As Will said earlier, no game matters more to the Vols’ hopes for a 1-seed than tomorrow’s rematch with Kentucky.
But if the Vols are going to make this a game, they’re going to have to do a lot better in Thompson-Boling than they did at Rupp. Two weeks ago, Tennessee allowed Kentucky to squeeze the last little bit of juice out of its advantage getting to the free throw line, and at the same time, failed miserably at getting anything out of its own advantage in shooting percentage. If they’re going to do better tomorrow, they’ll have to do better at those two things.
We’ve updated the teams’ respective four factors numbers below to remind ourselves what’s most important tomorrow and why.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
- Tennessee 55.9 (No. 16) (holding steady at 55.9 (No. 15))
- Kentucky 53.6 (No. 59)
Prior opponents:
- Ole Miss 53.5 (No. 64)
- LSU: 52.7 (No. 93)
- Vanderbilt: 50.3 (No. 198)
- Kentucky: 52.8 (No. 93)
Conclusions: Kentucky has been shooting the ball better lately, while Tennessee has been on a bit of a slide. But the Vols are still more efficient than the Wildcats. The advantage for the Vols was even more pronounced heading into the game two weeks ago, but they completely and totally squandered it. Tennessee shot only 40.7% from the field to Kentucky’s 54.7%, and they shot only 28% from the arc to Kentucky’s 38.5%.
The Vols have to do much better than that. The good news is that they can and usually do.
Turnover %
- Tennessee 15.9 (No. 24) (holding steady at 15.9 (No. 23))
- Kentucky 18.7 (No. 185)
Prior opponents:
- Ole Miss 18.7 (No. 172)
- LSU 19.0 (No. 196)
- Vanderbilt: 19.9 (No. 255)
- Kentucky: 18.5 (No. 158)
Conclusions: The Vols still have the advantage here despite a tendency to be a bit more generous lately than they were early in the season.
Offensive Rebound %
- Tennessee 31.3 (No. 86) (down from 31.8 (No. 74))
- Kentucky 37.9 (No. 4)
Prior opponents:
- Ole Miss 31.9 (No. 64)
- LSU 37.4 (No. 6)
- Vanderbilt: 28.6 (No. 178)
- Kentucky: 38.3 (No. 3)
Conclusions: This is what Kentucky does best.
Free Throw Rate
- Tennessee 34.6 (No. 141) (down from 34.8 (No. 136))
- Kentucky 42.2 (No. 14)
Prior opponents:
- Ole Miss 32.8 (No. 200)
- LSU 39.8 (No. 29)
- Vanderbilt: 44.8 (No. 7)
- Kentucky: 41 (No. 22)
Conclusions: The Wildcats are extremely good at getting to the free throw line as well.
Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s EFG% is 55.9 (No. 16), while Kentucky’s defense against that is 47.0 (No. 31).
When Kentucky has the ball
The Wildcats’ shooting offense is 53.6 (No. 59), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 46.9 (No. 27).
Conclusions
Even when you account for the defenses, this is a paper advantage for the Vols. They cannot squander it like they did in their first meeting with Kentucky.
Turnover %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s turnover % is 15.9 (No. 24), while the Wildcats’ turnover defense is 19.6 (No. 115).
When Kentucky has the ball
Kentucky’s turnover % is 18.7 (No. 185), but Tennessee’s turnover defense isn’t any better, at 18.5 (No. 187).
Conclusions
Tennessee appears to have a slight advantage in the turnover category tomorrow. In the first meeting, the Vols had 9 to the Wildcats’ 11. It really wasn’t a factor, and it doesn’t look like it will be much of one tomorrow, either.
Offensive Rebounding %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s OR% is 31.3 (No. 86), while Kentucky’s defense in that category is 26.0 (No. 69).
When Kentucky has the ball
The Wildcats’ OR% is 37.9 (No. 4), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 30.0 (No. 252), which makes this the biggest advantage of the game for the Kentucky offense.
Conclusions
Kentucky has a distinct advantage over Tennessee on the boards. This was a problem in the prior game, as Kentucky had 39 rebounds to Tennessee’s 26. They had 12 offensive boards to the Vols’ 9. They’ll likely outrebound Tennessee again tomorrow, but the Vols need to make sure it’s not a runaway train.
Free Throw Rate
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34.6 (No. 141), while Kentucky’s defense against that is 26.3 (No. 24).
When Kentucky has the ball
The Wildcats’ FT Rate is 42.2 (No. 14), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 33.3 (No. 190).
Conclusions
This, too, is a huge advantage on paper for Kentucky. It, along with Tennessee’s uncharacteristic poor shooting, was one of the primary reasons the game at Rupp went south. The Wildcats shot 33 free throws to Tennessee’s 18. They’ll probably have the advantage again tomorrow because it’s what they do. But the Vols have to do much better than that.
Summary and Score Prediction
Tennessee absolutely must do a better job of making the most of its apparent advantage in shooting efficiency this time around. If they can do that, and if they can minimize the Wildcats’ advantages in getting rebounds and free throw attempts, this game will likely come down to the wire.
The goals for the Vols:
- Run the offense through the elbow and/or the post. Take good shots. Shoot jumpers only if they’re wide open off a good assist. Otherwise, drive to the bucket to hopefully draw some fouls.
- Box out. Get the rebound.
- Limit the Wildcats’ penetration. Stay between the ball and the basket. Defend without fouling. Don’t foul jump shooters.
KenPom gives Tennessee a 59% chance of winning this one and puts the score at Tennessee 73, Kentucky 71.
Go Vols.