In this space each week of the regular season, we update our expected win totals for the season using our projected win total machine. With only one game left, the only remaining question is what odds you’re giving Tennessee to beat Vanderbilt this week in Nashville. I’ve left the calculator in the post in case you want to use it, but mostly I wanted to use the information we’ve been compiling here each week to briefly summarize the season and what the Vols have and have not yet been able to accomplish.
- West Virginia: #17 at the time, #9 now. Loss, 40-14
- ETSU: The FCS Bucs are co-Southern Champs, currently ranked #22 in the FCS, and headed to the playoffs. Win, 59-3
- UTEP: Terrible team with a bad season. Win, 24-0
- Florida: Not ranked at the time, #13 now. Loss, 47-21
- Georgia: #2 at the time, #5 now. Loss, 38-12
- Auburn: #21 at the time, currently not ranked. Win, 30-24
- Alabama: #1 at the time, #1 now. Loss, 58-21
- South Carolina: Not ranked at the time, not ranked now. Loss, 27-24
- Charlotte: Not ranked then or now. Win, 14-3
- Kentucky: #11 at the time, #17 now. Win, 24-7
- Missouri: Not ranked then or now. Loss, 50-17
Best wins: Kentucky and Auburn.
Expected outcomes: Losses to ranked Alabama, Georgia, West Virginia. Wins against ETSU, UTEP, Charlotte.
Lost opportunities: Florida (better team, but undone by turnovers instead of just getting beat), South Carolina, Missouri.
My new expected win total:
- This week: 5.5
- Last week: 6.1
- After Week 10: 5.3
- After Week 9: 5.55
- After Week 8: 6.0
- After Week 7: 6.3
- After Week 6: 5.0
- After Week 5: 4.9
- After Week 4: 4.55
- After Week 3: 5.5
I didn’t think that Missouri would dominate Tennessee like it did last Saturday, but neither was I surprised, because the SPM was within three points of nailing the scores for both teams. Turns out, the comps were right. The thing is, it could just as easily turned out the other way, which is why I put the chances of beating Missouri at 50%. Missouri was just too balanced and too good along the lines, and those advantages translated into a lot of points.
None of that changes my opinion about the Vanderbilt game, though, which I am still putting at 50%. Go Vols. Go bowling.
Use the form below to calculate your expected win total and post it in the comments below the post.
Notice: JavaScript is required for this content.Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 5-6 (2-5), 6th in the SEC East
- Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
- Beat ETSU, 59-3
- Beat UTEP, 24-0
- Lost to Florida, 47-21
- Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
- Beat #21 Auburn, 30-24
- Lost to #1 Alabama, 58-21
- Lost to South Carolina, 27-24
- Beat Charlotte, 14-3
- Beat No. 11 Kentucky, 24-7
- Lost to Missouri, 50-17
- Vanderbilt
The Vols’ past opponents
West Virginia Mountaineers
Current record: 8-2 (6-2), 2nd in Big 12, #9
- Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
- Beat YSU, 52-17
- NC State, Canceled
- Beat Kansas St, 35-6
- Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
- Beat Kansas, 38-22
- Lost to Iowa State, 30-14
- Bye
- Beat Baylor, 58-14
- Beat #17 Texas, 42-41
- Beat TCU, 47-10
- Lost to Oklahoma State, 45-41
- Oklahoma
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Current record: 8-3 (6-2), 1st in Southern
- Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
- Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
- Beat VMI, 27-24
- Beat Furman, 29-27
- Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
- Beat Gardner-Webb, 45-0
- Beat The Citadel, 26-23
- Lost to Wofford, 31-17
- Beat Western Carolina, 45-43
- Beat Mercer, 21-18
- Bye
- Lost to Samford, 38-27
UTEP Miners
Current record: 1-10 (1-6), 6th in C-USA – West
- Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
- Lost to UNLV, 52-24
- Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
- Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
- Lost to UTSA, 30-21
- Lost North Texas, 27-24
- Bye
- Lost to LA Tech, 31-24
- Lost UAB, 19-0
- Beat Rice, 34-26
- Lost to MTSU, 48-32
- Lost to Western Kentucky, 40-16
- Southern Miss
Florida Gators
Current record: 8-3 (5-3), 2nd in SEC – East, #13
- Beat Charleston So, 53-6
- Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
- Beat Colorado St, 48-10
- Beat Tennessee, 47-21
- Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
- Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
- Beat Vanderbilt, 37-27
- Bye
- Lost to #7 Georgia, 36-17
- Lost to Missouri, 38-17
- Beat South Carolina, 35-31
- Beat Idaho, 63-10
- Florida State
Georgia Bulldogs
Current record: 10-1 (7-1), 1st in SEC – East, #5
- Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
- Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
- Beat MTSU, 49-7
- Beat Missouri, 43-29
- Beat Tennessee, 38-12
- Beat Vanderbilt, 41-13
- Lost to #13 LSU, 36-16
- Bye
- Beat Florida, 36-17
- Beat #9 Kentucky, 34-17
- Beat Auburn, 27-10
- Beat UMass, 66-27
- Georgia Tech
Auburn Tigers
Current record: 7-4 (3-4), 4th in SEC – West
- Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
- Beat Alabama St, 63-9
- Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
- Beat Arkansas, 34-3
- Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
- Lost to Miss St, 23-9
- Lost to Tennessee, 30-24
- Beat Ole Miss, 31-16
- Bye
- Beat #20 Texas A&M, 28-24
- Lost to Georgia, 27-10
- Beat Liberty, 53-0
- Alabama
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 11-0 (7-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1
- Beat Louisville*, 51-14
- Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
- Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
- Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
- Beat Louisiana, 56-14
- Beat Arkansas, 65-31
- Beat Missouri, 39-10
- Beat Tennessee, 58-21
- Bye
- Beat #3 LSU, 29-0
- Beat # 16 Mississippi State, 24-0
- Beat The Citadel, 50-17
- Auburn
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 6-4 (4-4), 4th in SEC – East
- Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
- Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
- Marshall, Canceled
- Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
- Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
- Beat Missouri, 37-35
- Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
- Bye
- Beat Tennessee, 27-24
- Beat Ole Miss, 48-44
- Lost to Florida, 35-31
- Beat Chattanooga, 49-9
- Clemson
Charlotte 49ers
Current record: 4-7 (3-4), 4th in C-USA – East
- Beat Fordham, 34-10
- Lost to App St, 45-9
- Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
- Lost to UMass, 49-31
- Lost to UAB, 28-7
- Beat Western Kentucky, 40-14
- Lost to MTSU, 21-13
- Beat Southern Miss, 20-17
- Lost to Tennessee, 14-3
- Lost to Marshall, 30-13
- Lost to FIU, 42-35
- FAU
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 8-3 (5-3), 2nd in SEC – East, #17
- Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
- Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
- Beat Murray State, 48-10
- Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
- Beat S Carolina, 24-10
- Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
- Bye
- Beat Vanderbilt, 14-7
- Beat Missouri, 15-14
- Lost to Georgia, 34-17
- Lost to Tennessee, 24-7
- Beat MTSU, 34-23
- Louisville
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 7-4 (3-4), 5th in SEC – East
- Beat UT Martin, 51-14
- Beat Wyoming, 40-13
- Beat Purdue, 40-37
- Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
- Lost to South Carolina, 37-35
- Lost to Alabama, 39-10
- Beat Memphis, 65-33
- Lost to Kentucky, 15-14
- Beat #11 Florida, 38-17
- Beat Vanderbilt, 33-28
- Beat Tennessee, 50-17
- Arkansas
The Vols’ future opponents
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 5-6 (2-5), 6th in SEC – East
- Beat MTSU, 35-7
- Beat Nevada, 41-10
- Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
- Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
- Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
- Lost to Georgia, 41-13
- Lost to Florida, 37-27
- Lost to Kentucky, 14-7
- Beat Arkansas, 45-31
- Bye
- Lost to Missouri, 33-28
- Beat Ole Miss, 36-29
- Tennessee