UPDATE: The Tennessee-Texas A&M game has been postponed until December 12. We’ll leave this here for contemplation but re-run the numbers the week before the game.
Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Texas A&M Aggies. The Vols better be up for a challenge this weekend, as the Aggies appear to have advantages all over the place.
On offense, Tennessee is going to need to make the most of first downs to stay out of third-and-long situations, and they’ll likely need to do it with a safe passing game, as rushing yards may be hard to come by.
On defense, the team is going to have its hands full against a very good passing-oriented offensive attack that is lethal on third down and particularly well-suited to have a good day against a Tennessee defense struggling mightily on third down. Expect the Vols to roll out a bend-and-hope-we-don’t-also-break game plan, utilizing nickel and dime packages most of the day and being thrifty about sending extra rushers against an offensive line good at preventing sacks.
When the Vols have the ball
Where’s the opportunity?
If only we can get to fourth down! 🙂
Seriously, though, the only real opportunity looks to be on first downs. Team passing efficiency is basically a push as well, but most everything else leans toward the Aggies.
Where’s the danger?
Apart from A&M basically just being better on defense than the Vols are on offense, the biggest challenges are going to be running the ball, third downs (gulp), and not throwing interceptions.
Gameplan for the Vols on offense
Make the most of first downs. Pass the ball, but don’t get reckless through the air, and stay out of third-and-long situations (gulp).
Vols on defense
Where’s the danger?
Tennessee’s defense is stronger than its offense, but it’s not as strong as A&M’s offense, which appears to have an advantage everywhere you look. The biggest monster here? Third downs, where the Aggies are No. 2 in the nation and will be going against a defense that ranks No. 103rd in that category. Generally speaking, the strength of A&M’s offense is its passing attack.
Where’s the opportunity?
If only we can get them to fourth down! 🙂
As I said above, the Aggies’ offense appears to have every advantage. The smallest of those advantages? Interceptions, rushing.
Gameplan for the Vols on defense
Coach up that secondary and that defensive line. Play nickel or dime. Get as much pressure on the quarterback as you can, but be selective on blitzes, because they’re really good at not allowing sacks, so sending extra guys may be wasted effort. Use those guys to keep all receivers in front of you. This may be a bend-don’t-break Saturday.
Special teams
The Vols are pretty good on special teams, but so are the Aggies, mostly. Perhaps Tennessee can pick up some extra yards on kickoff returns.
The kickers appear about equal, with Seth Small 4-5 on the season and Brent Cimaglia 4-6, but with a couple of longer kicks on his resume so far.
Turnovers and penalties
Both Tennessee and Texas A&M are about as likely to commit penalties. A&M appears to be a little less turnover-prone. There could be some hidden yards and opportunities if the Vols are able to limit penalties, and turnovers could decide the game if they start bouncing the Vols’ way.
