The kryptonite for the Vols to avoid in the NCAA Tournament

Auburn is the only team to beat Tennessee twice this season, and both times, the Tigers did it by hitting double digit threes and forcing double digit turnovers. We know that allowing the opponent to get to the free throw line an inordinate number of times was also a problem against Kentucky once and the LSU Tigers the only time we played them, but if there’s a blueprint for beating the Vols in the Big Dance, I’d look first for teams that check the same boxes Auburn does.

Three-pointers per game

We won’t know the Vols’ possible opponents until the official bracket is unveiled tonight at 6:00, but here is a list of teams that are similar to or better than Auburn at hitting a plethora of three-pointers per game:


RANK	TEAM	GM	3FG	3PG	NET
1	Winthrop	30	372	12.4	179
2	The Citadel	30	370	12.3	274
3	Savannah St.	31	351	11.3	339
4	Quinnipiac	30	338	11.3	244
5	Auburn	31	343	11.1	18
6	Wofford	33	364	11	13
7	Presbyterian	33	361	10.9	204
8	Purdue Fort Wayne	33	360	10.9	219
9	Creighton	31	338	10.9	53
10	Fresno St.	30	321	10.7	80
11	Villanova	31	331	10.7	26
12	Belmont	31	325	10.5	47
13	Elon	32	335	10.5	277
14	Nicholls St.	31	324	10.5	313
15	Furman	32	330	10.3	41
16	VMI	32	323	10.1	305
17	Georgia St.	31	310	10	121
18	South Dakota St.	32	318	9.9	104
19	Charleston So.	32	317	9.9	197
20	Utah	30	296	9.9	105

Auburn’s 5th in the nation in three-pointers made per game, and the table above includes the Top 20 teams in that category. Most of those won’t make the tournament, but some of them will. Wofford, Villanova, Belmont, or Furman could spell trouble when it comes to having to defend three-pointers.

Forced turnovers

Here’s a list of teams that are similar to or better than Auburn at forcing turnovers:


RANK	TEAM	GM	OPP TO	AVG	NET
1	FIU	31	613	19.77	187
2	Eastern Ky.	31	567	18.29	259
3	New Orleans	29	525	18.1	266
4	Prairie View	32	579	18.09	205
5	UTRGV	33	589	17.85	168
6	Auburn	31	548	17.68	18
7	Morgan St.	30	530	17.67	333
8	Rider	31	528	17.03	201
9	Arkansas	31	519	16.74	65
10	UNC Greensboro	34	569	16.74	60
11	Charleston So.	32	532	16.63	197
12	Abilene Christian	31	511	16.48	154
13	Marshall	31	510	16.45	148
14	Memphis	31	509	16.42	46
-	VCU	31	509	16.42	34
16	Lamar University	31	506	16.32	220
17	NC State	31	503	16.23	33
18	Washington	31	501	16.16	45
19	Illinois	31	499	16.1	109
20	Buffalo	31	495	15.97	15

Auburn is 6th in the nation in forced turnovers per game, and the above table includes the Top 20 in that category. Again, most of those won’t actually be in the tournament, but some may have or still may earn automatic bids by winning their conference tournaments, and some have NET ratings strong enough to get at-large bids. Buffalo, N.C. State, VCU, and a couple of others could give Tennessee problems if they end up in the same region.

The deadly combo

The good news is that there doesn’t appear to be, apart from the Auburn Tigers themselves, a team that presents the same lethal combination that killed Tennessee’s two chances at SEC titles this season.

Maybe Tennessee’s performance today was more about playing the day after a game that felt like a national semi-final. There’s a reason they don’t play the title game without a day of rest between that and the Final Four games. And maybe Bruce Pearl is the sole caretaker of that pocketful of kryptonite and his team will get bounced by someone else before they can advance to face the Vols again.

But if the magic formula is great three-point shooting and an ability to force a lot of turnovers, then the Vols are going to want to give a wide berth to any team that does well at both.

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Harley

5 years ago

While stopping the 3 is definite issue… I believe the turnovers either caused by Auburn or self inflicted it destroyed flow and lost scoring opportunities… it smacked of lack of focus and energy for whatever reason or excuse. Get rested and go for the gold… Go Vols!!