Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game this Saturday against the Memphis Tigers. The conclusions are up front, and the details follow:
Summary and Score Prediction
Both teams are playing really good defense and have an opportunity to frustrate the other into poor shooting percentages. Tennessee’s charitable heart on turnovers could be disastrous against a team as greedy for turnovers as Memphis, but the Vols could make up some ground in rebounding, especially on the offensive boards. Both teams should have plenty of opportunities at the foul line, so hitting those when you get there is probably even more important than usual.
The goals for the Vols:
- Protect the ball.
- Make the most of an apparent rebounding advantage.
- Win the Free Throw Rate battle and shoot a higher percentage of free throws when you get there.
KenPom gives Tennessee a 70% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 74, Memphis 68.
My prediction: Tennessee 78, Memphis 72
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
- Tennessee 50.6 (No. 131)
- Memphis 52.2 (No. 81)
Tennessee and its prior opponents:
| Team | eFG% | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Washington | 51.4 | 86 |
| Mississippi St. | 51.2 | 93 |
| Memphis | 50.9 | 104 |
| Tennessee | 48.8 | 199 |
Conclusion: Among Tennessee’s prior opponents, Memphis is most like Florida State at shooting the ball. They’re quite a bit better than the Vols.
Turnover %
- Tennessee 20.3 (No. 218)
- Memphis 19.7 (No. 187)
Tennessee and its prior opponents:
| Team | TO% | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | 20.9 | 284 |
| Jacksonville St. | 21 | 293 |
| Mississippi St. | 21.1 | 298 |
| Missouri | 21.2 | 299 |
Conclusion: Neither team is especially good at protecting the ball, but Memphis is better. Among the Vols’ prior opponents, they’re most like VCU and Florida State.
Offensive Rebound %
- Tennessee 32.3 (No. 70)
- Memphis 34.8 (No. 31)
Tennessee and its prior opponents:
| Team | OR% | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi St. | 40 | 2 |
| LSU | 37.2 | 6 |
| Tennessee | 28.9 | 153 |
Conclusion: Memphis will be the best-rebounding team the Vols have played to date. Fortunately, Tennessee’s no slouch in this category, either.
Free Throw Rate
- Tennessee 40 (No. 42)
- Memphis 44.9 (No. 6)
Tennessee and its prior opponents:
| Team | FTRate | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | 37 | 68 |
| Mississippi St. | 36.9 | 69 |
| Mississippi | 36.5 | 74 |
| Tennessee | 34 | 129 |
Conclusion: Again, Memphis will be the best team the Vols have played when it comes to getting to the free-throw line. They compare best to Murray State at this point among prior Vols’ opponents. Tennessee is no slouch in this category, but Memphis appears to be clearly better at this point.
Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s eFG% is 50.6 (No. 131), and it will be going up against a defense that is 41.5 (No. 12).
When Memphis has the ball
The Tigers’ eFG% is 52.2 (No. 81), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 41.1 (No. 5).
Conclusions
Both teams are going to make it more difficult than usual for the other to shoot well.
Turnover %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee is still struggling with a turnover % of 20.3 (No. 218). The Tigers’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 23.3 (No. 41).
When Memphis has the ball
Memphis’ turnover % is 19.7 (No. 187), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20.2 (No. 142).
Conclusions
Expect some frustration at Tennessee’s tendency to turn the ball over because it will be exacerbated by Memphis’ better-than-most ability to force turnovers.
Offensive Rebounding %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s OR% is 32.3 (No. 70), and Memphis’ defense in that category is 31.1 (No. 271).
When Memphis has the ball
The Tigers’ OR% is 34.8 (No. 31), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 22.6 (No. 14).
Conclusions
The Vols have a huge advantage in rebounding under their own basket, largely because the Tigers aren’t very good there. Memphis is better on their own side of the court, but the Vols still have an advantage on that end. Bottom line: The Vols have an advantage rebounding the ball.
Free Throw Rate
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s FT Rate is 40 (No. 42), while Memphis’ defense against that is 35.3 (No. 248).
When Memphis has the ball
The Tigers’ FT Rate is 44.9 (No. 6), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 26.8 (No. 84).
Conclusions
Both teams know how to get to the line. Memphis is marginally better at it than Tennessee, but Tennessee is much better at keeping their opponents off the line. Here’s to hoping that that translates into more trips for the Vols.
Summary and Score Prediction
Both teams are playing really good defense and have an opportunity to frustrate the other into poor shooting percentages. Tennessee’s charitable heart on turnovers could be disastrous against a team as greedy for turnovers as Memphis, but the Vols could make up some ground in rebounding, especially on the offensive boards. Both teams should have plenty of opportunities at the foul line, so hitting those when you get there is probably even more important than usual.
The goals for the Vols:
- Protect the ball.
- Make the most of an apparent rebounding advantage.
- Win the Free Throw Rate battle and shoot a higher percentage of free throws when you get there.
KenPom gives Tennessee a 70% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 74, Memphis 68.
My prediction: Tennessee 78, Memphis 72
Go Vols.