Three Days Before Early Signing Day: What We Know, What We Don’t Know, and What We Think

From when we took a look at things headed into this past weekend, things certainly have changed.  And when it comes to who showed up in Knoxville and who didn’t, and the overall vibe coming out of the weekend, it was pretty much 100% good news for the Vols.  The only no-show was Dyersburg LB Chris Russell, who had to reschedule his OV because he had an ill family member; however, he reaffirmed his initial plan to sign in February, so for Tennessee to be able to save that OV until January that should turn out to be good news. 

In terms of unexpected arrivals, suffice it to say that the weekend went from good to great pretty quickly.  5-star OL Darnell Wright made yet another trip from West Virginia while 5-star LB Quarvaris Crouchdrove in from Charlotte to spend more time on campus after what must have been a grand slam of an in-home visit from Head Coach Jeremy Pruitt and much of the staff late last week.  In addition, longtime JUCO WR target Javonta Payton, a Mississippi State commitment, was convinced to take an OV to Knoxville.  And finally, RB Eric Gray, who Volquest.com had hinted at possibly eschewing an OV to Texas A&M and instead driving yet again to Knoxville, did in fact visit Tennessee.  Those four, along with the visitors already scheduled, made for a star-studded weekend at just the right time mere days before the Early Signing Period begins on Wednesday.

What We Know

At this point the hay is in the barn in terms of the work Pruitt and Co. have done with the early signees.  Here’s what we know as of Monday morning December 17^th:

We know that a least 16 of Tennessee’s 19 existing commitments (not counting Jalil Clemons who will not be a Vol), if not 17 (apparently there is some uncertainty with DL Darrel Middleton), will be signing this week.

We know that the remaining two commitments are DL Leddarius Cox and LB Lakia Henry.  Cox has seemed like a soft commitment almost from the day he pledged to the Vols, and although he has maintained all week at the AL/MS All-Star Game practices – where he’s performed pretty well by all accounts – that he is solid to the Vols, the fact that he’s not signing this week speaks volumes.  He’s got an OV scheduled to Ole Miss in January and in-state Auburn is still involved to some degree.  The picture with Henry is somehow even muddier than Cox’s, as he’s already taken his Tennessee OV back in November and along with an OV to Arkansas – who feels pretty good about their position – he just took an unofficial visit to Florida State this weekend with his family and landed an offer.  He’s obviously far from solid at this point and the guess here is that the Tennessee staff is planning accordingly.

We know that LB Ke’Shun Brown and DL Kristian Williams are off the board, committing to Texas A&M and Minnesota, respectively, over the weekend.  While Williams was a bit of a fall-back target who Tennessee was hoping would hold off on committing/signing anywhere until February, Brown was a legit target who the Vols hosted the previous weekend.  With Trezeman Marshall reaffirming his longstanding commitment to UGA over the weekend, that leaves Russell and Henry To’oto’to as major February targets at ILB.

We know that Tennessee had very successful official visits this weekend with DL Nick Figureoa, RB Noah Cain, and WR Jaylen Ellis, putting itself firmly in play for all three prospects.  Figureoa was admittedly leaning toward staying out West to play at USC before the visit, but he raved about his trip to Knoxville to the point that it’s clear the Vols are a real option.  Similarly, Cain said himself that he didn’t know what to expect coming in but that both he and his mother were blown away.  Ellis similarly had a great experience and looks to be a coin flip

What We Don’t Know

We don’t know if Wright is going to sign next week or continue to wait despite clearly being a massive Vol lean.

We don’t know if either Oklahoma commitment OL EJ Ndoma-Ogar, OLB Khris Bogle, or DB Jammie Robinson – who took an OV to Kentucky over the weekend – are going to sign on Wednesday or wait until February.  If Bogle signs this week it’s likely local favorite Miami.  If he waits the Hurricanes will have to sweat, among others, Alabama and Tennessee all the way to February.

We don’t know what WR targets Payton and Jadon Haselwood, who was at UGA over the weekend, are going to do.  While Haselwood appears to be a longshot for Tennessee, the fact that Payton took the last-minute OV to Knoxville (and apparently tried to hide it from MSU coaches and media) means that he is at worst very much considering flipping to the Vols.

We don’t know why Darrel Middleton signing this week is newly uncertain.  Is it grades?  Something else?  That’s unclear, but the situation certainly bears watching as he was presumably a December graduate who would enroll at Tennessee in January and be ready to get a spring practice in before contributing immediately next season.

Perhaps most importantly, we don’t know how many signees Tennessee can actually fit into this class within the NCAA mandated guidelines.  All along the thought has been that if the Vols want to get as many players into this class as possible there would need to be some mathematical gymnastics.  But at this point there don’t appear to be any blueshirts available among current commitments and top targets.  And with the Vols taking a full class last cycle no one outside of the staff knows how much room there really is.

What Do We Think?

We think that if the Vols land Figureoa, a 3-to-play-3 JUCO DL with good size and a great West Coast offer list, Tennessee will move on from Cox.  Figureoa will have simply replaced Cox and the Vols will still be sitting with the same number of commitments, yet they’ll have upgraded at the position with an instant-impact contributor on the DL.

We think that current commitment Aaron Beasley, 6’1 220 already and listed as a safety, is going to end up playing LB at Tennessee.  And we think that the Vols are in good shape with Russell.  And we think that Tennessee’s main competition for To’oto’to (Alabama) could simply run out of room regardless of whether they can beat the Vols straight up for him.  Therefore, we think that there will be a “mutual parting of ways” with Lakia Henry if Tennessee likes where it sits with the rest of its board at other positions.

We think that Tennessee needs at least one more WR in this class to go with stud Ramel Keyton but that they won’t have room for both Ellis and Payton, so whoever jumps in the boat first will get the spot.  We also think that Ellis is not going to have a spot at Michigan as the Wolverines look set to land their other major target for their final WR spot in Cornelius Johnson, so it is going to come down to staying closer to home and sticking with Baylor or getting instant playing time in the SEC for him.

We think that if one considers it to be very unlikely that Clemons, Cox and Henry end up signing with the Vols that leaves at most 8 spots for the following Baker’s Dozen of targets:

1. OL Darnell Wright
2. OL EJ Ndoma-Ogar
3. RB Eric Gray
4. RB Noah Cain
5. WR Jaylen Ellis
6. WR Javonta Payton
7. WR Jadon Haselwood
8. DL Nick Figureoa
9. OLB Quarvaris Crouch
10. OLB Khris Bogle
11. ILB Chris Russell
12. ILB Henry To’oto’to
13. DB Jammie Robinson

We think that at this point Wright, Gray and Crouch are leaning toward the Vols, with Gray likely having given his commitment to the coaches and simply waiting until his scheduled Thursday announcement to go public.  Wright also seems likely to have committed to the coaches.  And while Crouch won’t announce until January 5^th at the All-America Game, right now Tennessee has all the momentum. More will clear up about both Tennessee’s needs, spots, and who’s actually left once Wednesday rolls around.  Same for the schools who are recruiting those that won’t sign until February, and others who might jump in if they unexpectedly miss on other targets.  And there are other prospects who the Vols have put themselves in position to circle back to in January should the need arise, such as LB Octavius Brothers and DB Travis Jay among others.  Obviously not all 13 of those “no-question in a vacuum” takes are going to call Pruitt and want in (with Haselwood and Bogle being the least likely), but the Vols have absolutely swung momentum towards Knoxville at the best possible time.