Now two-thirds of the way home, we know a few things. The community will project the Vols to win 11 regular season games this week through some degree of rounding; we’re all mostly curious to see the Georgia number. During Alabama week, fans gave the Vols a 38.3% chance of victory in Knoxville. But once we got that victory, the Georgia numbers have consistently been higher than that. How high are we going this week? How many of us are going 51% or better?
Missouri’s win at South Carolina makes it easier to see that last stretch as a whole. The Tigers are now 4-4 with New Mexico State left on the schedule, so they need one for bowl eligibility. The Gamecocks are 5-3 and can get there via Vanderbilt this week, before closing with the Gators, Vols, and Tigers. We predict those expected win percentages will be high.
All the advanced math conversation will really be about the College Football Playoff poll, released tomorrow night at 7:00 PM ET. But even playing Georgia at any version of #1 through #3, we won’t really be able to learn a whole lot of relevant information about how the committee sees the Vols until next week. If Tennessee loses, where the Vols land in comparison to Clemson and TCU would be of particular importance, though they’ll both be tested on Saturday. The Horned Frogs host Texas Tech at noon; Clemson is at Notre Dame at 7:30.
And of course, if Tennessee beats Georgia, projections will be irrelevant.
Enjoy the week!
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