Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Missouri Tigers tomorrow night.
Summary and Score Prediction
The good news: When these two teams last met, Tennessee dominated. They won primarily on the strength of turnovers, excellent shooting, and terrific defense. While the shooting tends to ebb and flow, turnovers and defense appear to be pretty consistent and reliable characteristics of this team, the last game against the Gators notwithstanding.
The bad news: On paper, Tennessee and Missouri are almost strikingly similar, and they are exceptional at getting to the free throw line and on defense, the last game against the Vols notwithstanding. And Tennessee went Jekyll and Hyde earlier this week and somehow turned all of their pretties into big, fat uglies against the Gators. The last time out, Tennessee played well and Missouri played poorly. If both teams are on, this contest should be much, much closer. And the Vols are plenty capable of turning in a clunker.
The line isn’t out yet, but KenPom likes the Vols by 6 and puts the score at Tennessee 68, Missouri 62, which translates into a 71% chance of winning.
Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 7 (Tennessee 67, Missouri 60).
Details below.
Baseline
Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.
That looks remarkably even. Tennessee does appear to protect the ball better than Missouri, although that certainly wasn’t the case against Florida earlier this week.
Here’s how things played out the last time these two teams met:
The Vols dominated that game. Rebounding and getting to the free throw line were even, but Tennessee won on turnovers and shooting percentages on both ends of the floor.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Conclusion: Among prior Tennessee opponents, Missouri’s effective shooting percentage is most like that of Colorado and Arkansas.
Turnover %
Conclusion: Most like Saint Joseph’s, Cincinnati, and USC Upstate. But Florida is the next-best.
Offensive Rebound %
Conclusion: Most like Vandy and Cincinnati on the offensive boards.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusion: These guys know how to get to the line. Only Texas A&M (among prior Vols’ opponents) is better.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
Conclusions
Yikes. A little defense for you, and a little defense for me. Both teams really make it difficult on opposing offenses. Looking at those numbers, it should be the case that Tennessee’s offense struggles more than Missouri’s, but that’s not how it turned out the last time they played.
Turnover %
Conclusions
Turnovers were a big factor in the last matchup, and they could be again, as the Vols both protect the ball well and force opponents into a lot of turnovers, while Missouri appears to be generally bad at doing anything about it.
Offensive Rebounding %
Conclusions
On the boards, Tennessee should be able to create an advantage for itself by eating up more offensive rebounds than usual. Under the other basket, things look pretty even.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusions
Tennessee is getting to the free throw line surprisingly (to me, anyway) well, and Missouri does like to foul. And although the Tigers generally make a ton of trips to the stripe, they’re going up against a Tennessee team that does a pretty good job not fouling. Missouri did get six more trips than Tennessee the last time out.
Go Vols.