Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:
Baseline
First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.
| FG% | 3FG% | TOs/G | OR/G | DR/G | FTA/G | |
| Tennessee | 43.2 | 30.7 | 14 | 9.55 | 26.30 | 18.25 |
| Mississippi St. | 46.2 | 33.8 | 14.1 | 13.25 | 25.45 | 20.75 |
Well. Right out of the gate, this looks like an uphill battle.
Summary and Score Prediction
All buzzers, beepers, and sirens are screaming and blinking red as a Tennessee team having problems keeping even mediocre opponents off the offensive boards are set to take on a Mississippi State Bulldogs team that ranks second in the nation at getting them.
The Vols could manage, though, as their shooting defense is still extremely effective and should always keep them in games. But they also desperately need to find their own shooting touch consistently.
The goals for the Vols:
- Box out. Rebound. Keep the Bulldogs off the offensive glass. They’re going to get some — it’s what they do — but don’t let it turn into a feast.
- Balance, again. Go ahead and divert some resources to boxing out, but keep your defensive edge at the same time.
- Find your shooting touch. It comes via inside touches.
KenPom gives Tennessee a measly 29% chance of winning and puts the score at Mississippi State 67, Tennessee 61.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
| Team | eFG% | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Washington | 51.4 | 86 |
| Mississippi St. | 51.2 | 93 |
| Memphis | 50.9 | 104 |
| Tennessee | 48.8 | 199 |
Conclusion: Most like Washington and Memphis, and quite a bit better than Tennessee. Nice.
Turnover %
| Team | TO% | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | 20.9 | 284 |
| Jacksonville St. | 21 | 293 |
| Mississippi St. | 21.1 | 298 |
| Missouri | 21.2 | 299 |
Conclusion: Basically the same as Tennessee. At least there’s that.
Offensive Rebound %
| Team | OR% | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi St. | 40 | 2 |
| LSU | 37.2 | 6 |
| Tennessee | 28.9 | 153 |
Conclusion: Oh, good. After a bad loss due to an inability to keep the other team off the offensive boards, we now get to play the second-best offensive rebounding team in the country. Woo.
Free Throw Rate
| Team | FTRate | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | 37 | 68 |
| Mississippi St. | 36.9 | 69 |
| Mississippi | 36.5 | 74 |
| Tennessee | 34 | 129 |
Conclusion: Most like Cincinnati and Mississippi, and better than Tennessee. Sigh.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s eFG% is 48.8 (No. 199), and Mississippi State’s defensive eFG% is 47.3 (No. 95).
When Mississippi State has the ball
The Bulldogs’ eFG% is 51.2 (No. 93), and Tennessee’s shooting defense is 42.9 (No. 7).
Conclusions
The Vols really need to find their shooting touch and make it happen consistently. The Bulldogs shoot well, but Tennessee’s shooting defense is still really good at frustrating opponents.
Turnover %
When Tennessee has the ball
The Vols turnover % is 20.9 (No. 284), and the Bulldogs’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 18.6 (No. 201).
When Mississippi State has the ball
Mississippi State’s turnover % is 21.1 (No. 298) and will be going up against Tennessee’s defensive rating of 19.8 (No. 129).
Conclusions
Neither team is very good at causing turnovers, but both teams are perfectly willing to just give the ball to the other team. It’s like Christmas!
Offensive Rebounding %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s OR% is 28.9 (No. 153), and Mississippi State’s defense in that category is 29.1 (No. 222).
When Mississippi State has the ball
The Bulldogs’ OR% is 40 (No. 2), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 29 (No. 218).
Conclusions
Gulp. This is a bona fide emergency. Tennessee’s bad at keeping opponents from getting offensive rebounds, and that just happens to be the Bulldogs’ specialty.
Free Throw Rate
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34 (No. 129), while Mississippi State’s defense against that is 29.5 (No. 127).
When Mississippi State has the ball
The Bulldogs’ FT Rate is 36.9 (No. 69), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 30.8 (No. 157).
Conclusions
Advantage Bulldogs.
Go Vols.