UPDATE: Game postponed due to COVID-19 concerns within the Vanderbilt program. We’ll keep this up for Saturday’s game between the same teams, as that one is still on for now.
Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Vanderbilt Commodores tonight.
Summary and Score Prediction
The good news: The Vols should have decided advantages in almost every facet of the game this evening, especially on defense, in turnovers, and at the free throw line.
The bad news: Tennessee and Vandy are about equally as good at rebounding the ball.
Vegas has the Vols as 12.5-point favorites. With an over/under of 137.5, that puts the score at something like Tennessee 75, Vanderbilt 63.
KenPom likes the Vols by 12 and puts the score at Tennessee 73, Vanderbilt 61, which translates into an 87% chance of winning.
Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols to cover easily, by 21 (Tennessee 78, Vanderbilt 57).
Details below.
Baseline
Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.
Knee-jerk analysis: This looks even on the boards, but the Vols appear to have a decided advantage everywhere else. Tennessee is currently No. 10 in the AP Top 25, while Texas A&M is unranked. In KenPom, the Vols are No. 9, and the ‘Dores are No. 137.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Conclusion: Vanderbilt shoots about like the Vols. Colorado is the most similar prior opponent in this regard.
Turnover %
Conclusion: Most like Alabama and Missouri when it comes to turnovers.
Offensive Rebound %
Conclusion: Basically like Colorado on the offensive boards. Also similar to Texas A&M.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusion: Who doesn’t like free stuff? Vanderbilt.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
Conclusions
The Vols shouldn’t have much trouble hitting their shots tonight. Vanderbilt? Well, they’re probably going to have some trouble.
Turnover %
Conclusions
Ooh, look! Free turnovers! And they’re mine, all mine! I love turnovers!
Offensive Rebounding %
Conclusions
Yes, even with the defensive interference, we’re looking at an even game on the boards on both sides of the floor tonight.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusions
Tennessee’s still not really getting to the free throw line all that often, but Vandy may make it a bit easier this evening. And on the other side of the floor, the Commodores are too proud to accept your stinking charity anyway.
Go Vols.
