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Forecasting win probabilities for the Vols after UMass

Joel Hollingsworth
Tennessee Volunteers fans

Any other week, the results we saw from other teams would have provided some pretty good news for Vols fans interested in how the rest of the games on the schedule are shaping up, but a lackluster performance by the Vols against UMass undoes almost all of that and negatively impacts our win probability expectations downward across the board.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Basically, the entire thing shifted into more difficult territory than it had been last week. That can change after a better showing this week against Georgia, but man, that 17-13 win at a game I had slotted at the 99% line sure is making me nervous.

The Vols after UMass

Tennessee was roughly a 28-point favorite over UMass this past Saturday, an 0-4 team that had not even played anyone of merit so far, but barely eked out a 17-13 lethargic win. It was almost certainly a hangover game, one where the team was still reeling from that stomach-churning loss to hated rival Florida, looking ahead to a big game against Georgia the following week, and thinking that it could sleepwalk through the current week to a win over UMass. But you can’t ignore that it happened, either, and let’s face it: This past Saturday, the Vols looked like they could lose to almost anyone.

Adding that to the season’s other data points — a defense that got rolled by Georgia Tech until the final play, an only-decent game against Indiana State, a loss that shouldn’t have been against Florida — and you likely don’t have a lot of confidence in the Vols at this point in the season. It’s not that the team couldn’t gain its footing and look good the rest of the way; they absolutely could. But we don’t have any real evidence yet to suggest that they will.

For those reasons, I feel significantly less confident in the Vols’ prospects the rest of the season. I’m still hopeful they can get it turned around, but confidence in them actually doing it has taken a hit.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia Tech (2-1, 1-0 ACC, NR)

KirVonte Benson ran for 196 yards and two touchdowns, and TaQuon Marshall added 112 yards and another two touchdowns as the Yellow Jackets overwhelmed Pitt. Georgia Tech now has the nation’s best rushing offense, averaging 393.7 yards per game. That average is something to watch, as it’s definitely aided by the 535 Tennessee gave them, which looked more like the Vols’ problem than GT’s strength when Jacksonville State allowed only 210. But GT also got 436 against Pitt. We’ll see how they do this week against North Carolina and then Miami the following week.

Indiana State (0-3, 0-0 MVFC, NR)

Florida (2-1, 2-0 SEC, #24)

As bad as Tennessee fans felt after the Vols gifted their game to Florida, Kentucky fans must feel even worse after blowing their chance at finally throwing off 30 years of futility. The Wildcats had the Gators beat 27-21 with less than a minute to play, but they not only left a receiver completely uncovered inside the 10-yard line, his defender was actually running off the field. Kentucky still had a chance after that but then committed a holding penalty while in field goal range on the last play before having to kick a field goal, which ended up being a 56-yard attempt that was just short. And now Florida is 2-0 in SEC games their opponents should have won and, consequently, 2-0 in the SEC. Credit to those guys for somehow getting it done in both of those games, but Jim McElwain has looked after each of the past two games like he feels almost guilty for winning each of them.

9/23/17: UMass (0-5, 0-0 IND, NR)

We’ve been over this. Apparently, the game was even unworthy of a recap from ESPN. Sounds about right.

The Vols’ future opponents

9/30/17: Georgia (4-0, 1-0 SEC, #7)

Expectations for a Vols win: Honestly, these guys looked good. Like maybe-they-could-compete-with-Alabama good. Not good news for a Vols team that struggled mightily against UMass. I had this game at 45% to begin the season, and I lowered it to 40% since then. After what happened with them and with the Vols this past weekend, I’m moving it all the way down to 20%. I don’t feel good about it at all. Maybe they’ll mismanage the quarterback situation with Jacob Eason getting healthy again, but other than that, I don’t see any vulnerability here.

PREDICTIONS – GEORGIA
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
45 45 40 40 20

10/14/17: South Carolina (3-1, 1-1 SEC, NR)

Expectations for a Vols win: Not only did South Carolina only barely beat Louisiana Tech, they needed two huge plays with time winding down and a 31-yard field goal with seven seconds left from a kicker who’d missed his last four to get the win. This is a different team without Deebo Samuel. I moved the game to 75% last week. I’d increase that even more if Tennessee didn’t also lay an egg in a win. As it is, I’m keeping it at 75%.

PREDICTIONS – SOUTH CAROLINA
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
69 69 60 75 75

10/21/17: Alabama (4-0, 1-0 SEC, #1)

Expectations for a Vols win: Nick Saban reportedly asked his guys to prove that they knew how to dominate an opponent for a full 60 minutes prior to playing this game. I think they passed. I’ve had the Tennessee-Vandy game at 10% all season, but now I’m changing it to 5%, which is practically never-never land for me, a place I don’t generally spend much time. I don’t like it there; it’s grey and dreary and all they have to eat is plain white toast. I hope to escape next week.

PREDICTIONS – ALABAMA
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
10 10 10 10 5

10/28/17: Kentucky (3-1, 1-1 SEC, NR)

Expectations for a Vols win: See the game recap from the Florida section above. On one hand, the Wildcats nearly beat Florida, so they’re looking good enough to beat Tennessee, sure. On the other hand, they appear to have that problem of getting over mental hurdles against certain teams (we can relate), and fortunately, that problem tends to manifest itself against the Vols, too, that Dooley game I’ve repressed notwithstanding. I’m wavering, but I’m going to move this game from 65% to 55%.

PREDICTIONS – KENTUCKY
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
65 65 70 65 55

11/4/17: Southern Miss (2-1, 0-0 C-USA, NR)

Expectations for a Vols win: Southern Miss didn’t play this week, but the Vols did. I had this game at 80% last week, and this week I’m moving it to 70%.

PREDICTIONS – SOUTHERN MISS
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
90 85 80 80 70

11/11/17: Missouri (1-3, 0-2 SEC, NR)

Expectations for a Vols win: If there’s one team that sort of out-did Tennessee this week in the egg-laying department, it’s Missouri. I’m going to call that a push and leave the game right where it is at 70%.

PREDICTIONS – MISSOURI
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
70 65 70 70 70

11/18/17: LSU (3-1, 0-1 SEC, #25)

Expectations for a Vols win: Any other week, LSU looking bad against Syracuse would have been cause to make a significant adjustment. Not this week. Keeping the game at 45%.

PREDICTIONS – LSU
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
25 25 25 45 45

11/25/17: Vanderbilt (3-1, 0-1 SEC, NR)

Expectations for a Vols win: Vanderbilt, I feel your pain. No matter how much progress you’ve made, it’s sometimes difficult to see when playing in the SEC. Losing 59-0 to an Alabama team that Nick Saban remembered to say “Sic ‘Em” to does not mean that you’re not much better than you have been the past few seasons. I’m going to keep this one at 55% for now.

PREDICTIONS – VANDERBILT
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
72 72 65 55 55

All of that puts me at 6.95 wins, down from 7.39 last week. I still have 8 wins if you just count games I had to pick straight up. It’s just that I don’t feel as good about most of them.

Community Expectations

As of Sunday evening at 8:30, here’s where the GRT community stands on all of the above:

UGA SC AL KY So. Miss. MO LSU Vandy Total Wins
29% 55% 4% 49% 76% 74% 41% 52% 6.79
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