Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the USC Upstate Spartans tonight.

Summary and Score Prediction

Among the Vols’ prior opponents so far this season, the USC Upstate Spartans compare most closely to Cincinnati and St. Joseph’s, and the result tonight should be similar.

Here’s our humble suggestion on how to better enjoy the game tonight by knowing what to watch for:

  1. Expect Tennessee to continue to work on things that are not yet up to the high standards of Rick Barnes, like tip-to-zeroes focus, ball movement to get good shots, and getting to the free throw line.
  2. The smothering defense should continue against USC Upstate, making it extremely difficult for the Spartans to get anything going, especially when they also figure to be prone to turning the ball over and unable to get rebounds.

Vegas has Tennessee as a 33.5-point favorite. KenPom likes the Vols by 27 and puts the score at Tennessee 84, Saint Joseph’s 57, which translates into a 99% chance of winning.

Our toddler Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by a whopping 43 points (Tennessee 92, USC Upstate 49). Woo.

Details below.

Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

Okay. Again, looking pretty good so far.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: They shoot like Cincinnati and St. Joe’s.

Turnover %

Conclusion: They like to give the ball up. Fun!

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Ooh. This is shaping up quite nicely.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: About even here.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols are really beginning to get their groove on offense but still have some ground to make up from a couple of clunkers early in the season. On the other end of the court, USC Upstate is in for a shock.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Again, the Vols are both really protecting the ball well and really doing a good job of stealing it from the other team. The Spartans aren’t especially adept at thievery, and they are exceedingly generous on the other end. More opportunities to improve shooting for the Vols!

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Woo, more green-on-red. The Vols are rebounding really well on both ends of the court, and the Spartans, well, the Spartans are not. Still more opportunities for the Vols to improve their shooting!

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Along with continuing to improve their shooting percentages, the Vols have also been improving their ability to get to the free throw line. But as with shooting, they still have some ground to cover on the free-throw front. The Spartans aren’t just going to give this to them.

Go Vols.