Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.
The GRT Expected Win Total Machine
Notice: JavaScript is required for this content.My assessment
Regarding the Vols’ past opponents: It’s a bit of a mixed bag, but most of the Vols’ prior opponents are looking better than we previously thought. Georgia State and Chattanooga are good for their classification (although we still should not have lost to the Panthers). Florida’s looking good. Georgia has looked a little vulnerable the last couple of weeks, but they’re still obviously good. BYU just had another good win, although, like the Vols, they’re kind of all over the board. Mississippi State, who knows?
As for the Vols themselves, we’ve sniffed some hints over the past couple of weeks that they’re actually improving at a pretty good pace after a slow start, and this past weekend’s game against the Alabama Crimson Tide turned those hints into actual probative evidence that could win an argument. They’re getting better. There are still open questions, namely how much better are they, and how much will that improvement ebb and flow?
As for Tennessee’s future opponents, South Carolina got beat this week by Florida but looked good losing (and beat Georgia last week), and Georgia beat Kentucky but looked bad winning. Missouri lost to Vanderbilt, which probably means only that Missouri can lose to a bad team and Vanderbilt can beat a good team. UAB still scares me as a sleeper.
With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 4.7. That’s up from last week, but not as much as I thought it would be. It’s hard to get toss-ups to add up to as many wins as you’d like. I’m basically back to my preseason expectations, except that Georgia State and BYU went the wrong way.
Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:
- Preseason: 6.55
- After Week 0: 6.6
- After Week 1: 2.87
- After Week 2: 2.37
- After Week 3: 3.65
- After Week 4: 2.9
- After Week 5: 3.25
- After Week 6: 3.85
- After Week 7: 4.4
- After Week 8: 4.7
Details: I now have South Carolina and Missouri both at 45% and Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and UAB at 60%.
Here’s a table with my expectations this week:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 2-5 (1-2), 5th in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to Georgia State, 30-38 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Lost to BYU, 29-26 2OT |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Chattanooga, 45-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ No. 9 Florida, 34-3 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 43-14 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Mississippi State, 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost @ 1 Alabama, 35-13 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat South Carolina, 41-21 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat UAB, 30-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Kentucky, 17-13 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Missouri, 24-20 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs Vanderbilt |
The Vols’ past opponents
Georgia State Panthers
Current record: 5-2 (2-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Tennessee, 38-30 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Furman, 48-42 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to Western Michigan, 57-10 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ Texas State, 37-34 3OT |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Arkansas State, 52-38 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Coastal Carolina, 31-21 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Army, 28-21 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat Troy, 52-33 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ UL Monroe, 45-31 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to No. 25 Appalachian State, 56-27 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat South Alabama, 28-15 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ Georgia Southern |
As I said last week, 2019 Georgia State isn’t the 2-10 Sun Belt team it was from 2018. They’re now 5-2.
BYU Cougars
Current record: 3-4 (0-0)
| Thu, Aug 29 | Lost to No. 14 Utah, 12-30 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Tennessee, 29-26 2OT |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat No. 24 USC, 30-27 OT |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost to No. 22 Washington, 45-19 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ Toledo, 28-21 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost @ South Florida, 27-23 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat No. 14 Boise State, 28-25 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat Utah State, 42-14 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Liberty, 31-24 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Idaho State, 42-10 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat UMass, 56-24 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ San Diego State |
The Cougars notched another good win this weekend by upsetting No. 14 Boise State. You’ll recall that earlier in the season, they beat a then-ranked USC team. Sure, they’ve also lost to Toledo and South Florida, but they’ve shown they can beat decent-to-good teams, and doing so makes the Vols’ loss to them earlier this season look a little less bad.
Chattanooga Mocs
Current record: 4-3 (3-0), 1st in the Southern Conference
| Thu, Aug 29 | Beat Eastern Illinois, 24-10 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Lost to Jacksonville State, 41-20 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost at Tennessee, 45-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost to James Madison, 37-14 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Western Carolina, 60-36 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Mercer, 34-17 |
| Thu, Oct 17 | Beat East Tennessee State, 16-13 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Wofford, 35-34 OT |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost to Furman, 35-20 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Samford, 35-27 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat The Citadel, 34-33 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Lost to VMI, 31-24 |
Chattanooga is still an FCS team, but they’re first in their conference, so that’s something.
Florida Gators
Current record: 7-1 (4-1), 1st in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 24 | Beat Miami, 24-20 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat UT Martin, 45-0 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Kentucky, 29-21 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat Tennessee, 34-3 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Towson, 38-0 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat No. 7 Auburn, 24-13 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost @ No. 5 LSU, 42-28 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat South Carolina, 38-27 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost to No. 8 Georgia, 24-17 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Vanderbilt, 56-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Missouri, 23-6 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs Florida State |
I don’t know about you, but watching much of this weekend’s Florida-South Carolina game made me feel better about the loss to the Gators and worse about the prospects against the Gamecocks this week. (Although the Vols made up for that latter feeling with their later effort against the Tide.)
Georgia Bulldogs
Current record: 6-1 (3-1), 2nd in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Vanderbilt, 30-6 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Murray State, 63-17 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Arkansas State, 55-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat No. 7 Notre Dame, 23-17 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Tennessee, 43-14 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost to South Carolina, 20-17 2OT |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Kentucky, 21-0 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat No. 6 Florida, 24-17 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Beat Missouri, 27-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat No. 12 Auburn, 21-14 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Texas A&M, 19-13 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ Georgia Tech |
This weekend’s Georgia-Kentucky game was tied 0-0 at the half, and the Bulldogs really didn’t look very good all game. It’s hard to tell how much that was them and how much was Kentucky, so I’m kind of splitting the difference and feeling worse about the loss to Georgia and also slightly more wary about the upcoming game against Kentucky.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Current record: 3-4 (1-3), 6th in the SEC West
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Louisiana, 38-28 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Southern Mississippi, 38-15 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to Kansas State, 31-24 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat Kentucky, 28-13 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ No. 7 Auburn, 56-23 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost @ Tennessee, 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to No. 2 LSU |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Texas A&M, 49-30 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat Arkansas, 54-24 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to No. 5 Alabama, 38-7 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Abilene Christian, 45-7 |
| Thu, Nov 28 | vs Ole Miss |
There’s no shame in losing 36-13 to the No. 2 team in the country, so I’m deferring judgment on the Bulldogs for now.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 7-0 (4-0), 1st in the SEC West
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Duke, 42-3 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat New Mexico State, 62-10 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat South Carolina, 47-23 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat Southern Miss, 49-7 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Ole Miss, 59-31 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat No. 24 Texas A&M, 47-28 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Tennessee, 35-13 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat Arkansas, 48-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost to No. 2 LSU, 46-41 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Mississippi State, 38-7 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Western Carolina, 66-3 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ No. 11 Auburn |
The Tennessee-Alabama game was closer than everyone expected it to be, but again, it’s difficult to tell how much of that is on Alabama and how much credit to give an improving Vols squad. I think it’s safe to say that Alabama isn’t the same team without Tua, though.
The Vols’ future opponents
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 3-4 (2-3), 4th in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to North Carolina, 24-20 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Charleston Southern, 72-10 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to No. 2 Alabama, 47-23 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ Missouri, 34-14 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Kentucky, 24-7 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat No. 3 Georgia, 20-17 2OT |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to No. 9 Florida, 38-27 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Tennessee, 41-21 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Beat Vanderbilt, 24-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost to Appalachian State, 20-15 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost @ Texas A&M, 30-6 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs 4 Clemson |
See above. The Gamecocks are much better than their record suggests. North Carolina took them (and many others) by surprise, then they played a full-strength Alabama team tough and beat No. 3 Georgia. Plus, that Florida game was closer than the score makes it look. They’re going to be tough, even for an improving Vols team.
UAB Blazers
Current record: 6-1 (3-1), 2nd in C-USA West
| Thu, Aug 29 | Beat Alabama State, 24-19 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Akron, 31-20 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat South Alabama, 35-3 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ Western Kentucky, 20-13 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Rice, 35-20 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat UTSA, 33-14 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat Old Dominion, 38-14 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost @ Tennessee, 30-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ Southern Miss, 37-2 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat UTEP, 37-10 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat Louisiana Tech, 20-14 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ North Texas |
I sounded the alarm on the UAB Blazers last week, and I’m still ringing the bell this week. We’re at serious risk of overlooking these guys.
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 3-4 (1-4), 7th in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Beat Toledo, 38-24 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat Eastern Michigan, 38-17 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Lost to No. 8 Florida, 29-21 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost @ Mississippi State, 28-13 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Arkansas, 24-20 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to No. 10 Georgia, 21-0 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Beat Missouri, 29-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost to Tennessee, 17-13 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Beat Vanderbilt, 38-14 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat UT Martin, 50-7 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | vs Louisville |
See above. They played Georgia tough for most of the game. Plus, they’re going to get a much-needed rest the week before they take on the Vols.
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 5-2 (2-1), 3rd in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to Wyoming, 37-31 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Beat West Virginia, 38-7 |
| Sat, Sep 14 | Beat Southeast Missouri State, 50-0 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Beat South Carolina, 34-14 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Beat Troy, 42-10 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Beat Ole Miss, 38-27 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Lost to Vanderbilt, 21-14 |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Lost @ Kentucky, 29-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ No. 6 Georgia, 27-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to No. 11 Florida, 23-6 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Lost to Tennessee, 24-20 |
| Fri, Nov 29 | @ Arkansas |
Wait, what? Vanderbilt lost to UNLV last week and beat a ranked and rolling Missouri team this week? The Tigers are an enigma. You could conclude that they’re good against teams without a decent defense, but they did also beat South Carolina, so you know. Whatever the case, the new data this week suggests a better opportunity for the Vols than we thought last week.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 2-5 (1-3), 5th in the SEC East
| Sat, Aug 31 | Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 30-6 |
| Sat, Sep 7 | Lost to Purdue, 42-24 |
| Sat, Sep 21 | Lost to No. 4 LSU, 66-38 |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Beat Northern Illinois, 24-18 |
| Sat, Oct 5 | Lost to Ole Miss, 31-6 |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Lost to UNLV, 34-10 |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Beat No. 22 Missouri, 21-14 |
| Sat, Nov 2 | Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7 |
| Sat, Nov 9 | Lost @ No. 10 Florida, 56-0 |
| Sat, Nov 16 | Lost to Kentucky, 38-14 |
| Sat, Nov 23 | Beat ETSU, 38-0 |
| Sat, Nov 30 | @ Tennessee |
See above. Even a reeling Vandy can get you if you don’t take them seriously.
What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?