No. 5 Tennessee looks for another Quadrant 1 win tonight as Mississippi State comes to Thompson-Boling. It’s Senior Night, and the game tips at 9:00 ET and is televised on the SEC Network.
Here are the teams’ respective four factors numbers.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
- Tennessee 55.6 (No. 16) (holding steady at 55.9 (No. 16))
- Mississippi State 54.6 (No. 36)
Prior opponents:
- Kentucky 53.6 (No. 59)
- Ole Miss 53.5 (No. 64)
- LSU: 52.7 (No. 93)
- Vanderbilt: 50.3 (No. 198)
- Kentucky: 52.8 (No. 93)
Conclusions: The Bulldogs have one of the best shooting offenses we’ve seen recently, which is saying something.
Turnover %
- Tennessee 15.6 (No. 20) (up from 15.9 (No. 24))
- Mississippi State 19.1 (No. 220)
Prior opponents:
- Kentucky 18.7 (No. 185)
- Ole Miss 18.7 (No. 172)
- LSU 19.0 (No. 196)
- Vanderbilt: 19.9 (No. 255)
- Kentucky: 18.5 (No. 158)
Conclusions: Oooh, these guys come bearing gifts! We like gifts.
Offensive Rebound %
- Tennessee 30.9 (No. 94) (down from 31.3 (No. 86))
- Mississippi State 34.6 (No. 23)
Prior opponents:
- Kentucky 37.9 (No. 4)
- Ole Miss 31.9 (No. 64)
- LSU 37.4 (No. 6)
- Vanderbilt: 28.6 (No. 178)
- Kentucky: 38.3 (No. 3)
Conclusions: The Bulldogs are better than the Vols at grabbing their own misses, but they’re not as good as either Kentucky or LSU in that department.
Free Throw Rate
- Tennessee 34.1 (No. 155) (down from 34.6 (No. 141))
- Mississippi State 33.0 (No. 188)
Prior opponents:
- Kentucky 42.2 (No. 14)
- Ole Miss 32.8 (No. 200)
- LSU 39.8 (No. 29)
- Vanderbilt: 44.8 (No. 7)
- Kentucky: 41 (No. 22)
Conclusions: This could be a welcome reprieve for the Vols, as the Bulldogs aren’t especially good at getting to the free throw line.
Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s EFG% is 55.6 (No. 16), while Mississippi State’s defense against that is 50.1 (No. 145).
When Mississippi State has the ball
The Bulldogs’ shooting offense is 54.6 (No. 36), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 46.6 (No. 23).
Conclusions
The hope here is that Tennessee will shoot about as well as it usually does and that Tennessee’s defense will impede the Bulldogs more than they’ll impede us.
Turnover %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s turnover % is 15.6 (No. 20), while the Bulldogs’ turnover defense is 20.0 (No. 92).
When Mississippi State has the ball
Mississippi State’s turnover % is 19.1 (No. 220), but Tennessee’s turnover defense is only marginally better, at 18.7 (No. 166).
Conclusions
The Vols should have an advantage in the turnovers category. They generally protect the ball well and shouldn’t be troubled too much by the defense. On the other side of the ball, they don’t create many turnovers, but should get plenty of freebies anyway.
Offensive Rebounding %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s OR% is 30.9 (No. 94), while Mississippi State’s defense in that category is 29.4 (No. 232).
When Mississippi State has the ball
The Bulldogs’ OR% is 34.6 (No. 23), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 29.8 (No. 248). As usual, this is the biggest advantage of the game for Tennessee’s opponent tonight.
Conclusions
Tennessee should be able to get its share of offensive rebounds, but the biggest threat tonight appears to be Mississippi State on the offensive boards. If the Vols don’t box out and rebound as a defense, this could spell trouble. The Bulldogs shoot very well and could do some real damage against a defense scattered by a missed shot.
Free Throw Rate
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34.1 (No. 155), while Mississippi State’s defense against that is 31.7 (No. 145).
When Mississippi State has the ball
The Bulldogs’ FT Rate is 33.0 (No. 188), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 34.2 (No. 216).
Conclusions
To me, this looks essentially like a stalemate, so I expect both teams to get about their average trips to the free throw line (20.55 for the Vols and 19.21 for the Bulldogs).
Summary and Score Prediction
Both teams sport high-powered, efficient-shooting offenses, but the Vols’ shooting defense should have more of an impact on the Bulldogs than vice versa. Tennessee also has an advantage in protecting the ball.
The danger for the Vols comes after Mississippi State misses shots. The Bulldogs are good at getting offensive rebounds, and Tennessee’s not especially well-equipped to keep them from doing it. Plus, I wonder if it’s more difficult to defend against good shooting teams after they get offensive rebounds when the defense is out of position.
The goals for the Vols:
- Make the most of their advantage
in efficient shooting percentage. - Box out. Get the rebound.
- When the Bulldogs get an offensive rebound, get back into proper defensive position quickly.
KenPom gives Tennessee a 78% chance of winning this one and puts the score at Tennessee 79, Mississippi State 71.
Go Vols.