The GRT Expected Win Total Machine: Post-Chattanooga

The Vols beat an FCS team 45-0 this past Saturday, which doesn’t really mean much with the SEC slate looming. But they beat an FCS team 45-0 this past Saturday, which means they did what they were supposed to do.

The first two weeks of the season, the Vols didn’t do what they were supposed to do, so living up to expectations is an improvement. Does it mean we can circle back to the preseason expectations we had for this team for the remaining games of the season? Probably not. Not yet, anyway. But it does mean that we can probably adjust them upward just a wee bit from where they were last week.

We learned more about some of the Vols’ future opponents this weekend, too. Alabama and Georgia were about what we expected. Kentucky and South Carolina perhaps better than expected. And Florida and Mississippi State look perhaps a little less intimidating today than they did this time last week.

Bottom line, I’m adjusting my expectations for the Vols upward just a bit, and I’m shuffling and readjusting some of the remaining opponents.

With those adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 3.65. Woo. A good showing against the Gators will do wonders for these numbers.

• Preseason: 6.55
• After Week 0: 6.6
• After Week 1: 2.87
• After Week 2: 2.37
• After Week 3: 3.65

Details: I have Alabama and Georgia at 5%. In my second tier, I have Florida and South Carolina both at 25%, and in my third tier, I have both Kentucky and Missouri at 30%. Mississippi State and Vanderbilt are inching toward tossups, but aren’t there yet, as I have them both at 40%. I have UAB at 65%.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 1-2 (0-0), 3rd in the SEC East

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 2-1 (0-0), 1st in the Sun Belt East

So much for the “Maybe these guys are better than we think” talk.

BYU Cougars

Current record: 2-1 (0-0)

But wait, maybe these guys are, in fact, better than we thought. Beating a ranked team has to count for something, right?

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 1-2 (0-0), 4th in the Southern Conference

The Vols’ future opponents

Florida Gators

Current record: 3-0 (1-0), 1st in the SEC East

Kentucky had this game won, at least twice. They looked like the better team most of the game until they lost the lead late. And then they still had a chance to hit the go-ahead field goal with about a minute remaining. This was in character for Kentucky and in character for Florida, which I hate to say because if we see an in-character game between Tennessee and Florida this weekend, we’re in for another new and novel heartbreak. The Vols need to break character.

Also, Gators quarterback Feleipe Franks left the game on a cart with an air cast and is expected to miss the rest of the season. But it was backup QB Kyle Trask who won that game for Florida. We might have preferred to see Franks.

Bottom line, Kentucky looks better than I thought, but Florida looks worse than I thought.

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 3-0 (1-0), 1st in the SEC East

Ho-hum. Nothing to see here.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 2-1 (0-0), 3rd in the SEC West

The video recap of this one suggests that Mississippi State is dangerous, both to others and to itself. They pulled their starting quarterback after a couple of picks and gave up a 100-yard kickoff return right after finally getting a go-ahead touchdown. Chalk this one up more to mistakes than overall aptitude.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 3-0 (1-0), 1st in the SEC West

Forget the final score here for a second. The Gamecocks made this look like a real contest for much of the game, sometimes looking like world-beaters themselves and sometimes making Alabama look vulnerable. Yeah, Bama ultimately did what Bama ultimately does, so there’s not much change in attitude about them, but South Carolina looks better than I thought they would, especially after losing Jake Bentley.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 1-2 (0-1), 5th in the SEC East

See above.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 2-0 (0-0), 1st in C-USA West

Off this week.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-1 (0-1), 5th in the SEC East

See the bit on Florida above. The Kentucky-Florida game was much closer than the score suggested. The Wildcats really should have won and looked like the better team most of the night. Something clicked off when Kyle Trask took over for Florida.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 2-1 (0-0), 3rd in the SEC East

Rushing touchdown. Receiving touchdown. Both a punt return and a kickoff for a touchdown. Defense pitched a shutout. Fine day, even considering the opposition.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-2 (0-1), 5th in the SEC East

The Commodores were off this week.

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?