Previously on GRT Four Factors: These were the goals we identified for the Vols heading into the Kansas game:
- If you shoot poorly, make them shoot worse. Possess this ability, you do.
- Turn turnovers into easy points. If somebody gives you cake, you eat it, right? Eat the cake.
- If able, steal their cloaking devices. If you manage this, the Big 12 will award you an honorary doctorate from every school in the conference. Except probably Kansas.
How’d they do?
- The Vols shot 45.5% from the field and 40% from the arc, and they held Kansas to 46.3% from the field and 23.5% from three. That’s pretty good, and it’s what kept them close.
- There wasn’t a lot of opportunity for fast break points created by turnovers because Kansas only turned the ball over 6 times. This didn’t work.
- Nope. There were 23 fouls called on Tennessee and only 16 called on Kansas. Free throw attempts were 33 for the Jayhawks to 16 for the good guys. This didn’t work, either.
Still, Tennessee kept it interesting right until the end and only lost 74-68. It was a good game plan, and it was executed pretty well, but in the end Azubuike was just too good.
Let’s have a look at what might happen tonight against the Aggies.
Baseline
First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.
| FG% | 3FG% | TOs/G | OR/G | DR/G | FTA/G | |
| Tennessee | 43 | 30.9 | 14 | 9.84 | 26.79 | 18.42 |
| Texas A&M | 40.1 | 26.1 | 13.8 | 10 | 24.28 | 20.78 |
Hmm. The Aggies don’t shoot very well.
Summary and Score Prediction
This game pits one huge advantage against another: Tennessee’s shooting defense should smother a bad-shooting A&M team into a terrible shooting percentage, but the Aggies should have a huge advantage at keeping the Vols off the free throw line while getting there a lot themselves.
The goals for the Vols:
- Balance. The Vols’ shooting defense is so good and A&M’s shooting offense is so bad that the Vols could probably play safe enough to minimize A&M’s trips to the charity stripe and still pretty much shut them down from the field. Find the right balance.
- Turnovers and rebounds seem to be fairly even, so win those battles.
- Don’t forget that the magic phrase is “inside-out.”
KenPom gives Tennessee an 87% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 65, Texas A&M 52. That makes me nod.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
| Team | eFG% | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Washington | 51.4 | 86 |
| Mississippi St. | 51.2 | 93 |
| Memphis | 50.9 | 104 |
| Tennessee | 48.8 | 199 |
Conclusion: Tennessee’s been shooting better, but still has a pretty deep hole to climb out of, but the good news is that Texas A&M is a really bad shooting team.
Turnover %
| Team | TO% | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | 20.9 | 284 |
| Jacksonville St. | 21 | 293 |
| Mississippi St. | 21.1 | 298 |
| Missouri | 21.2 | 299 |
Conclusion: Neither team writing home about this one.
Offensive Rebound %
| Team | OR% | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi St. | 40 | 2 |
| LSU | 37.2 | 6 |
| Tennessee | 28.9 | 153 |
Conclusion: Eh, basically even here.
Free Throw Rate
| Team | FTRate | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | 37 | 68 |
| Mississippi St. | 36.9 | 69 |
| Mississippi | 36.5 | 74 |
| Tennessee | 34 | 129 |
Conclusion: Ooh. Goodness. These guys live at the line. Good to know.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s eFG% is 48.6 (No. 209), and A&M’s defensive eFG% is 46.9 (No. 84). This is where I would usually say that Tennessee’s shooting woes aren’t getting better tonight, but they have actually been shooting better, so what do I know?
When Texas A&M has the ball
The Aggies’ eFG% is 45.3 (No. 327), and Tennessee’s shooting defense is 43.2 (No. 8). Could be a long night for the Aggies.
Conclusions
A&M has a pretty good shooting defense, but the Vols seem to have found their touch lately. On the other end, there is a monstrous disparity with a terrible shooting team going up against an elite shooting defense in the Vols. This could be fun. For us.
Turnover %
When Tennessee has the ball
The Vols turnover % is still terrible at 20.9 (No. 280), and the Aggies’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 21.6 (No. 59). Smh.
When A&M has the ball
A&M’s turnover % is identical to that of Tennessee’s at 20.9 (No. 281) and ranks lower only by a third-letter tiebreaker. It will be going up against a defensive rating of 19.6 (No. 141).
Conclusions
Rather than fighting this, I’m just going to think differently about it for the sake of my sanity. Turnovers are fun!
Offensive Rebounding %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s OR% is 29.4 (No. 120), and A&M’s defense in that category is 31.5 (No. 300).
When A&M has the ball
The Aggies’ OR% is 29 (No. 138), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 27.4 (No. 145).
Conclusions
Maybe a slight advantage for the Vols on the offensive boards.
Free Throw Rate
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34 (No. 130), while Texas A&M’s defense against that is 25.3 (No. 33).
When A&M has the ball
The Aggies’ FT Rate is 39.9 (No. 27), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 29.7 (No. 130).
Conclusions
A&M looks to have a huge advantage in free throw attempts.
Go Vols.