Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Kentucky Wildcats. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:
Baseline
First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.
It should come as no surprise at this point that a Tennessee opponent has better shooting numbers than the Vols. Turnovers and offensive rebounds look about even, but Kentucky is better at defensive rebounds and getting to the free-throw line.
Summary and Score Prediction
Shooting Blues, the Vols got ’em and probably aren’t getting rid of them tomorrow against Kentucky, but should be kept in the game by their shooting defense. Expect no surprises relating to turnovers for either team, but expect a fair amount of frustration in the form of offensive boards and trips to the free-throw line for Kentucky.
The goals for the Vols:
- As always, make the most of the advantage on defense because the offense is probably going to need it.
- Minimize Kentucky’s offensive boards by boxing out and getting the ball after missed shots.
- That thing you did against Alabama to buck the trend of them living at the line? Do that again against the guys in blue.
KenPom gives Tennessee a somewhat surprising 51% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 66, Kentucky 65. WooGoVols!
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Conclusion: Most like Cincinnati and Wisconsin, and quite a bit better than the Vols.
Turnover %
Conclusion: Well, turnovers per game may look even, but turnover percentage is a different story. Among Tennessee’s prior opponents, Kentucky is most like Chattanooga and VCU, and they appear to be much better than the Vols.
Offensive Rebound %
Conclusion: Most like Florida State and Murray State. Not a whole lot better than Tennessee.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusion: Oof. The best team we’ve played so far this season at getting to the line. But here’s a bit of good news: Alabama averages nearly 29 trips to the line per game, and against Tennessee they only got there 8 times. More of that magic, please.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
Conclusions
Ugh. The crystal ball says more frustrating shooting percentages for the Vols tomorrow against the Wildcats. Fortunately, they should have some trouble with Tennessee’s defense, too.
Turnover %
Conclusions
Tennessee comes bearing gifts, but apparently Kentucky is too proud to take charity or something. On the other end, the Wildcats do a better job of protecting the ball once they have it, but the Vols are better burglars. Weakness on weakness and meh against meh.
Offensive Rebounding %
Conclusions
The news here is that Tennessee is all too willing to give up offensive boards, so Kentucky could go on a spree. The Vols are getting better at this, though, so maybe not.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusions
These numbers suggest that we could get to the line some but they could spend most of the game there. As I said before, the good news is that this spot forecasted terribly for the Alabama game, and the Vols shot 32 free throws to the Tide’s 8. Again! Again! Again!
Go Vols.