Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Wisconsin Badgers. The conclusions are up front, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:
Baseline
First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season:
| FG% | 3FG% | TOs/G | OR/G | DR/G | FTA/G | |
| Tennessee | 43.5 | 29.4 | 13.1 | 10.27 | 27.18 | 19.64 |
| Wisconsin | 44.2 | 32.3 | 11.3 | 8.73 | 25.09 | 17.91 |
Summary and Score Prediction
All bets are off with Tennessee scrambling to replace point guard Lamonte Turner, and it will take some time for the numbers to catch up with his absence. That said, these two teams appear to be evenly matched in most of the four factors, although the Vols defense may have more of an impact on Wisconsin than Wisconsin’s will have on Tennessee. Offensive rebounds and free-throw attempts will be at a premium.
The goals for the Vols:
- Figure out life without Lamonte Turner.
- Make the most of an apparent defensive advantage, forcing Wisconsin into a subpar shooting percentage.
- Capitalize on offensive rebounds and free throw attempts when they’re available.
KenPom gives Tennessee a 70% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 62, Wisconsin 57.
My prediction: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
| Team | eFG% | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Washington | 51.4 | 86 |
| Mississippi St. | 51.2 | 93 |
| Memphis | 50.9 | 104 |
| Tennessee | 48.8 | 199 |
Conclusion: A pretty good shooting team, Wisconsin is most similar to Memphis in this regard and better than Tennessee.
Turnover %
| Team | TO% | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | 20.9 | 284 |
| Jacksonville St. | 21 | 293 |
| Mississippi St. | 21.1 | 298 |
| Missouri | 21.2 | 299 |
Conclusion: Wisconsin protects the ball better than any other team the Vols have played so far this season. The most-similar prior Vols opponent is UNC Asheville.
Offensive Rebound %
| Team | OR% | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi St. | 40 | 2 |
| LSU | 37.2 | 6 |
| Tennessee | 28.9 | 153 |
Conclusion: Tennessee is a better rebounding team than Wisconsin, who is most similar to VCU and Chattanooga among prior Vols opponents.
Free Throw Rate
| Team | FTRate | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | 37 | 68 |
| Mississippi St. | 36.9 | 69 |
| Mississippi | 36.5 | 74 |
| Tennessee | 34 | 129 |
Conclusion: The Vols also have an edge at getting to the free-throw line, although it’s not by much. The Badgers are most similar to Florida A&M in this category.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s eFG% is 48.5 (No. 199), and it will be going up against a defense that is 48.8 (No. 165).
When Wisconsin has the ball
The Badgers’ eFG% is 51.3 (No. 103), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 42.7 (No. 13).
Conclusions
Tennessee’s offense and Wisconsin’s defense are pretty evenly matched, but the Vols’ defense has an advantage over the Badgers’ offense.
Turnover %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee has a turnover % of 19.3 (No. 159), while the Badgers’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 18.2 (No. 247).
When Wisconsin has the ball
Wisconsin’s turnover % is 17.2 (No. 48), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 21.2 (No. 100).
Conclusions
With the loss of Turner for the season, it’s a good thing that they’re not playing a team that is especially adept at forcing turnovers. Wisconsin generally protects the ball pretty well, but the Vols might be able to affect their ability to do so in this game.
Offensive Rebounding %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s OR% is 30.1 (No. 115). Wisconsin’s defense in that category is 24 (No. 38).
When Wisconsin has the ball
The Badgers’ OR% is 27.4 (No. 190), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 25.1 (No. 68).
Conclusions
Neither team is exactly bad at getting offensive rebounds, but they’ll both be going up against teams that are better at grabbing them for the defense. Basically, it looks like offensive rebounds are going to be at a premium.
Free Throw Rate
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s FT Rate is 35.3 (No. 110), while Wisconsin’s defense against that is 25.5 (No. 61).
When Wisconsin has the ball
The Badgers’ FT Rate is 33.1 (No. 153), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 26.8 (No. 81).
Conclusions
As with offensive rebounds, both teams are decent at getting to the foul line but will be going up against defenses that are adept at keeping opponents from doing so.
Summary and Score Prediction
All bets are off with Tennessee scrambling to replace point guard Lamonte Turner, and it will take some time for the numbers to catch up with his absence. That said, these two teams appear to be evenly matched, although the Vols defense may have more of an impact on Wisconsin than Wisconsin’s will have on Tennessee. Offensive rebounds and free throw attempts will be at a premium.
The goals for the Vols:
- Figure out life without Lamonte Turner.
- Make the most of an apparent defensive advantage, forcing Wisconsin into a subpar shooting percentage.
- Capitalize on offensive rebounds and free throw attempts when they’re available.
KenPom gives Tennessee a 70% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 62, Wisconsin 57.
My prediction: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Go Vols.