can give the Spartans issue. Take the upset.
- Syracuse +10 over Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish have surprised all season, but this Syracuse team has scored 50-plus points in five games and is in the nation’s top five in turnover differential. This is the best team ND has played since Michigan, and the Orange will cover (at least).
- Texas Tech -6.5 over Kansas State: The Red Raiders score a ton of points, and while they also give up a ton, the Wildcats can’t hang offensively. I don’t see any scenario where this fails to be a double-digit win.
- Tennessee +6 over Missouri: For reasons stated above, the Vols not only cover but win outright.
- West Virginia -5 over Oklahoma State: This is not enough points. There is no way the Cowboys will stop the Mountaineers, and though there will be plenty of points scored on both sides, I’m going with the best defense.
- Boston College -1.5 over Florida State: What? No way. The Seminoles are awful. Eagles roll.
- Ole Miss +3 over Vanderbilt: The Commodores have crashed the past two seasons despite beating the Vols each of those years. Ole Miss has a great offense, and much like in the Texas Tech game above, VU just can’t score enough to win this one. It’ll be similar to the Mizzou game.
