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What does Kentucky do well (and not so well)?

Kentucky Wildcats at Tennessee Volunteers

Over the course of the last three games, we’ve seen the Vols go up against two of the nation’s best teams, and the Vols have the statistical bruises to prove it. This week, Tennessee gets a bit of a reprieve, as they trade elite opponents for a merely good one. Here’s what the NCAA statistics say the Kentucky Wildcats do well, what they don’t do well, and what it all might mean for Tennessee when they meet up with them Saturday night in Lexington.

National Unit Rankings

Stat KY
Red Zone Offense 29
Passes Had Intercepted 30
4th Down Conversion Pct 44
Completion Percentage 55
Team Passing Efficiency 59
3rd Down Conversion Pct 63
Passing Yards per Completion 68
Passing Offense 85
Scoring Offense 92
Sacks Allowed 94
Rushing Offense 96
First Downs Offense 104
Tackles for Loss Allowed 104
Total Offense 112

Offensive observations. Honestly, I’m kind of surprised to learn that Kentucky’s total offense is ranked 112th in the nation. They’re vulnerable to sacks, they don’t gain a lot of yards either on the ground or through the air. Somehow, they seem to be good in the red zone, though, and they’re fairly safe with the ball in the air. Overall, this does not look like a particularly frightening offense.

Stat KY
Rushing Defense 26
First Downs Defense 56
Scoring Defense 59
Passes Intercepted 62
Total Defense 70
3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense 71
Red Zone Defense 82
Team Passing Efficiency Defense 82
Team Sacks 84
4th Down Conversion Pct Defense 107
Passing Yards Allowed 113
Team Tackles for Loss 117

Defensive observations. Well, this looks better than last week. Kentucky is fairly stout against the run, but other than that, they’re middle-of-the-road to just plain bad. Honestly, it looks like the opportunity for the Vols here is in the passing game, if only they can manage a passing attack.

Stat KY
Blocked Kicks Allowed 1
Blocked Punts Allowed 1
Blocked Kicks 4
Punt Returns 5
Blocked Punts 8
Net Punting 24
Kickoff Returns 28
Punt Return Defense 35
Kickoff Return Defense 64
Stat KY
Fumbles Lost 19
Fumbles Recovered 20
Turnover Margin 21
Turnovers Lost 21
Fewest Penalty Yards 24
Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game 25
Turnovers Gained 34
Fewest Penalties 39
Fewest Penalties Per Game 44

Special teams, Turnovers, and Penalties observations. Kentucky is extremely good on special teams and very good in the discipline categories of penalties and turnovers. They’re good returning kicks and punts and at covering both punts and kicks. And they do not give you things like free yards from penalties or fumbles.

 

Kentucky Players to Watch

Offense

Senior quarterback Stephen Johnson is currently 112-of-183 for 1,355 yards and nine touchdowns with four interceptions. He’s also a threat to run, as he’s carried the ball 53 times for another 198 yards and two rushing touchdowns. His partner in the backfield is sophomore running back Benny Snell, who’s rushed 133 times for 541 yards and six touchdowns. The main target in the passing game is senior wide receiver Garrett Johnson, who’s caught 32 passes for 369 yards and two touchdowns.

Defense

On defense, Kentucky’s tackles are pretty evenly distributed among junior defensive back Mike Edwards (54), senior linebacker Courtney Love (51), and junior defensive back Darius West (49). Junior linebacker Josh Allen leads the team in sacks with 6.5 and tackles for loss. Edwards, in addition to leading the team in tackles, also leads the team in passes defended (8) and interceptions (3).

Special Teams

Senior kicker Austin MacGinnis is 13-of-18 on field goals and is perfect on attempts of 39 yards and shorter. He’s 3-of-5 between 40-49 and 2-of-5 over 50. Only 17 of his 39 kickoffs are touchbacks, so there’s opportunity on kickoff returns there for the Vols.

The Gameplan

Tennessee should still be able to out-talent Kentucky. The Vols defense should be able to lock down Kentucky’s fairly feeble rushing attack, make them one-dimensional, and then turn up the heat with pressure and sacks.

On offense, we may find rushing yards hard to come by once again this week, but there are opportunities in the passing game if only Jarrett Guarantano and the receivers can find something that works. They shouldn’t have to worry too much about pressure in the backfield, so maybe that’s all they need to finally find some offensive magic. And if the passing game gets rolling, maybe that opens things up for John Kelly and the run game.

But the Vols are starting at a disadvantage with their tendency to give away gifts in penalties, as we can’t count on Kentucky returning the favor.

Bottom line, Tennessee’s defense should be able to do its part to win the game, and the offense will have opportunities through the air. Whether they can finally take advantage of opportunities, though, well, that’s the question.