| GRT's SPM | ||||
| Our spreads (opening) | SP+ spreads (mid-week) | |||
| Cat. 1 (all games) | Cat. 2 | Cat. 3 | All games | |
| Week 11 | 22-21 (51.16%) | 12-2 (85.71%) | 5-0 (100%) | 23-20 (53.49%) |
| Week 12 | 18-23 (43.90%) | 5-7 (41.67%) | 4-2 (66.67%) | 20-21 (48.78%) |
| Week 13 | 23-20 (53.49%) | 7-5 (58.33%) | 4-3 (57.14%) | 21-21 (50%) |
| Week 14 | 27-18 (60%) | 12-5 (70.59%) | 7-4 (63.64%) | 27-18 (60%) |
| Season | 239-210 (53.23%) | 92-74 (55.42%) | 47-37 (55.95%) | |
| SP+ | ||||
| Our spreads (opening) | Official results | |||
| Week 11 | 21-22 (48.84%) | 18-24-1 (43%) | ||
| Week 12 | 23-18 (56.10%) | 25-16 (61%) | ||
| Week 13 | 22-21 (51.16%) | 18-26 (41%) | ||
| Week 14 | 20-25 (44.44%) | 20-25 (44%) | ||
| Season | 246-203 (54.79%) | 229-217-6 (51.3%) |
Pretty good week for the ol’ GRT Statsy Preview Machine. It went 27-18 (60%) overall, 12-5 (70.59%) in Category 2, and 7-4 (63.64%) in Category 3. For the season, the Machine is now 239-210 (53.23%) in Category 1, 92-74 (55.42%) in Category 2, and 47-37 (55.95%) in Category 3.
Of the seven “Category 4” games, one was postponed, and I excluded another because it wasn’t actually a Category 4 game. The others went 3-2 (60%), making the results for the five weeks we’ve been tracking them 14-3 (82.35%).
Using the same spreads as SP+, the Machine was also 27-18 (60%) overall for the week.
SP+ had a rough week, going 20-25 (44%) officially, using its own spreads. It happens. For the season, SP+ is 229-217-6 (51.3%). It did the same against our spreads this week and is now 246-203 (54.79%) for the season against the same Vegas opening spreads that we use.
Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 15 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not perfectly clear from the above results, spreads matter.
GRT SPM 2020 Week 15 Picks
| Away | Home | Favorite | Spread | SPM Favorite | SPM Spread | Favorite... |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech | -2.5 | Virginia Tech | -2.3 | Doesn't Cover |
| USC | UCLA | USC | -3 | USC | -2.7 | Doesn't Cover |
| Charlotte | Marshall | Marshall | -20.5 | Marshall | -19.9 | Doesn't Cover |
| Florida Atlantic | Southern Mississippi | Florida Atlantic | -8.5 | Florida Atlantic | -9.4 | Covers |
| San Diego State | BYU | BYU | -15.5 | BYU | -16.9 | Covers |
| California | Washington State | California | 0 | Washington State | -1.8 | Doesn't cover |
| Wisconsin | Iowa | Iowa | -2.5 | Iowa | -0.5 | Doesn't Cover |
| Arizona State | Arizona | Arizona State | -8.5 | Arizona State | -10.9 | Covers |
| Appalachian State | Georgia Southern | Appalachian State | -9.5 | Appalachian State | -12 | Covers |
| Alabama | Arkansas | Alabama | -31 | Alabama | -33.7 | Covers |
| Central Michigan | Toledo | Toledo | -10.5 | Toledo | -7.5 | Doesn't Cover |
| Boise State | Wyoming | Boise State | -13.5 | Boise State | -10.3 | Doesn't Cover |
| Western Michigan | Ball State | Ball State | -2.5 | Western Michigan | -0.8 | Doesn't cover |
| Cincinnati | Tulsa | Cincinnati | -13 | Cincinnati | -16.5 | Covers |
| Tennessee | Vanderbilt | Tennessee | -15 | Tennessee | -11.4 | Doesn't Cover |
| Coastal Carolina | Troy | Coastal Carolina | -14 | Coastal Carolina | -18 | Covers |
| LSU | Florida | Florida | -22.5 | Florida | -18.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| Duke | Florida State | Florida State | -4 | Duke | -0.4 | Doesn't cover |
| Houston | Memphis | Houston | -2.5 | Memphis | -2 | Doesn't cover |
| Oklahoma | West Virginia | Oklahoma | -10.5 | Oklahoma | -15 | Covers |
| Purdue | Indiana | Indiana | -13 | Indiana | -8.3 | Doesn't Cover |
| Michigan | Ohio State | Ohio State | -30 | Ohio State | -25.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| Nevada | San Jose State | San Jose State | -3.5 | San Jose State | -9.2 | Covers |
| North Carolina | Miami (Florida) | Miami (Florida) | -3 | Miami (Florida) | -8.9 | Covers |
| North Texas | UTEP | North Texas | -9.5 | North Texas | -3.6 | Doesn't Cover |
| Washington | Oregon | Oregon | -5 | Washington | -1.1 | Doesn't cover |
| Oklahoma State | Baylor | Oklahoma State | -4.5 | Oklahoma State | -11 | Covers |
| Fresno State | New Mexico | Fresno State | -12 | Fresno State | -5.1 | Doesn't Cover |
| Auburn | Mississippi State | Auburn | -9 | Auburn | -16.3 | Covers |
| Utah State | Colorado State | Colorado State | -12 | Colorado State | -4.6 | Doesn't Cover |
| Pittsburgh | Georgia Tech | Pittsburgh | -6.5 | Pittsburgh | -14.4 | Covers |
| Illinois | Northwestern | Northwestern | -14 | Northwestern | -22 | Covers |
| Incarnate Word | Arkansas State | Arkansas State | -21.5 | Arkansas State | -30.3 | Covers |
| UNLV | Hawaii | Hawaii | -21.5 | Hawaii | -12.7 | Doesn't Cover |
| Michigan State | Penn State | Penn State | -13.5 | Penn State | -3 | Doesn't Cover |
| Georgia | Missouri | Georgia | -12.5 | Georgia | -23.2 | Covers |
| Northern Illinois | Eastern Michigan | Eastern Michigan | -3.5 | Eastern Michigan | -14.4 | Covers |
| Stanford | Oregon State | Stanford | -4 | Oregon State | -6.9 | Doesn't cover |
| Ohio | Kent State | Kent State | -6 | Ohio | -5 | Doesn't cover |
| Minnesota | Nebraska | Nebraska | -9.5 | Minnesota | -1.8 | Doesn't cover |
| Utah | Colorado | Colorado | -2.5 | Colorado | -14.5 | Covers |
| Rutgers | Maryland | Maryland | -7.5 | Rutgers | -4.5 | Doesn't cover |
| Navy | Army | Army | -5.5 | Army | -17.5 | Covers |
| UAB | Rice | UAB | -9 | Rice | -3.6 | Doesn't cover |
| Akron | Buffalo | Buffalo | -33.5 | Buffalo | -46.3 | Covers |
| Miami (Ohio) | Bowling Green | Miami (Ohio) | -21.5 | Miami (Ohio) | -34.5 | Covers |
| Wake Forest | Louisville | Louisville | -3 | Wake Forest | -12.8 | Doesn't cover |
| Louisiana Tech | TCU | TCU | -20.5 | Louisiana Tech | -3.6 | Doesn't cover |
| Texas | Kansas | Texas | -31 | Texas | -59.7 | Covers |
This week, there are 12 Category 3 games, those that the GRT Statsy Preview Machine likes particularly well. Of those, six make the Category 4 cut because they also agree with SP+:
- Georgia at Missouri (Georgia -12.5)
- Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan (Eastern Michigan -3.5)
- Stanford at Oregon State (Oregon State +4)
- Ohio at Kent State (Ohio +6)
- Minnesota at Nebraska (Minnesota +9.5)
- Navy at Army (Army -5.5)