Here’s the Four Factors Gameplan for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Auburn Tigers. As always, the conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:
Baseline
First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.
And here’s how the last game between these two teams played out:
Okay, so turnovers were a total aberration last game. Do not repeat.
Summary and Score Prediction
As we said in advance of the last game between these two teams, the numbers suggest that Tennessee will have its hands full against an Auburn team elite at offensive rebounding and getting to the free-throw line. But, the Vols did have 17-point lead at one point against them less than two weeks and although they ended up losing by 7, they pretty much gave the game away in the form of an aberrant 24 turnovers, so there’s reason to believe. (I mean, if you don’t already believe after what happened against Kentucky.)
The goals for the Vols, which are the same as last time, but with a certain portion now made bold:
- Sharpen the sword of the shooting defense; it will be needed.
- Don’t turn the ball over as much as usual. Possessions will be especially valuable.
- Do what you can do in boxing out, rebounding the ball, and defending without fouling. This is where they’ll either beat you or give you the game.
KenPom actually likes the Vols at home and puts the score at Tennessee 68, Auburn 66. Buckle up, and keep your eyes on The Incredible Fulk.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Conclusion: Most like Memphis and VCU and actually not much better than Tennessee.
Turnover %
Conclusion: Most like Florida and South Carolina. Tennessee has had put up some major stinkers in this category throughout the season, including in the prior meeting with Auburn. They have the ability to limit that, though. It’s just a question of whether they do in any given game.
Offensive Rebound %
Conclusion: These guys have a backpack full of kryptonite in store for the Vols.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusion: Sheesh, that’s not fair. Dudes are shooting 27 free throws per game.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
Conclusions
At this point, I think Tennessee is better than its season-long numbers suggest, and its defense is every bit as good as the numbers suggest. I’m giving the advantage to the Vols here.
Turnover %
Conclusions
This really should have been much closer to even last game, but for the Vols going on a major binge. Let’s hope they at least stay in character tomorrow and don’t give up more than 13 or 14.
Offensive Rebounding %
Conclusions
Alright, that is just really bad news right there. I don’t even know what you tell a bad defensive rebounding team going up against an excellent offensive rebounding team. Just don’t bleed out and get in as many licks as you can. On the other hand, we did get almost as many as they did last game, so that’s one actual way you can make up for it.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusions
Oh, gross. Ick. This makes it look like we’re just going to play the entire game standing there at the foul line watching them shoot. Which is kind of how it turned out last time around, with them shooting 27 times to our 17. Maybe we should just back off a little when defending, I don’t know. At least early, so nobody important has to sit on the bench when needed.
Go Vols.